Question - do you know how much BTC was sold by the company Grayscale from the beginning of the year until today? The data is quite interesting because it is about 200 000 BTC worth about $9.26 billion. In other words, no disaster would happen for Bitcoin because it is only about 1% of the max supply, and even less than that if we compare it to the BTC that are currently in circulation.
I also referenced this number 200K BTC, but perhaps we are talking about BTC selling behavior at different times.
urrently we are in the early stages of the uptrend, strong buying from other ETF providers such as BlackRock and Fidelity are enough to absorb all of the BTC sold by GrayScale, and are even enough to support BTC prices on the Spot market.
Conversely, if MS were to sell 200K BTC right at the peak of the market this season, say in 2025 at 150K USD, this selling could prompt a simultaneous sell-off in the market: the selling force completely overwhelms the buying force and the BTC price can return to 100K USD extremely quickly. Worse, BTC spot ETF can completely make the situation worse when traditional investors also want to take profits, the negative impact will be amplified and we may have the opportunity to buy back BTC at 50K USD.
Just realize this, bitcoin is far more profitable than the company Microstrategy. So it literally doesn't make sense for them to sell bitcoin. What would they do with it? Keep it in cash? Great now they just exchanged a hard currency for a weak currency, pretty terrible decision. Bitcoin IS the thing that is growing the company. Selling Bitcoin would only hurt the growth of the company.
The only reasons they would sell Bitcoin, other than some tax loss harvesting like they did a couple years ago (though that same quarter they bought more Bitcoin than they had sold), would be to have money to grow the business if they thought they can grow the business at a faster rate than Bitcoin's price growth, or to time the market and sell high to buy in low.
Michael Saylor has been pretty straight forward about not trying to time the market, they just DCA and don't sell. So I doubt they are going to bother timing the market cycles and selling during a bull run to buy back on the crash. They might, but so far it doesn't seem like they have any intention of doing that. And it would kind of ruin their reputation as a Bitcoin accumulator and make them look more like a Bitcoin trader.
And the other reason, to grow the business, well they can also just raise money through equity offerings to grow the business, they don't need to sell Bitcoin. And since Bitcoin is the thing driving their price of their stock, it would make more sense to sell some equity rather than sell the thing that gives that equity most of its value.
So the people who think Microstrategy is going to at some point just dump all its bitcoin, like when it reaches a certain price, just aren't thinking through the whole reason why Microstrategy has adotped Bitcoin. It essentially never makes sense for them to sell Bitcoin. They aren't a person who is saving up in Bitcoin to retire or to buy things later in life. They are a company whose goal is to grow its market cap. Owning Bitcoin, and buying more and more Bitcoin, is THE thing that grows their market cap. Selling Bitcoin would be completely opposite of the basic economic goals of the company.
If Saylor and MS will hold BTC through the next crypto winter, they will have a neew fan, is me
If the business situation continues to be positive and shareholders continue to trust MS's investment strategy, MS will have no reason to sell their BTC. On the contrary, if the market situation is not favorable and shareholders want to maximize business profits, it would not be unusual for MS to sell part or all of BTC right in the distribution area of this season.
Personally, I also want MS to hold BTC forever so that this uptrend lasts a little longer, giving altcoins more time to grow and create greater profits for wise investors!