When will we see another Bitcoin 4 week boom such as in 2017? - page 3.

WinslowIII

member

Activity: 308

Merit: 35

Quote from: rhomelmabini on May 05, 2019, 04:03:46 PM

Quote from: Lucius on May 05, 2019, 08:24:32 AM

I do not think it is realistic to expect the same thing to happen again, in the identical manner. 2017 was a specific year, and it followed after halving 2016, also in expectation of bitcoin futures for which most did not actually know what is it actually. It was an ideal combination for bull run, and media is added oil to that fire creating a huge FOMO effect.

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/top-5-bitcoin-price-prediction-charts-for-bitcoin-halving-2020-5134686

If you look at above chart it is easy to see that there is a fairly regular pattern which shows that we are currently in the accumulation phase, and we will soon be entering a period of one year before halving. I say few times before that time for next big bull run should be expected in 2021, probably a 1 or 1.5 year after halving. But that does not mean that 2019 or 2020 should be considered boring years, the price is likely to grow steadily before next bull run.

There are really patterns to be followed and if we are really on accumulation phase as what chart tells then I guess it's better to go get some bags by now rather than just see it in plain sight or wait for an ATH again this year.

I'd prefer doing some TA because somehow it tells decision and behaviour of the market, indeed if halving is nearing price is ridiculously increasing better to believe that way.

Loading bags seems like a good idea, but for me it's after Tuesday and China's mining decision deadline.

rhomelmabini

hero member

Activity: 2030

Merit: 578

No God or Kings, only BITCOIN.

Quote from: Lucius on May 05, 2019, 08:24:32 AM

I do not think it is realistic to expect the same thing to happen again, in the identical manner. 2017 was a specific year, and it followed after halving 2016, also in expectation of bitcoin futures for which most did not actually know what is it actually. It was an ideal combination for bull run, and media is added oil to that fire creating a huge FOMO effect.

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/top-5-bitcoin-price-prediction-charts-for-bitcoin-halving-2020-5134686

If you look at above chart it is easy to see that there is a fairly regular pattern which shows that we are currently in the accumulation phase, and we will soon be entering a period of one year before halving. I say few times before that time for next big bull run should be expected in 2021, probably a 1 or 1.5 year after halving. But that does not mean that 2019 or 2020 should be considered boring years, the price is likely to grow steadily before next bull run.

There are really patterns to be followed and if we are really on accumulation phase as what chart tells then I guess it's better to go get some bags by now rather than just see it in plain sight or wait for an ATH again this year.

I'd prefer doing some TA because somehow it tells decision and behaviour of the market, indeed if halving is nearing price is ridiculously increasing better to believe that way.

WinslowIII

member

Activity: 308

Merit: 35

Quote from: JollyGood on May 05, 2019, 03:17:23 PM

Quote from: Lucius on May 05, 2019, 08:24:32 AM

I do not think it is realistic to expect the same thing to happen again, in the identical manner. 2017 was a specific year, and it followed after halving 2016, also in expectation of bitcoin futures for which most did not actually know what is it actually. It was an ideal combination for bull run, and media is added oil to that fire creating a huge FOMO effect.

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/top-5-bitcoin-price-prediction-charts-for-bitcoin-halving-2020-5134686

If you look at above chart it is easy to see that there is a fairly regular pattern which shows that we are currently in the accumulation phase, and we will soon be entering a period of one year before halving. I say few times before that time for next big bull run should be expected in 2021, probably a 1 or 1.5 year after halving. But that does not mean that 2019 or 2020 should be considered boring years, the price is likely to grow steadily before next bull run.

I never took those types of charts seriously, things are more complicated than that.

The change in -+ is not covered by the charts corectly since it cannot forecast the future correctly otherwise everybody would be buying and selling at the right times.

I wish I knew when the next bull run would be but there is no way of knowing.

You just answered your own question why everyone doesn't buy and sell at the same time, they don't believe in the charts or the reasoning behind why they act like they do around the halvings. It's all economics though, less new supply equals higher price. The only way this cycle stops is if the demand for bitcoin crashes - which could happen.

JollyGood

legendary

Activity: 2534

Merit: 1713

Top Crypto Casino

Quote from: Lucius on May 05, 2019, 08:24:32 AM

I do not think it is realistic to expect the same thing to happen again, in the identical manner. 2017 was a specific year, and it followed after halving 2016, also in expectation of bitcoin futures for which most did not actually know what is it actually. It was an ideal combination for bull run, and media is added oil to that fire creating a huge FOMO effect.

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/top-5-bitcoin-price-prediction-charts-for-bitcoin-halving-2020-5134686

If you look at above chart it is easy to see that there is a fairly regular pattern which shows that we are currently in the accumulation phase, and we will soon be entering a period of one year before halving. I say few times before that time for next big bull run should be expected in 2021, probably a 1 or 1.5 year after halving. But that does not mean that 2019 or 2020 should be considered boring years, the price is likely to grow steadily before next bull run.

I never took those types of charts seriously, things are more complicated than that.

The change in -+ is not covered by the charts corectly since it cannot forecast the future correctly otherwise everybody would be buying and selling at the right times.

I wish I knew when the next bull run would be but there is no way of knowing.

WinslowIII

member

Activity: 308

Merit: 35

Same as before, the year after the next halving. Pay attention to the past, it usually repeats for the same reasons.

klaaas

hero member

Activity: 1568

Merit: 544

The same drive can push it up to those values. People that are skeptic about it are witnessing that the trust is still there and is growing, it will give them the convince to step into bitcoin.

YuginKadoya

legendary

Activity: 3038

Merit: 1169

We can say that we are in the bull run so far the far is intendedly spiking in a manner of waves it is really unpredictable and relying on past events may not outline to the one we have now, But I really think that we can have another spike just like it did when the price go to $5800 mark But in my opinion it will likely to fall in August or the month of September maybe? But for now, the price is resisting going to the $6000 USD so that was the month we can have a good trading price for bitcoin.

1Referee

legendary

Activity: 2170

Merit: 1427

Quote from: JollyGood on May 05, 2019, 12:23:12 PM

I agree, we definitely do not want to see mindless spikes reaching beyond the $19k mark but a gradual increase with plenty of assurance through stability is the preferred route.

The good thing about these crazy spikes is that you can short them. In most cases what goes up hard comes down hard, so the odds do favor a short in that regard. It happens regardless of what our opinion is, so why not utilize these opportunities the best we can? Accumulating more Bitcoin is my main priority, and these crazy market movements are perfect for that.

$6000 is what I want to see be broken or reject our current rally. We're so close that it's difficult to say something about the direction. If we do break it confidently, I'll open a long position and ride it out. If not, then I'm fine with my current short. In the end, we're either right or wrong, but it's important to put your money where your mouth is. We have way too many empty talkers here not doing what they believe in.

JollyGood

legendary

Activity: 2534

Merit: 1713

Top Crypto Casino

Quote from: Jating on May 05, 2019, 07:50:37 AM

Unless some big entity again are ready to pour their money on the market to push the price further, I don't see a dramatic rise in a 4 week span.

For me it's better to see the price slowly gaining, as compare to a massive spike that we have seen before the end of 2017. For sure when the price goes to the moon again we will see another bubble, which in a sense we doesn't want to see at this point.

Those 4 weeks (well around 6 weeks) at the end of 2017 were immense. It showed the potential and scope for Bitcoin and other crypto alongside the volatility.

I agree, we definitely do not want to see mindless spikes reaching beyond the $19k mark but a gradual increase with plenty of assurance through stability is the preferred route.

gentlemand

legendary

Activity: 2590

Merit: 3015

Welt Am Draht

Quote from: JollyGood on May 05, 2019, 11:48:13 AM

I do not see Bitcoin rising to that level of $70,000 to $100,000 in the next bubble, that is way too much an over-estimation in my opinion.

It's totally possible. No idea how likely it is.

I think it's largely going to depend on whether the on ramps up their game. If there is a better and bigger selection of avenues, the real biggie being a significant legacy trading platform, then that type of price level is not pie in the sky.

If we're stuck with the same old creaking exchanges and futures continue to grow then it's a different matter.

JollyGood

legendary

Activity: 2534

Merit: 1713

Top Crypto Casino

Quote from: BitcoinHodler on May 05, 2019, 07:19:57 AM

it has not found any stability around $5500 market, this price is just a passing level on the way up above the $6k resistance. the "stability" was the prior 5 months when price was stuck in the $3k range and everyone has been accumulating bitcoin at a cheap price. now we are just rising...

as for the next "big jump up" like 2017 it will only happen during the end when we are already in another bubble possibly this time somewhere around $70,000 to $100,000

That I agree with, yes the $3000 mark that Bitcoin was at for many months must have been the real stability point in recent times.

I do not see Bitcoin rising to that level of $70,000 to $100,000 in the next bubble, that is way too much an over-estimation in my opinion.

gentlemand

legendary

Activity: 2590

Merit: 3015

Welt Am Draht

Quote from: peter0425 on May 05, 2019, 10:18:21 AM

And echo the sentiments that we don't want to see that happen again. Obviously we wanted the price to go up but not like that though, it's scary because it will be followed by another massive dump for sure.

It's a pretty inelastic supply that occasionally gets walloped by bursts of excitement. Further booms and busts are effectively baked in to Bitcoin's nature and human psychology.

The interesting thing is when does it level out? Does it need to be bigger than gold? I'd say BTC is vastly more useful so it would need to keep swelling beyond that until saturation had been reached to have a chance of getting beyond this phase.

peter0425

sr. member

Activity: 2618

Merit: 439

Quote from: JollyGood on May 05, 2019, 06:25:35 AM

Between 17th November 2017 and 17th December 2017 the price of Bitcoin rose from around $7400 to $19300 (according to CMC)

Since that period when almost the whole market was riding high it came back down and hovered around £3000 for a long time. Now finding stability Bitcoin is around $5500 mark.

What next for Bitcoin? What are the market factors needed in pushing for another bull run or mass buying spree?

That rise was due to CBoE and CME offering bitcoin future contracts. So there's a lot of irrational buyers and FOMO was real. But this time, we don't have that kind of news to bring the market to such sudden price increase. And echo the sentiments that we don't want to see that happen again. Obviously we wanted the price to go up but not like that though, it's scary because it will be followed by another massive dump for sure.

gentlemand

legendary

Activity: 2590

Merit: 3015

Welt Am Draht

I hope it never happens again that intensely. Ultimately it didn't do the majority any good.

What we don't need is another ejaculation followed by an endless hangover in the near future. The more intense the spurt, the longer it takes to regenerate. I'd prefer the odd twitch of life followed by back to steadiness until post halving.

However I suspect there are more people poised to jump in if there's a sign things are going to kick off than there were in 2017 so it's a futile wish.

tomahawk9

hero member

Activity: 2086

Merit: 994

Cats on Mars

We might see that 4-week surge again once the bull market finally consolidates and prices begin to skyrocket.

Quote from: JollyGood on May 05, 2019, 06:25:35 AM

Now finding stability Bitcoin is around $5500 mark.

We haven't seen any type of consolidation around that number so I'd hardly call it a "stable" mark. The period of stability was predominant around the 3.9k which lasted for a bit over a month before the last massive spike in the price.

Quote from: JollyGood on May 05, 2019, 06:25:35 AM

What are the market factors needed in pushing for another bull run or mass buying spree?

Perhaps, large sums of smart money entering the cryptosphere, triggering a pump in the prices which results in a massive wave of FOMO? Or maybe the bulls will take over the market and start pumping the prices to attract FOMO buyers? Either way, can you spot the common denominator? Well, we need that if we want to see a bull run as big as the last one.

Lucius

legendary

Activity: 3234

Merit: 5637

Blackjack.fun-Free Raffle-Join&Win $50🎲

I do not think it is realistic to expect the same thing to happen again, in the identical manner. 2017 was a specific year, and it followed after halving 2016, also in expectation of bitcoin futures for which most did not actually know what is it actually. It was an ideal combination for bull run, and media is added oil to that fire creating a huge FOMO effect.

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/top-5-bitcoin-price-prediction-charts-for-bitcoin-halving-2020-5134686

If you look at above chart it is easy to see that there is a fairly regular pattern which shows that we are currently in the accumulation phase, and we will soon be entering a period of one year before halving. I say few times before that time for next big bull run should be expected in 2021, probably a 1 or 1.5 year after halving. But that does not mean that 2019 or 2020 should be considered boring years, the price is likely to grow steadily before next bull run.

BitcoinHodler

hero member

Activity: 1456

Merit: 579

HODLing is an art, not just a word...

Quote from: Jating on May 05, 2019, 07:50:37 AM

Unless some big entity again are ready to pour their money on the market to push the price further, I don't see a dramatic rise in a 4 week span.

For me it's better to see the price slowly gaining, as compare to a massive spike that we have seen before the end of 2017. For sure when the price goes to the moon again we will see another bubble, which in a sense we doesn't want to see at this point.

but the price in the past 10 years didn't rise from zero to $20000 because of some big entity pouring money in! instead it went up because of the same demand that has existed in the market and still does.
i do prefer the slow rises too because it builds up a much more solid support than a big spike does but when we are under priced we should always expect the big jumps when they let go of the pressure to keep it down.

Jating

hero member

Activity: 2842

Merit: 772

Unless some big entity again are ready to pour their money on the market to push the price further, I don't see a dramatic rise in a 4 week span.

For me it's better to see the price slowly gaining, as compare to a massive spike that we have seen before the end of 2017. For sure when the price goes to the moon again we will see another bubble, which in a sense we doesn't want to see at this point.

BitcoinHodler

hero member

Activity: 1456

Merit: 579

HODLing is an art, not just a word...

it has not found any stability around $5500 market, this price is just a passing level on the way up above the $6k resistance. the "stability" was the prior 5 months when price was stuck in the $3k range and everyone has been accumulating bitcoin at a cheap price. now we are just rising...

as for the next "big jump up" like 2017 it will only happen during the end when we are already in another bubble possibly this time somewhere around $70,000 to $100,000

JollyGood

legendary

Activity: 2534

Merit: 1713

Top Crypto Casino

Between 17th November 2017 and 17th December 2017 the price of Bitcoin rose from around $7400 to $19300 (according to CMC)

Since that period when almost the whole market was riding high it came back down and hovered around £3000 for a long time. Now finding stability Bitcoin is around $5500 mark.

What next for Bitcoin? What are the market factors needed in pushing for another bull run or mass buying spree?

Topic: When will we see another Bitcoin 4 week boom such as in 2017? - page 3. (Read 12872 times)