Topic: Where are we going now?? (Read 2152 times)

Not from my experience at all. Of course, that rule can only apply if a person is capable of distinguishing knowing from hubris.

I shall also confess, that most of the time that I know, is when I am already on the wrong side of a trade and facing a potential kick in the balls. i then swap sides of the trade and these are the times when i generally win (or avoid losing) pretty big. Sitting trading thinking i am too clever is normally when i make lots of small losses, in stupid trades, that soon add up (despite being a bear, i am/was flipping between both sides of trade all the time). 'Knowing' is unfortunately not something that can be done on purpose, but more a growing instinctual attitude towards positions that have already been taken based on some hair-brained idea or emotional bias. Naturally, the more mental and financial energy I invest in Bitcoin, the more likely I am to get that sense of 'knowing'. Right now, I am not tuned into Bitcoin and have no open positions and I quite frankly don't fucking know what it is going to do next. The last I did know, was that Bitcoin was going to go seriously down, and it has, but that was yesterday and now it is today.

I disagree . When you feel you really *know* is what loses you money.
Realising you (one) "don't have fkn clue" saves you (one) loads.

I disagree. It is the casual throw away opinions that will lose you money. When you feel you really know, which comes at least for me as much as a function of intuition as anything else, is more often than not when you are going to place (or not place) your money on the right track. But I am bored of putting so much emotional and mental energy into this shit and have switched off a bit from it. I am not trading at the moment, I have not been watching the markets like a hawk, I don't have a 'feel' for the trading momentum behind the market, I don't have a fkn clue what is going on right now really.....except I can see that it keeps going down.

My $380 range rebound 'prediction', is nothing more than Tech Analysis 101 applied to a still very bearish short-term outlook on Bitcoin. However, it must be said, it is uncanny how often Bitcoin has played such pivotal price levels in the past.

Im sorry I snapped at you matt 
will you ever forgive me?

Having been here a while, I've found they are the only opinions worth having

I gotta say, breaking 266 wouldn't look at all odd on the log chart. all the same, we would be aiming to the moon.
As an Elliott Wave analyst I believe that this could be a fourth wave, if this is the case it would be necessary to bottom within the price range of the previous fourth wave of lower fractal, 266-120.
It would be very fitting to me.
for now, I just wanna get my coins out of any exchanges while this is so hot, so Ill be looking to buy at 380-480.

First off, I would like to state that I am not spitting this 'analysis' out through a mouth of grinding teeth, utterly convinced by what I am saying and totally intolerant to any voices of disagreement. This is because like I said, I have kind of hit a saturation point with the amount of mental energy I can focus into reading and playing the Bitcoin markets. This is more a casual throw-away 'opinion' that I have come to without really focusing much attention on it.

Bitcoin has consistently found resistance or support off all the major benchmark pivotal price points. I was just looking at the $540 on Bitstamp from Dec 5th 2013 last night and was thinking about placing a buy-in at this level, but I ended up not bothering.....I really didn't expect Bitcoin to do anything but hover around $700 for a few more days, but obviously it hit and would have been a nice little earner. Next obvious benchmark price would be $380 on Bitstamp. This would put Bitcoin below the 200 day MA, something that Bitcoin has always done in its previous post crash history. For these reasons, I shall most certainly be placing buy/ins around this level, which will probably be overshot somewhat, but followed by a vigorous bounce.

Whether that would be the ultimate bottom or not, will depend on many things and won't become clearer until after the event. If the market were to play out in this way, and I were to get a $380 region buy-in triggered, then I would still be very ready to cut losses or take profits depending on how things were shaping up.

If Bitcoin stays true to its previous form, and the form of most parabolic bubble assets in history, we will know when the bottom is in because the price will grind along for a relatively long period of time. There will be no mad $200 bounce to ride.

Fair play. Seems we are on roughly the same page. I'm just gonna be buying with fresh fiat during these sour times, and holding what I already have, don't want to risk selling and having to buy back higher which I am notoriously good at (learned this way before BTC was in play).

You have any thoughts on where we will bottom yet? Or are you waiting.

For me I think obvious action will be around $450 (gox price - I think that *was* relevant back then, but maybe it was a tad lower on other exchanges) if that holds up then we might have found the bottom. It would be suspiciously close to a 68% fib retrace from ATH too... not that I believe in TA think these spikes to 100 are just noise created by freaks trying to cause a bit more fuss. (I also think if these players are doing that, then they are doing it for a reason and it will inevitably be followed by huge buying eventually as they will want to drive the price way above and beyond what it was to make good on their cheap acquisition)

If it goes through ~$450 then I expect the previous high at $266 will be an interesting calling point. I don't think it'll go there though. That BTC she be crazy though...

Nope.

Decided that I didn't trust Bitfinex. A few days after I pulled my funds from the exchange they had that Bitcoin at $10'000 hack. Who knows how I would have been affected but I can get an easier nights sleep for not having funds anywhere in Bitcoin except USD on Bitstamp. It pains me that I can't short but I am getting a bit bored of trading and being glued to these stupid fucking charts 24/7, being woken from my sleep whenever the market is moving in a direction by Bitcoin dreams (seriously).  

What I am really wanting, is a good long opportunity where I can just sit back and leave it, and I hardly think I will need the instincts of a wolf for that. Bitcoin will slump down further and further, spiking down and bouncing up, providing great trading opportunities both long and short, before stagnating in a drawn out slumber, just as it did after the last two bubbles, and just like every crashed financial asset has behaved in history. I won't get the absolute bottom, but I will get much cheaper prices than what Bitcoin is now. Much much cheaper.

You can't tell me you aren't trading this action!? Short sellers dream isn't it

In that case; Onward Christian Soldiers....Marching off to Death!

WW1 i think we won that one didn't we? 

It's more of a snow white thing. Every day the USD looks in the mirror and asks who is the most valuable of them all, and every day the mirror comes back and tells him BTC. heheh.

This is just the part where the huntsman takes BTC out into the forest to kill it, but BTC pleads for it's life and so the huntsman spares it.


Tru story bro.

Sounds like the kind of put on faux bravoure that WW1 conscripts may have put on as they march off towards certain slaughter.

yeah, weak hands would only affect those using stop losses in this case.
are there many of those?
not me.

It's time to get over this "weak hands" thingy. Most of the people that sold when hearing the news have already bought back with a small % gain.
Not all people who sell during a crash are always weak hands. Some of them have some very strong ones to play with.

The problem is that this is a very unusual situation in the world of markets. In other markets trading would have been halted at some point during the panic causing pain to slowly extend into the future. In Bitcoin world the panic just played out with full trading in it's full glory like a supernova and it may have its long term significance. May...    Gotta appreciate the beauty of it either way!

Kind of tough to call it that when you compare volume on any of the exchanges to the 12-17 capitulation. I don't trust a bottom tested for only 2 minutes..... not in this context.

To the moon, of course.. a catapult must be tensioned before launch.

Hi Ho, Hi Ho, its off to stamp we go!

I've finally come out of retirement and am shunting some fiat back onto an exchange to resume buying.

Nothing hasty just a little order ladder down to $100, these streets are starting to look a little off colour...

If we go through $100 well I may have to move some more!

Thats where I am going at least

I thinkn Gox decided to buy back the coins they got hustled out of by breaking the market and there is a good chance we storm to new highs here.

I am not betting that way, kind of meh as far as what happens next but since we didn't go to zero, if there is any goldrush mindset still in the air round coins then yeah we could go a lot higher now that the weak hands are flushed.

Wall Street is not here yet, etf's and winklevii and Fortress all in the wings so... ain;t over yet.

Could be wrong though so grain of salt.