Where Do We Go From Here - Technical Thoughts on BTC Price

Trade-Winds

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Quote from: Trade-Winds on June 04, 2014, 02:12:48 AM

The current price action is causing a bit of a messy top to become evident (2 on chart) with the $680 zone a bridge too far at the moment. However upward momentum from the last couple weeks remains nice and strong. So a bull/bear battle now at the higher end of the $600s. As long as it stays above the flag breakout ($600 zone) then bulls keep the upper hand, for the moment though i am leaning towards more sideways action keeping below the $680 or so top.

If and when it does break this current top I'd expect a quick $100 or so run to the high $700s in a matter of days. I would be buying the breakout for sure.

Messy top on the daily chart is cleaning itself up quite nicely into a continuation triangle (2) which could predict breakout anytime now through $700. Volume is down whilst price consolidates in a narrow range (3) which is a good confirmatory signal as sellers are not active. Lets see....

Bit_Happy

legendary

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A Great Time to Start Something!

Quote from: Trade-Winds on June 06, 2014, 02:19:01 AM

Quote from: Bit_Happy on June 06, 2014, 02:06:45 AM

Quote from: smoothie on June 05, 2014, 10:58:08 PM

UP we go

The Bitcoin fundamentals are so strong, this is not the best time to care "too much" about technical indicators, imo.
Technical indicators are an important tool, but how many tools do you need to use when your car is running perfectly?

Ha ha probably right, but perfectly working car still needs fuel (tool) oil (tool) air in tyres (tool) etc. I am just looking at charts as I enjoy it, but yes fundamentals are fantastically strong and the market is still very small relative to opportunity.

Fair enough, I also enjoy charts and TA has real value (some of the time)
My favorite technical "indicator" is when there is a strong, "obvious" signal that turns out to be false...Catching good traders by surprise, and everyone goes nuts causing a big, fast, unbalanced market.....Those are great.

Trade-Winds

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Quote from: Bit_Happy on June 06, 2014, 02:06:45 AM

Quote from: smoothie on June 05, 2014, 10:58:08 PM

UP we go

The Bitcoin fundamentals are so strong, this is not the best time to care "too much" about technical indicators, imo.
Technical indicators are an important tool, but how many tools do you need to use when your car is running perfectly?

Ha ha probably right, but perfectly working car still needs fuel (tool) oil (tool) air in tyres (tool) etc. I am just looking at charts as I enjoy it, but yes fundamentals are fantastically strong and the market is still very small relative to opportunity.

Bit_Happy

legendary

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A Great Time to Start Something!

Quote from: smoothie on June 05, 2014, 10:58:08 PM

UP we go

The Bitcoin fundamentals are so strong, this is not the best time to care "too much" about technical indicators, imo.
Technical indicators are an important tool, but how many tools do you need to use when your car is running perfectly?

Trade-Winds

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Activity: 63

Merit: 10

Quote from: mrbrt on June 05, 2014, 10:13:53 PM

Quote from: mrbrt on June 05, 2014, 09:58:10 PM

Quote from: Trade-Winds on June 05, 2014, 08:48:48 PM

I calculated the 1X1,163 as the move by looking at the pattern of the prior 2 moves 16X then 4X the 1X (the pattern being each move is divided by 4 approximately).

Why would it be divisible by 4 and not the square root? 16 to 4 to 2. 1X is simply = to an all time high.

I think the analysis of the patterns on your chart are fair.. there is a clear pattern, but the price prediction .. well.. definitely less of a pattern, or at least harder to extrapolate. There is a logarithmic chart predicting future prices floating around somewhere. I'll post if I find it.

Here are the log charts I was referring to above:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.6234630

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.6235001

Hey mrbert, nice extrapolating on those charts thanks Wink

In fact my /4 explanation is badly written version of what you are saying (square root) as my 1X was basically saying double from Breakout3. Thanks for making it clearer to all.

smoothie

legendary

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LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper

UP we go

mrbrt

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Quote from: mrbrt on June 05, 2014, 09:58:10 PM

Quote from: Trade-Winds on June 05, 2014, 08:48:48 PM

I calculated the 1X1,163 as the move by looking at the pattern of the prior 2 moves 16X then 4X the 1X (the pattern being each move is divided by 4 approximately).

Why would it be divisible by 4 and not the square root? 16 to 4 to 2. 1X is simply = to an all time high.

I think the analysis of the patterns on your chart are fair.. there is a clear pattern, but the price prediction .. well.. definitely less of a pattern, or at least harder to extrapolate. There is a logarithmic chart predicting future prices floating around somewhere. I'll post if I find it.

Here are the log charts I was referring to above:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.6234630

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.6235001

mrbrt

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Activity: 707

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Quote from: Trade-Winds on June 05, 2014, 08:48:48 PM

I calculated the 1X1,163 as the move by looking at the pattern of the prior 2 moves 16X then 4X the 1X (the pattern being each move is divided by 4 approximately).

Why would it be divisible by 4 and not the square root? 16 to 4 to 2. 1X is simply = to an all time high.

I think the analysis of the patterns on your chart are fair.. there is a clear pattern, but the price prediction .. well.. definitely less of a pattern, or at least harder to extrapolate. There is a logarithmic chart predicting future prices floating around somewhere. I'll post if I find it.

natewelt

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I can't tell whether the big boys are simply slowly getting rid of shares at this level or accumulating...

Any indications?

Trade-Winds

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I really like the message this longer term chart shows. Its almost like a map that is pointing the viewer towards what is going to happen next. The pattern and repetition is clear as is the ascending trend line support. So purely looking at the pattern of the rise shown and the size of each upward swing you can interpret the map to find where 'X' marks the spot 'could' be.

Once price broke above Breakout 1 it ended with a new all time high at Breakout 2 that rise = $16.41 to $259 = a 16X16.41 rise in approx 8 months (peak to peak)

Once price broke above Breakout 2 it ended with a new all time high at Breakout 3 that rise = $259 to $1,163 = 4X259 rise in approx 8 months (peak to peak)

So if the pattern replicates the same approximate conditions when price breaks above Breakout 3 it 'will rise to a new high at Breakout 4 = $1,163 to $2,326 = 1X1,163 in approx 8 months (peak to peak)

I calculated the 1X1,163 as the move by looking at the pattern of the prior 2 moves 16X then 4X the 1X (the pattern being each move is divided by 4 approximately).

Thus X marks the spot is a new high around $2,300 toward end July. I wouldn't bet the house, it's just my extrapolation of a pattern, caveat emptor.

Trade-Winds

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Yes Zimmah the $680 or so Top is definitely now in place (same point touched and failed from early March from when it then fell to the $340s). Looking at the short timeframe charts (by minutes) each time price gets up to that area it runs out of fuel pretty quick and falls back. Going back to my daily chart the flag pattern breakout was pretty much textbook (by the way great charting / pattern resource from Bulkowski's http://www.thepatternsite.com if you are interested). as now shown retrospectively at 1 on the chart.

The current price action is causing a bit of a messy top to become evident (2 on chart) with the $680 zone a bridge too far at the moment. However upward momentum from the last couple weeks remains nice and strong. So a bull/bear battle now at the higher end of the $600s. As long as it stays above the flag breakout ($600 zone) then bulls keep the upper hand, for the moment though i am leaning towards more sideways action keeping below the $680 or so top.

If and when it does break this current top I'd expect a quick $100 or so run to the high $700s in a matter of days. I would be buying the breakout for sure.

Will update again in a day or so.

zimmah

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Quote from: Trade-Winds on June 02, 2014, 07:45:07 AM

Quote from: Bit_Happy on May 30, 2014, 01:11:47 PM

Quote from: Trade-Winds on May 23, 2014, 02:59:52 AM

For a Rally Continuing:
Volume is up
Coming off a low volume basing period around $400
Trading above key averages

....

The first answer "UP" came true, but the question always comes again:
Now where do we go from slightly above $600?

Been away a few days, nice to see the price action. I'll get into where next over the next couple days. Don't like the look of the daily chart candle that spiked up to $685. In isolation it can be a big rejection signal for immediate pull back, I'll post details bit later.

It was just a spike of not even 10 minutes or so flash crashing the market, market selling like 600 bitcoin or so in an instant. I am not sure why they marketsold, as I'm pretty sure they could have easily gotten at least $20 per bitcoin more if they had slightly more patience.

Either way the next time we reach $680 we will likely either break it or drop back to a more modest $660 or so

Trade-Winds

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Quote from: Bit_Happy on May 30, 2014, 01:11:47 PM

Quote from: Trade-Winds on May 23, 2014, 02:59:52 AM

For a Rally Continuing:
Volume is up
Coming off a low volume basing period around $400
Trading above key averages

....

The first answer "UP" came true, but the question always comes again:
Now where do we go from slightly above $600?

Been away a few days, nice to see the price action. I'll get into where next over the next couple days. Don't like the look of the daily chart candle that spiked up to $685. In isolation it can be a big rejection signal for immediate pull back, I'll post details bit later.

ibankbitcoins

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@tradewind, sent you PM.

Gingermod

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Quote from: Bit_Happy on May 30, 2014, 01:11:47 PM

Quote from: Trade-Winds on May 23, 2014, 02:59:52 AM

For a Rally Continuing:
Volume is up
Coming off a low volume basing period around $400
Trading above key averages

....

The first answer "UP" came true, but the question always comes again:
Now where do we go from slightly above $600?

Upper

Bit_Happy

legendary

Activity: 2114

Merit: 1040

A Great Time to Start Something!

Quote from: Trade-Winds on May 23, 2014, 02:59:52 AM

For a Rally Continuing:
Volume is up
Coming off a low volume basing period around $400
Trading above key averages

....

The first answer "UP" came true, but the question always comes again:
Now where do we go from slightly above $600?

TalkTalk

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Activity: 38

Merit: 0

Quote from: Trade-Winds on May 28, 2014, 03:02:07 AM

Lets see if a continuation flag develops here. Looking for price range to lessen and consolidate but remain high in the recent trading pattern, volume low in the consolidation, but increases as price pulls back in the pattern leading to a breakout upwards out of the 'flag' shape above the $595 high. It will resolve either way (up or down) in a couple days.

Essentially if the pattern plays out what is happening is that those who missed out on the little rally are watching and waiting and then joining in as they see their chance to participate.

This flag pattern can also be used to calculate target move out of the pattern - Take the rally start (A) away from the rally top (B) divide it in half then add it to the lowest point in the flag pattern (currently C) = breakout prediction price D So 595-450 = 145 / 2 = 72.5 + 550 = 622.5.

Caveat emptor Grin

https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/54432554/BTC29May14.PNG

Where is Trade-Winds? Your flag analysis just happened. Thanks for the charts

Trade-Winds

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Activity: 63

Merit: 10

Lets see if a continuation flag develops here. Looking for price range to lessen and consolidate but remain high in the recent trading pattern, volume low in the consolidation, but increases as price pulls back in the pattern leading to a breakout upwards out of the 'flag' shape above the $595 high. It will resolve either way (up or down) in a couple days.

Essentially if the pattern plays out what is happening is that those who missed out on the little rally are watching and waiting and then joining in as they see their chance to participate.

This flag pattern can also be used to calculate target move out of the pattern - Take the rally start (A) away from the rally top (B) divide it in half then add it to the lowest point in the flag pattern (currently C) = breakout prediction price D So 595-450 = 145 / 2 = 72.5 + 550 = 622.5.

Caveat emptor Grin

bitsmichel

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Quote from: Trade-Winds on May 23, 2014, 02:59:52 AM

For a Rally Continuing:
Volume is up
Coming off a low volume basing period around $400
Trading above key averages

Against a Rally Continuing
Volume not up enough....yet
Price fell away from this level before in mid April (1 on chart)

So far its going up, I see that right in my wallet. May as well go to $1000 now

Raystonn

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Activity: 364

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You're using linear scale. To track similar increases based on percentage, please switch to a logarithmic chart.

Topic: Where Do We Go From Here - Technical Thoughts on BTC Price (Read 3324 times)