Where do you expect Bitcoin to "settle" once the market is mature? - page 2.

magneto

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Quote from: thecodebear on February 08, 2019, 05:30:56 PM

Eventually if bitcoin is adopted by the world its volatility will tick way down and it's market will mature. Look at gold it is fairly settled between in the 1200 - 1400 range for the past about 6 years now. Where do you think that point is for Bitcoin? Not saying it won't occasionally have big movements, but outside of some big economic event that causes a big price movement where do you think it will settle?

I'm thinking in the $300k/$400k range.

I don't think that it'll ever settle. Pricing is always relative.

If you look at gold now you may get the illusion of prices sticking to the $1.2-1.4k barrier when in fact a multitude of factors including demand for gold as a store of value in the future as well as the fact that fiat is constantly depreciating will mean prices will continue to fluctuate in the future. They won't stay at this value forever.

Likewise for bitcoin. I think that it will appreciate in the long run but it's hard to tell nominally how much it's going to go to, when demand has peaked, especially when you're measuring it in fiat. There are just too many variables. But I would say that at this stage, your prediction is still a wild guess.

sirohige

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Quote from: Bagaji on February 11, 2019, 05:09:08 PM

Quote from: thecodebear on February 08, 2019, 05:30:56 PM

Eventually if bitcoin is adopted by the world its volatility will tick way down and it's market will mature. Look at gold it is fairly settled between in the 1200 - 1400 range for the past about 6 years now. Where do you think that point is for Bitcoin? Not saying it won't occasionally have big movements, but outside of some big economic event that causes a big price movement where do you think it will settle?

I'm thinking in the $300k/$400k range.

At the moment I don't think can get exact range for Bitcoin since is existence cannot in any way be compared with that of gold. In my opinion, what you speculated is on the high side which I don't think Bitcoin will reach such value in decade to come. Be that at it may, bitcoin will will not settle below $3,000 if all things remain equal.

true bitcoin can never be compared to gold, because bitcoin and gold have different forms and some of the functions of gold and bitcoin are also very different, for bitcoin prices it is difficult to occur because bitcoin price movements depend on demand in the exchange.

basty03

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We can see bitcoin in range of 100k maybe in the future but time will tell its hard to say right now what will be the range price of bitcoin in the future that we can tell its mature enough. As of now we have opportunities to grab that bitcoin is on affordable price before that time.

thecodebear

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Quote from: Febo on February 11, 2019, 04:30:51 PM

Quote from: thecodebear on February 08, 2019, 05:30:56 PM

Where do you expect Bitcoin to "settle" once the market is mature?

Once Bitcoin price is matured then all national currencies will see huge depreciation. That is way I would never search price of Bitcoin in them but in gold. One Bitcoin will be 100 ounces of gold.

ah that's interesting I like that idea of pricing bitcoin against Gold rather than inflationary fiat.

Now that I'm thinking about it more even mature markers like Gold and the stock market move a lot. Though I guess the stock market grows as new companies come up, so gold is the best comparison. Gold's price has been pretty stationary for the past 5 or so years but I bet when the economy turns down again we'll see gold moving again. Since all these markets are speculative in nature they have big booms and busts, even the stock market will sometimes crash almost as much as bitcoin does, though the bull runs tend to be much longer but much slower and then bottoming out tends to be a bit shorter because everyone knows the stock market will come back up whereas most people seem to think Bitcoin is going to zero every crash so it takes a while to turn around.

Bagaji

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Quote from: thecodebear on February 08, 2019, 05:30:56 PM

Eventually if bitcoin is adopted by the world its volatility will tick way down and it's market will mature. Look at gold it is fairly settled between in the 1200 - 1400 range for the past about 6 years now. Where do you think that point is for Bitcoin? Not saying it won't occasionally have big movements, but outside of some big economic event that causes a big price movement where do you think it will settle?

I'm thinking in the $300k/$400k range.

At the moment I don't think can get exact range for Bitcoin since is existence cannot in any way be compared with that of gold. In my opinion, what you speculated is on the high side which I don't think Bitcoin will reach such value in decade to come. Be that at it may, bitcoin will will not settle below $3,000 if all things remain equal.

Febo

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Quote from: thecodebear on February 08, 2019, 05:30:56 PM

Where do you expect Bitcoin to "settle" once the market is mature?

Once Bitcoin price is matured then all national currencies will see huge depreciation. That is way I would never search price of Bitcoin in them but in gold. One Bitcoin will be 100 ounces of gold.

BitHodler

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Quote from: talkbitcoin on February 10, 2019, 05:05:22 AM

all we need is a bigger market so it can't be manipulated as easily and also a balance between supply and demand which we can reach when bitcoin adoption is at a high percentage.

Manipulation isn't that big of a deal as long as it happens within a range we won't be noticing while conducting our day to day transactions. Gold is just as easily being manipulated still, but the range within this happens is very tight.

Eventually you'll see brokers offer 300x leverage counts making sure that even the most insignificant looking fluctuation pays off big time. Manipulation gets smarter and less obvious the larger an asset's market becomes.

I'm sure that there is enough room for Bitcoin to break the $100k mark and to stay above it for years, hopefully decades. It all depends on how we're going to use it, and whether or it will be seen as a safe haven just like gold.

buwaytress

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That may be an eventuality, and it is one I believe in as well, but I doubt any of us will be alive to witness it. This true idea of maturity followed by lack of volatility would require a sincere move of trading from pure speculation to economic driven.

Which is hard for me to see happen until we see Bitcoin face and overcome a lot more... Quantum computing maybe. Fiat revivals. Economic and debt collapses that can't be recovered from...

talkbitcoin

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Quote from: davis196 on February 10, 2019, 02:06:30 AM

Quote from: thecodebear on February 08, 2019, 05:30:56 PM

Eventually if bitcoin is adopted by the world its volatility will tick way down and it's market will mature. Look at gold it is fairly settled between in the 1200 - 1400 range for the past about 6 years now. Where do you think that point is for Bitcoin? Not saying it won't occasionally have big movements, but outside of some big economic event that causes a big price movement where do you think it will settle?

I'm thinking in the $300k/$400k range.

What if the bitcoin market never becomes "mature".I think the btc price volatility will always remain high,because of the deflationary,"limited supply" nature of bitcoin.The BTC market will always move from price bubbles to price crashes in the long run.

that is inevitable because the growth can reach a final stage where it slows down significantly until becomes negligible. that stage is also known as mass adoption. the point is, all we need is a bigger market so it can't be manipulated as easily and also a balance between supply and demand which we can reach when bitcoin adoption is at a high percentage.

olumyd

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That's quite a simple question, same place as real-life gold. Since bitcoin is digital gold, I'd expect nothing less. It will become less volatile, widely accepted and more useful long term.

To put a price tag on that is clearly impossible. But if I were to speculate based on my opinion; given current gold prices in the market:

Gold Price per Ounce   $1,315.90
Gold Price per Gram   $42.31
Gold Price per Kilo   $42,307.17,

I'd say it depends on the metrics on how to correlate satoshi to the smallest unit measurement of gold - the gram. Just like how we do 10cm = 1 mm, 1000ml = 1ltr... And so on.

So maybe 100satoshi = 10gram of gold or something like that. This would still fluctuate just like all medium of exchanges.

Perhaps, it may be satoshi to the bytes if bitcoin will remain exclusive digital in the far distant future, if it survives.

And if all that doesn't happen... My clueless bet will be on $50,000

figmentofmyass

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Quote from: gentlemand on February 09, 2019, 04:18:33 PM

I don't think gold comparisons are very valid. For starters its supply is not predictable nor does not have a hard cap.

the rate at which supply is increasing is fairly predictable though, like bitcoin. i've also been reading that peak gold is expected to occur soon. a permanently depleting inflation rate would act similarly to a hard cap.

let's face it. there's never been a math-based commodity before or any such thing as a hard cap on supply. but markets are still markets and speculators will still speculate. i don't see why one scarce, speculative commodity would behave so differently from another scarce, speculative commodity.

davis196

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Quote from: thecodebear on February 08, 2019, 05:30:56 PM

Eventually if bitcoin is adopted by the world its volatility will tick way down and it's market will mature. Look at gold it is fairly settled between in the 1200 - 1400 range for the past about 6 years now. Where do you think that point is for Bitcoin? Not saying it won't occasionally have big movements, but outside of some big economic event that causes a big price movement where do you think it will settle?

I'm thinking in the $300k/$400k range.

What if the bitcoin market never becomes "mature".I think the btc price volatility will always remain high,because of the deflationary,"limited supply" nature of bitcoin.The BTC market will always move from price bubbles to price crashes in the long run.

pooya87

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Quote from: wuvdoll on February 09, 2019, 12:26:25 PM

Quote from: thecodebear on February 08, 2019, 05:30:56 PM

Eventually if bitcoin is adopted by the world its volatility will tick way down and it's market will mature. Look at gold it is fairly settled between in the 1200 - 1400 range for the past about 6 years now. Where do you think that point is for Bitcoin? Not saying it won't occasionally have big movements, but outside of some big economic event that causes a big price movement where do you think it will settle?

I'm thinking in the $300k/$400k range.

300 Thousand dollars per bitcoin is about 5.4 trillion dollars. All by itself. I just wanted to point that out because nasdaq itself is 7.4 trillion dollars. That means you think bitcoin could worth around the same as all nasdaq combines combined together. Like literally all of nasdaq comes together and all those companies and all those marketcaps all come together to worth 7.4 trillion dollars and you think its possible for bitcoin to reach there ? I am sorry but you must be dreaming.

More honest potential is 1 trillion at best and thats around 55-60 thousand dollars. I am fine with that type of pricing because it makes it more realistic than some imaginary skyrocketing that makes it sound like we are in a cartoon world or we are in some sort of game.

well all i can say to that is that some day (not even so long ago) if you told people that bitcoin is going to be worth $3000 they would have told you, "it is impossible, you are dreaming" but it went up to $20k! you see it is not about the size of that number, that value is just in your perspective that looks big or small. you should look at the bigger picture. not to mention that you are looking at the value of 1.00000000 BTC instead of looking at the value of smaller units. and comparing that with market capitalization! which doesn't even make sense because you are comparing apples and oranges.

hatshepsut93

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Settle is such a relative term, just because gold was at certain range for the last years, there's no guarantee that it will stay there. Same with Bitcoin, even if it will settle at some point, it will likely change later. There will probably be another bubble soon, and after that it will settle in another bottom, just like it happening now. My prediction is that the next bottom will be at $15,000. But does it count as mature? I don't think so, Bitcoin will take a decade or even more to truly mature.

gentlemand

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Quote from: Biodom on February 09, 2019, 05:00:51 PM

wrong numbers...Nasdaq 12-13 tril (not sure where 7.4 came from), NYSE 20-22 tril. All stock markets 70 tril. Bond market above 40 tril in US alone, above 100 tril worldwide.
Gold-another 7-8 tril.

And what proportion of the Earth's population can access an American stock or bond market?

Anyone anywhere can access Bitcoin as long as they have a way of connecting somehow.

There's not enough reflection on the permissionless part mainly because most of us writing here have that permission. Billions do not.

1Referee

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Quote from: Pursuer on February 09, 2019, 06:09:53 AM

lets not forget about the limited total supply of bitcoin. unlike any other currency, bitcoin has a cap. there will never be more than that fixed amount (21 million) coins and bitcoin being a global currency and the population of the world being a lot more than the small percentage that are already in, we can easily expect 6-7 figures with half a growth before even reaching mass adoption.

Bitcoin has indeed a limited total supply, but there is an infinite supply of paper (contract) Bitcoin. Gold's spot volumes are so low compared to the paper volumes, that it in some cases represent a ratio of 1/100. In other words, for every dollar that has been used to trade spot Gold, there has been $100 dollars used to trade paper Gold.

Bitcoin will be heading in that exact same direction eventually. CME is catching up fast, and they are frequently generating more volume than Coinbase Pro itself.

I'm happy if Bitcoin settles between $100,000-$200,000 where we can use the relative stability to actually use it as currency. In the end, we won't look at Bitcoin being worth $100,000 anymore, but at the smaller nominations being worth either $1-$10-$100-$1000, etc.

Biodom

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Quote from: wuvdoll on February 09, 2019, 12:26:25 PM

Quote from: thecodebear on February 08, 2019, 05:30:56 PM

Eventually if bitcoin is adopted by the world its volatility will tick way down and it's market will mature. Look at gold it is fairly settled between in the 1200 - 1400 range for the past about 6 years now. Where do you think that point is for Bitcoin? Not saying it won't occasionally have big movements, but outside of some big economic event that causes a big price movement where do you think it will settle?

I'm thinking in the $300k/$400k range.

300 Thousand dollars per bitcoin is about 5.4 trillion dollars. All by itself. I just wanted to point that out because nasdaq itself is 7.4 trillion dollars. That means you think bitcoin could worth around the same as all nasdaq combines combined together. Like literally all of nasdaq comes together and all those companies and all those marketcaps all come together to worth 7.4 trillion dollars and you think its possible for bitcoin to reach there ? I am sorry but you must be dreaming.

More honest potential is 1 trillion at best and thats around 55-60 thousand dollars. I am fine with that type of pricing because it makes it more realistic than some imaginary skyrocketing that makes it sound like we are in a cartoon world or we are in some sort of game.

wrong numbers...Nasdaq 12-13 tril (not sure where 7.4 came from), NYSE 20-22 tril. All stock markets 70 tril. Bond market above 40 tril in US alone, above 100 tril worldwide.
Gold-another 7-8 tril.

gentlemand

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I don't think gold comparisons are very valid. For starters its supply is not predictable nor does not have a hard cap. And pricing is set by paper gold and no doubt intensely controlled by a small number of groups.

A fully saturated Bitcoin will trade globally 24/7 and since it lives on the internet in a way gold never can it may reach much greater numbers of people too. I personally only know one person who owns any gold. No one else I've ever known has mentioned the desire to own any.

Perhaps naively I expected this bubble to be less volatile. It was certainly more sluggish but the percentages haven't been too far off previous ones. I guess we'll need a few more booms and busts before thinking about a steadier figure but I think it'll need to be many more years down the line yet.

figmentofmyass

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Quote from: wuvdoll on February 09, 2019, 12:26:25 PM

300 Thousand dollars per bitcoin is about 5.4 trillion dollars. All by itself. I just wanted to point that out because nasdaq itself is 7.4 trillion dollars. That means you think bitcoin could worth around the same as all nasdaq combines combined together. Like literally all of nasdaq comes together and all those companies and all those marketcaps all come together to worth 7.4 trillion dollars and you think its possible for bitcoin to reach there ? I am sorry but you must be dreaming.

why do you think the capitalization of nasdaq matters? what relationship are you trying to show?

if we're talking about high level aggregate money supplies like M3+ (and that is relevant if bitcoin ever becomes entrenched in the institutional markets), it doesn't seem like "dreaming" to me.

a few decades ago, gold only had capitalization of a trillion dollars. what if bitcoin becomes a legitimate store of value asset like gold in the eyes of mainstream investors and institutions? on a longer timeline, is $7 trillion ( gold's current market cap) really impossible?

wuvdoll

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Quote from: thecodebear on February 08, 2019, 05:30:56 PM

Eventually if bitcoin is adopted by the world its volatility will tick way down and it's market will mature. Look at gold it is fairly settled between in the 1200 - 1400 range for the past about 6 years now. Where do you think that point is for Bitcoin? Not saying it won't occasionally have big movements, but outside of some big economic event that causes a big price movement where do you think it will settle?

I'm thinking in the $300k/$400k range.

300 Thousand dollars per bitcoin is about 5.4 trillion dollars. All by itself. I just wanted to point that out because nasdaq itself is 7.4 trillion dollars. That means you think bitcoin could worth around the same as all nasdaq combines combined together. Like literally all of nasdaq comes together and all those companies and all those marketcaps all come together to worth 7.4 trillion dollars and you think its possible for bitcoin to reach there ? I am sorry but you must be dreaming.

More honest potential is 1 trillion at best and thats around 55-60 thousand dollars. I am fine with that type of pricing because it makes it more realistic than some imaginary skyrocketing that makes it sound like we are in a cartoon world or we are in some sort of game.

Topic: Where do you expect Bitcoin to "settle" once the market is mature? - page 2. (Read 652 times)