Topic: where does bitcoin stand today? (July 2014) - page 3. (Read 4972 times)

So at the end where do you think we are? , i think we are in a similar state to facebook around 2008-2009..

To put the question in the OP another way, we'll throw in that innovation curve that's been posted a million times before here:



Normally when these threads come up, people generally estimate we're somewhere between Innovators and Early Adopters, but so far everyone in this thread seems to think we're so early that we're barely on the curve. 

Maybe around a three with merchants coming online seemingly every day. Still a ways to go, but the pace will pick up exponentially. 

1 x 10^-7

Funny, if the 1-100 scale were logarithically interpreted, then I'd say 1.  Otherwise I think we're probably still less than 1.

you have a completely different interpretation of the scale than me and probably most of us.

The way i interpreted it is that he is asking how much % we are compared to where we would be if everyone accepted bitcoin.

Therefore, we are not even at 1% adoption, not even at 0.1% even.

We're very, very early adopters and there's plenty of room to grow, so we're not even close to 1 on a scale of 1-100.

also, neither of us is 'wrong' it's just you are counting time, and i am counting humans.

i'd also say we're about halfway in time, but definitely not halfway in humans.

Okay , let me work on this to emphasize my point,

There are a million people in city A.
On day 1 , Nakamoto tell 9 friends about it , making it 10 adopters. ( 9 total new people )
On day 2 , each friend tells 9 friends about it , making 100 adopters ( 90 total new people )
On day 3 , each friend tells 9 friends about it , making 1,000 adopters. ( 900 total new people )
.....
On day 6 , each friend tells 9 friends about it , making 1,000,000 adopters. (900,000 total new people)

Now , at day 3 , one friend decides to estimate their progress.
He sees that it has been three days since it started.
He says that 1000/1000,000 = 0.1% of people know about Bitcoin.
They estimate that it will take 3 * 100/0.1 = 3000 more days for the entire city to know about Bitcoin , when in reality , it will take only 3 more days.
However , in a realistic scenario , this will take a bit longer than 3 days , as by day 6 , a large proportion of the people each friend tells will have already heard of Bitcoin from someone else.

Getting back to my point , the growth and rate of new members entering into Bitcoin is increasing exponentially.
Price charts are shown in logarithmic scales , in order to make them readable.
My prediction is based on the exponential growth of Bitcoin and asserts that we are halfway there.
The prediction cannot be deemed accurate , because it is just a guess at best , but it is still more accurate than all the guesses of 1 so far.

BE CONFIDENT IN BITCOIN ! WE HAVE COVERED FAR MORE GROUND THAN THE "1" YOU SAY

I think complete adoption is possible , or atleast 90%+ , though it is unlikely.
Many Bitcoin users envision a scenario where Bitcoin is considered the global currency , like the Euro but for the entire world rather than just the EU.

This is rather unlikely , but not impossible.

I still don't understand how everyone is valuing it at 1 or below on the scale though -.-

I assume that even in a "full worldwide adoption scenario" (= maximum adoption ever reached) not the entire world population will use Bitcoin. But between 25-75% are possible.

So as a conservative estimate I will assume that 2 billion people will use bitcoin in the maximum adoption scenario. The current number of bitcoiners is hard to estimate. I would put that number in the 10 to 20 million range.

Based on these assumptions, we're currently at a value of 0.5-1 on your scale.

Adoption and usage is the important thing but what about people that heard about bitcoin? I'd say even 20 out 100 heard about it. But don't use it.

3 it leveled up a few times 

3 million estimated bitcoiners out of 7 billion people in the world
= 0.05/100

I see alot of people saying 1, but I wouldn't go that far.  Maybe three years ago it was a 1.

With a small number of the larger retailers getting on board, it's probably somewhere between 5 and 10 at least.  I'll say 8.  Warming up.

Firstly , your idea itself is wrong , because it gives you a value below 1.

I am considering it logarithmic because he has asked us for a status on progress as a whole.
If what you are saying is correct , then if we continue at the current speed , global acceptance will occur in around 1.16 million years.

If you consider my scale and assume that the same logarithmic speed continues , it will take 5 more years for Bitcoin to be globally accepted. (5 years so far , 5 more years to go)

My idea is not very accurate , because it assumes that we can keep up this logarithmic pace.
However , it is still more accurate than your scale when it comes to gauging Bitcoin.

300000/7000000000 = 0.00004285714

0.00004285714*100% = 0.004285714%

so 0.004285714 on his scale

why would you assume a 1-100 scale is logarithmic?

DISCLAIMER : THESE CALCULATIONS ARE KINDA RANDOM ( But still better than all the "1"s so far)

Lets base Bitcoin's adoption on the number of forum users.

There are 7 billion people on earth , so 1 on your scale is one adopter and 100 is 7 billion adopters.

If we use a logarithmic scale of base 10, we could say:-

7 billion = 10^9.845

Now , we can say that currently , there are around 300,000 users on this forums. Assuming that they are the only people using Bitcoin :-

300,000 = 10^5.477

That means we would rank 5.477/9.845 = 55 on your scale.


All this assumes that we use a logarithmic scale , which I find appropriate as it is the scale we usually use when we compare BTC price since the beginning (again , this assumes price is directly proportional to number of adopters)

Still at the beginning stage. I give 1

0.0431.64

0.07

1.

Still room to growth.