I think 20k is more likely. Bitcoin tends to reverse the direction when momentum is lost. It's still to early for the big bull run, halvening is 1 year away.
I agree that Bitcoin tends to reverse direction once momentum has been lost, hence price has increased dramatically since the bearish momentum was lost. I also agree that it's too early for a big bull run. I also see a bear market relief rally to $50K at best, prior to falling back down to $25K/$30K. This would then further confirm the long-term bear market with a lower high.
$35k will be oversold in the weekly chart and it will dip again slowly that it take months before it will hit the bottom at around $25k or probably just $26k. before going up again to $40k.
I also noticed price is getting
oversold overbought on Weekly chart, based on RSI. This makes $30K a relatively important "make or break" price. Either price breaks through this level into overbought like in 2019 at $6K, in order to be able to move considerably higher in a parabolic fashion, or we see the correction in order to cool off, that could well take a few months.
We can't just go on parabolic rise, sooner or later we will have a correction. So most likely we might go $20k'ish again before another leg up. That's how the market moves in the past.
Worth pointing out that in
the most recent past, the year after a 1 year long bear market, price did in fact go parabolic and retrace 62% of the downside move, despite most people's expectations that it wasn't possible. There were notable corrections during that parabolic move, but they were short lived, unlike the correction to $20K that definitely broke the previous parabolic momentum. Ultimately we've already see one parabolic move from around $17K to $23K, so it can't be that out of the question to see another, logically speaking.
3. Volume- green candles are not yet supported by the expected volume for bullishness which gives a tendency to consolidate and create another low first.
Well spotted. This current move to $30K certainly isn't supported by strong volume. In fact there has been decreasing volume since November last year, despite the near 2x in price. To me this suggests that this current move isn't the volatile high volume move that we are yet to see. The only questions remains is whether the return of high volume will be bullish or bearish, as high volume is rarely neutral.