2 monthly triangle is complete.
Topic: Where we break the downward trend and rebound from the current bottom? (Read 1962 times)
June 28, 2013, 03:05:15 PM
We're exactly at the junction last lows (support line from May 3) on MtGox.
2 monthly triangle is complete.
2 monthly triangle is complete.
June 28, 2013, 03:27:29 AM
So, of the 11.5 million current addresses, only about 600K have any coins. What conclusions can we draw from that, if any?
To the OP: will get back on topic soon
That most coins move after they are received. That's about it.
OK. Thanks.
June 28, 2013, 03:27:16 AM
I like your charts. A question, though: Why are you drawing your trend line (red) from the late April peak and not the early April peak?
April Peak (266) and low (49) were not in a linear trend line, so they are outside.
June 28, 2013, 03:23:35 AM
So, of the 11.5 million current addresses, only about 600K have any coins. What conclusions can we draw from that, if any?
To the OP: will get back on topic soon
That most coins move after they are received. That's about it.
June 28, 2013, 03:20:50 AM
I like your charts. A question, though: Why are you drawing your trend line (red) from the late April peak and not the early April peak?
I'm waiting for the $25-$35 range
If / when we get there I'll reconsider as it could still go much lower.
June 28, 2013, 03:17:59 AM
Get a bollinger on it, you will see it is trading in a direction with market support upwards, which would indicate the actual status quo.
Problem is that this sort of technical analysis is bollox because the market is unstable due to stupidity......
and no one knows where the next batch of gross stupidity is going to come from (Greece, MTGOX)....... US?
Personally my money is on MTgox... far too many dirty little secrets..
Problem is that this sort of technical analysis is bollox because the market is unstable due to stupidity......
and no one knows where the next batch of gross stupidity is going to come from (Greece, MTGOX)....... US?
Personally my money is on MTgox... far too many dirty little secrets..
June 28, 2013, 03:12:48 AM
I like your charts. A question, though: Why are you drawing your trend line (red) from the late April peak and not the early April peak?
June 28, 2013, 03:05:37 AM
I did see an interesting stat, however. Over 90% of wallet that are downloaded do not contain and have never contained any coins!
I have no idea how anybody could possibly know that and I like to think I understand bitcoin pretty well since I first read the whitepaper in 2010.
Substitute "addresses" for "wallets"...
http://bitcoinrichlist.com/charts/bitcoin-distribution-by-address
Of course! The default client never always sends change to a new address. Coins left on an address that has had its private key exposed will be the first lost if there is ever a problem found with ECDSA.
So, of the 11.5 million current addresses, only about 600K have any coins. What conclusions can we draw from that, if any?
To the OP: will get back on topic soon
June 28, 2013, 03:01:37 AM
I did see an interesting stat, however. Over 90% of wallet that are downloaded do not contain and have never contained any coins!
I have no idea how anybody could possibly know that and I like to think I understand bitcoin pretty well since I first read the whitepaper in 2010.
Substitute "addresses" for "wallets"...
http://bitcoinrichlist.com/charts/bitcoin-distribution-by-address
Of course! The default client never always sends change to a new address. Coins left on an address that has had its private key exposed will be the first lost if there is ever a problem found with ECDSA.
June 28, 2013, 02:58:54 AM
I did see an interesting stat, however. Over 90% of wallet that are downloaded do not contain and have never contained any coins!
I have no idea how anybody could possibly know that and I like to think I understand bitcoin pretty well since I first read the whitepaper in 2010.
Substitute "addresses" for "wallets"...
http://bitcoinrichlist.com/charts/bitcoin-distribution-by-address
June 28, 2013, 02:58:36 AM
i think its about 18-19$
June 28, 2013, 02:52:12 AM
I did see an interesting stat, however. Over 90% of wallet that are downloaded do not contain and have never contained any coins!
I have no idea how anybody could possibly know that and I like to think I understand bitcoin pretty well since I first read the whitepaper in 2010.
June 28, 2013, 02:43:24 AM
I would not be surprised if the price trended down to the 30s within the next 4 - 6 months...gradually.
The run up was not sustained but happened very quickly. That means there is not a lot of support in the mid-price range, certainly not at the current level. There are a lot of people that acquired bitcoins when they were far cheaper and are sitting on tens of thousands in windfalls. Some will sell to capture or lock in some of the profits. They will rationalize that they can pick up some more later when the price falls. Or they just want to cash out a part of their portfolio - take some profits.
Then there are those that purchase when the price was sky high - they will capitulate.
The caveat to all of this is NEWS. Positive, mainstream news, perhaps due to some event, can have a massive impact on the price given the small float.
The run up was not sustained but happened very quickly. That means there is not a lot of support in the mid-price range, certainly not at the current level. There are a lot of people that acquired bitcoins when they were far cheaper and are sitting on tens of thousands in windfalls. Some will sell to capture or lock in some of the profits. They will rationalize that they can pick up some more later when the price falls. Or they just want to cash out a part of their portfolio - take some profits.
Then there are those that purchase when the price was sky high - they will capitulate.
The caveat to all of this is NEWS. Positive, mainstream news, perhaps due to some event, can have a massive impact on the price given the small float.
Thank you for your opinion, but I do not think that the down trend will last 4-6 months.
There is a decreasing trend (red line) incredibly linear, and if it does not change, the price under $ 50 will have at the end of August, 30-40 at September.
But we are still above the minimum of 9 June, 4 May and of course the bottom of the 16th April.
Personally, I think the biggest chance to break out as the rebound from recent lows on $ 93 - 79.
If we get on, we descend about much too low.
You may be right, but if you adjust your red line to where the bulk of the volume was at the peak it stretches out further. The big question mark is NEWS and NEW BUYERS coming into the market.
I did see an interesting stat, however. Over 90% of wallet that are downloaded do not contain and have never contained any coins!
June 28, 2013, 02:18:13 AM
I would not be surprised if the price trended down to the 30s within the next 4 - 6 months...gradually.
The run up was not sustained but happened very quickly. That means there is not a lot of support in the mid-price range, certainly not at the current level. There are a lot of people that acquired bitcoins when they were far cheaper and are sitting on tens of thousands in windfalls. Some will sell to capture or lock in some of the profits. They will rationalize that they can pick up some more later when the price falls. Or they just want to cash out a part of their portfolio - take some profits.
Then there are those that purchase when the price was sky high - they will capitulate.
The caveat to all of this is NEWS. Positive, mainstream news, perhaps due to some event, can have a massive impact on the price given the small float.
The run up was not sustained but happened very quickly. That means there is not a lot of support in the mid-price range, certainly not at the current level. There are a lot of people that acquired bitcoins when they were far cheaper and are sitting on tens of thousands in windfalls. Some will sell to capture or lock in some of the profits. They will rationalize that they can pick up some more later when the price falls. Or they just want to cash out a part of their portfolio - take some profits.
Then there are those that purchase when the price was sky high - they will capitulate.
The caveat to all of this is NEWS. Positive, mainstream news, perhaps due to some event, can have a massive impact on the price given the small float.
Thank you for your opinion, but I do not think that the down trend will last 4-6 months.
There is a decreasing trend (red line) incredibly linear, and if it does not change, the price under $ 50 will have at the end of August, 30-40 at September.
But we are still above the minimum of 9 June, 4 May and of course the bottom of the 16th April.
Personally, I think the biggest chance to break out as the rebound from recent lows on $ 93 - 79.
If we get on, we descend about much too low.
edit: even Bitstamp is still above the lows of May and June. But as the next fall it will not be true.
But the most important thing is still ahead of us
June 28, 2013, 12:30:50 AM
100 is a key psychological price point...a sustained move under and into the mid-90s, Mt. Gox, and odds are we'll be moving lower.
June 28, 2013, 12:26:28 AM
I would not be surprised if the price trended down to the 30s within the next 4 - 6 months...gradually.
The run up was not sustained but happened very quickly. That means there is not a lot of support in the mid-price range, certainly not at the current level. There are a lot of people that acquired bitcoins when they were far cheaper and are sitting on tens of thousands in windfalls. Some will sell to capture or lock in some of the profits. They will rationalize that they can pick up some more later when the price falls. Or they just want to cash out a part of their portfolio - take some profits.
Then there are those that purchase when the price was sky high - they will capitulate.
The caveat to all of this is NEWS. Positive, mainstream news, perhaps due to some event, can have a massive impact on the price given the small float.
The run up was not sustained but happened very quickly. That means there is not a lot of support in the mid-price range, certainly not at the current level. There are a lot of people that acquired bitcoins when they were far cheaper and are sitting on tens of thousands in windfalls. Some will sell to capture or lock in some of the profits. They will rationalize that they can pick up some more later when the price falls. Or they just want to cash out a part of their portfolio - take some profits.
Then there are those that purchase when the price was sky high - they will capitulate.
The caveat to all of this is NEWS. Positive, mainstream news, perhaps due to some event, can have a massive impact on the price given the small float.
June 27, 2013, 04:39:58 PM
It would be great if the market is driven by our (bullish) vote 
June 27, 2013, 04:12:18 PM
I would think plummeting to low 90's.... Until the current issues with Bitcoin Foundation and mt Gox are corrected/bypassed/etc.
TC
TC
June 27, 2013, 01:36:09 PM
101
I will be the prize, as the one who most closely guesses?
I will be the prize, as the one who most closely guesses?
June 27, 2013, 01:17:37 PM
In a few years, it probably isn't going to matter if you picked up more at $60 or $65, but will make a difference if you are patient and play your cards right on the way down...
IAS
10% is 10% now and in the future. Let Bitcoins value rise 1000 fold and you still lack those 10% you didnt catch at the beginning.
Of course if you have so much money and can save 10% it will make a difference (in a literal sense). What I am saying is it is really really hard to first call a bottom, wait for the fall to happen and then
it meet your bottom. Everybody has been saying $50 for the longest time. If you buy in to $50 along with a lot of other people, it will probably bounce off that level if your order
isn't already in the books. And even then, depending on news and such, you might pull the trigger too soon. But yes, I'd love to have the extra 10%.
If BTC's value rises 1000% (and I think it eventually does), a few more BTC's won't matter. You are sounding like a professional athlete who takes one teams 25 million dollar offer over
the 24 million dollar offer (though they have the better team and it's his hometown). So, the team ends up losing for years, never makes the playoffs but you got that one extra house ;-) (OK, I forgot we are in the speculation forum)...
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