Topic: Which profession has the best chance of predicting Bitcoin prices? - page 2. (Read 2879 times)
July 20, 2014, 09:39:37 PM
Hacker
July 20, 2014, 07:53:48 PM
Philosopher King
July 20, 2014, 03:34:14 PM
Astronauts
Locomotive drivers
Bull riders
Bear hunters
Locomotive drivers
Bull riders
Bear hunters
July 20, 2014, 03:18:44 PM
tbh, its more like week or month trading at this point.
July 20, 2014, 03:00:16 PM
I guess you are daytrading or something, right?
July 20, 2014, 02:57:27 PM
probably shouldnt say "exactly" 
but to the point, in studying how the brain encodes, stores and decodes information during behavior, i am used to dealing with continuous and dynamic data sets, and finding the patterns in the noise (calculus/statistics/network modeling). it felt natural to apply similar strategies to bitcoin when i started trading a few years ago.
but to the point, in studying how the brain encodes, stores and decodes information during behavior, i am used to dealing with continuous and dynamic data sets, and finding the patterns in the noise (calculus/statistics/network modeling). it felt natural to apply similar strategies to bitcoin when i started trading a few years ago.
July 20, 2014, 02:41:24 PM
i do ok, and im a systems neuroscientist
What exactly do you do???
July 20, 2014, 02:39:24 PM
i do ok, and im a systems neuroscientist
July 20, 2014, 02:34:52 PM
Everyone can predict that the only long term direction for bitcoin is up!!!
July 20, 2014, 01:50:38 PM
NSA agent with access to the bank balances of all the major exchanges.
July 20, 2014, 01:50:21 PM
Someone in finance has the best chances of being able to predict the price of bitcoin over time as they have experience in analyzing financial markets
July 20, 2014, 01:39:45 PM
I'd say dice-makers. Do they have some special name? But seriously. The only thing you can to is to decide on whether you believe bitcoin will succeed (at least until a certain point in time) and then draw a logarithmic curve to that point. That really seems to be the best you can do... It sounds simple, but even Risto's predictions are effectively based on that method!
July 20, 2014, 10:56:10 AM
Exchange insider, whatever the profession. Has access to the most relevant information.
July 20, 2014, 10:13:39 AM
Depends on the time frame of your prediction. For short to mid term predictions I take classical TA cut down to it's mathematical bones any day over the alternatives. For longer term predictions, forecasting techniques with a bit of fundamental analysis thrown in, probably. So, quants, I suppose, but possibly creative use of methods from other fields as well because the complete picture of our market history seems rather unprecedented to me, so any profession using statistical modeling and/or machine learning seems like a good bet.
July 20, 2014, 10:09:30 AM
A computer engineer that can make Bitcoin so easy to secure, any Grandmother could do it as easily as using a checkbook.
July 20, 2014, 10:06:21 AM
I would say a computer programmer who has studied graph theory and graphs of social networks. Here is my reasoning:
As a computer programmer, they have some insight into the security and strength of the actual bitcoin protocol. The most important aspect, however, is the knowledge of graph theory and graphs of social networks (which mathematicians may have as well). The spreading popularity of bitcoin among consumers and businesses is very similar to the spreading popularity of any other product. If you study the manner in which, for example, Hush Puppies shoes became wildly popular very quickly in the mid 1990s, this will give you insight into the manner in which bitcoin adoption will spread (and the price of bitcoin in the long-term is mostly contingent on its popularity and use as a currency).
As a computer programmer, they have some insight into the security and strength of the actual bitcoin protocol. The most important aspect, however, is the knowledge of graph theory and graphs of social networks (which mathematicians may have as well). The spreading popularity of bitcoin among consumers and businesses is very similar to the spreading popularity of any other product. If you study the manner in which, for example, Hush Puppies shoes became wildly popular very quickly in the mid 1990s, this will give you insight into the manner in which bitcoin adoption will spread (and the price of bitcoin in the long-term is mostly contingent on its popularity and use as a currency).
July 20, 2014, 09:44:44 AM
Math is necessary, but not sufficient. The same goes for psychology, computer skills, or marketing savvy.
Hari Seldon, Psychohistorian. Everyone else is at a huge disadvantage.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychohistory_%28fictional%29
That goes double for economists.
Hari Seldon, Psychohistorian. Everyone else is at a huge disadvantage.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychohistory_%28fictional%29
That goes double for economists.
What is your reasoning for the assessment above?
Astrologer.
I am thinking the same, Astrologer has the same chance as anyone else predicting bitcoin price.
July 20, 2014, 09:33:53 AM
Math is necessary, but not sufficient. The same goes for psychology, computer skills, or marketing savvy.
Hari Seldon, Psychohistorian. Everyone else is at a huge disadvantage.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychohistory_%28fictional%29
That goes double for economists.
Hari Seldon, Psychohistorian. Everyone else is at a huge disadvantage.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychohistory_%28fictional%29
That goes double for economists.
July 20, 2014, 09:30:39 AM
Astrologer.
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