Which psychological stage of the crypto market are we in? - page 2.

shinratensei_

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Quote from: Sophokles on February 23, 2024, 10:47:20 PM

We are at the very end of the accumulation zone. There is still a chance that the market will flash crash to wipe out future traders but there won't be any long downward moments like we had a few months ago. If you are still holding on to your funds to take entry you should start doing that right now. The market can be extremely manipulative before the big move but one thing is certain for sure post halving and that is a massive rally towards an all time high.

really hoping it will happen, i've been accumulating all my salary this months around to buy some coins that I think will be promising in the future, wonder what gonna be the trigger for when the actual pump gonna actually come, in the previous bullrun it was tesla and various company following its path, maybe its because a sudden pump this time around followed by approval of ethereum's ETF which means altcoin season for most of us.
regardless accumulating is the best way, DCA ing for those that are late doesn't hurt either, remember that all time high for bitcoin is $100k. we are still only half way to go until we reached the all time high.
most of the newer coins that are listed in the exchange despite unperformant or already performant enough might be hitting its all time high this bullrun.
be prepared for something big and definitely try to accumulate.

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Quote from: Sophokles on February 23, 2024, 10:47:20 PM

We are at the very end of the accumulation zone. There is still a chance that the market will flash crash to wipe out future traders but there won't be any long downward moments like we had a few months ago. If you are still holding on to your funds to take entry you should start doing that right now. The market can be extremely manipulative before the big move but one thing is certain for sure post halving and that is a massive rally towards an all time high.

You have correctly pointed out that market is side ways and in accumulation phase. Many prominent analysts also share the same view that the market might go through a short lived correction phase before embarking on a significant bullish trend. Personally, I don't bother much about short term market fluctuations and continue holding on my long term position in Bitcoin and Ethereum with firm belief that long term outlook of the market is very positive and Bitcoin might reach its new all time high (ATH) within next few months.

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We are at the very end of the accumulation zone. There is still a chance that the market will flash crash to wipe out future traders but there won't be any long downward moments like we had a few months ago. If you are still holding on to your funds to take entry you should start doing that right now. The market can be extremely manipulative before the big move but one thing is certain for sure post halving and that is a massive rally towards an all time high.

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Quote from: DeathAngel on February 15, 2024, 02:50:34 PM

We’re all familiar with the well known, Wall Street Cheat Sheet. I would suggest the sentiment is somewhere between Optimism & Belief

I personally think we are still in optimism, after all we are just like starting, new projects starting building the next big things, the rally aren't that significant if you see from the time frame as well as comparing to the all time high. I think we still have long way to go until we reached the peak, but thats just my 2 cents, i could be wrong in this regard, after all the only coin that have meaningful increase projected from all time high is just solana that is with its 10x increase from its initial capital.
but I guess all of this is just speculation, we will see whether bitcoin gonna have rally that could at least bring it up near to the all time high then we will know whats going on, these pumps are so obscure anyway.
even we are still have no idea about whether bitcoin could even surpass all time high.

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The chart and the classification won't be an exact match for crypto as crypto is still in the phase of adaption. It hasn't reached to all potential investors yet.
The chart actually describes large index or stock markets that goes through bulls and bears. The bulls and bears on crypto are still not the same though moving towards it.
If we are to compare todays traders and investors mentality with bitcoin at 51K, the phase is accumulation. Everyone is convinced that bitcoin is going to break it's previous ATH and that's still around x2 of current price.
So, we are at Optimism where people buy and expect for a rise, Hope could have been when the price was around 30K, up from low 18K.

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Quote from: electronicash on February 15, 2024, 01:42:24 PM

why does it always mean a downtrend when they say The Correction Stage? can't it mean that the market is correcting the real value of BTC which is $100K?

but i think yes we are already in a bull market stage without halving yet.
i think in the halving day, the price will also shoot way higher and i often heard to term supercycle back in 2021, i think we are in it already. a bull market without halving is a supercycle. Grin

I think the halving is necessary to maintain the cyclical nature of the market, helping the operation and growth process take place in a more sustainable way. I think we are still just in the recovery phase, the uptrend will come after the halving and possibly after BTC creates a new ATH this year.

Many people have also talked about the 100K USD super cycle in 2021, but in the end we still see the cycle repeating.

Quote from: DeathAngel on February 15, 2024, 02:50:34 PM

We’re all familiar with the well known, Wall Street Cheat Sheet. I would suggest the sentiment is somewhere between Optimism & Belief.

Thank you very much for the image, I have attached the image link but temporarily cannot display the photo in the topic content.

You have a more optimistic view of the market than me, it is very possible that we have truly passed Optimism and are ready to wait for strong market growth.

Quote from: GreatArkansas on February 15, 2024, 05:36:33 PM

For me, we are in the middle of these.
What I am only positive about is we are already done in the accumulation period, we are now going in markup where we will start to attract more investors, retails, and institutional investors because once we experience this, for sure we will experience more high rally upward.

Yes, when BTC surpassed 25K USD, we exited the accumulation zone to enter recovery and are ready for growth. Halving is coming very close, I think we will have 6-8 months of re-accumulation after halving for BTC to break 69K USD and conquer new higher price ranges.

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Quote from: Vincom on February 15, 2024, 12:02:20 PM

(......)

Accumulation: Prices slowly rise with low investor participation.
Markup: Rallying prices attract more investors, accelerating the upward trend.

(......)

For me, we are in the middle of these.
What I am only positive about is we are already done in the accumulation period, we are now going in markup where we will start to attract more investors, retails, and institutional investors because once we experience this, for sure we will experience more high rally upward.

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Quote from: cryptoaddictchie on February 15, 2024, 04:19:57 PM

Quote from: electronicash on February 15, 2024, 01:42:24 PM

but i think yes we are already in a bull market stage without halving yet.
i think in the halving day, the price will also shoot way higher and i often heard to term supercycle back in 2021, i think we are in it already. a bull market without halving is a supercycle. Grin

I think this is just a mini bull. If we followed the sequence of the last bull run seasons. We knew that the real bull run started after the halving. So if we are at this level without that then we could expect a higher price for bitcoin after halving and in the real mega bull season. But if that means theres a change on the historical pattern made then theres a new narrative that will trigger a bull effect and Im will be thrill to know if this is not start with bitcoin itself.

Should this thread be on bitcoin discussion instead?

If the current trend continues then we may migrate from the so called muni bull run into full blown bull market and this is the best time to speculate market prices and using Bitcoin as a base case in the discussion even though, other coins are also following closely with they wide rang of market coverage.

I have seen some coins doing 5x price already and that is a good sign of what we should expect in the fituryand how we best react to them in the long run.

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Quote from: electronicash on February 15, 2024, 01:42:24 PM

but i think yes we are already in a bull market stage without halving yet.
i think in the halving day, the price will also shoot way higher and i often heard to term supercycle back in 2021, i think we are in it already. a bull market without halving is a supercycle. Grin

I think this is just a mini bull. If we followed the sequence of the last bull run seasons. We knew that the real bull run started after the halving. So if we are at this level without that then we could expect a higher price for bitcoin after halving and in the real mega bull season. But if that means theres a change on the historical pattern made then theres a new narrative that will trigger a bull effect and Im will be thrill to know if this is not start with bitcoin itself.

Should this thread be on bitcoin discussion instead?

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Quote from: DeathAngel on February 15, 2024, 02:50:34 PM

We’re all familiar with the well known, Wall Street Cheat Sheet. I would suggest the sentiment is somewhere between Optimism & Belief.

Definitely right as the market started to pumps again and the thrill is about to begin especially once the halving is done.
Many are rushing into the market now, you can see good news all over the social media platform regarding big institutions investing with Bitcoin and even some government releasing their positive statements towards Bitcoin adoption so yeah, we are in the stage of Optimism and Belief and if the good news continues, we might see another peak.

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We’re all familiar with the well known, Wall Street Cheat Sheet. I would suggest the sentiment is somewhere between Optimism & Belief.

electronicash

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why does it always mean a downtrend when they say The Correction Stage? can't it mean that the market is correcting the real value of BTC which is $100K?

but i think yes we are already in a bull market stage without halving yet.
i think in the halving day, the price will also shoot way higher and i often heard to term supercycle back in 2021, i think we are in it already. a bull market without halving is a supercycle. Grin

Wiwo

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Before now I see altcoins and Bitcoin being at a recovery stage, but when the price of Bitcoin reached 50k+ and other coins like ethereuem followed suit it became a baseline for the bull market, so for that, bitcoin and other coins are already at the bull position even though we have not achieved the previous all-time high level at this stage.

For that, we can say that, bitcoin as a coin is in a bull position and heading to the next all-time market price that will be a reasonable milestone and we may see that before the next Bitcoin halving cycle.

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Many familiar with the "market sentiment chart" (describing the psychological stages of a market cycle) recognize its influence on price action. We have Disbelief, Hope, Optimism, Belief, Thrill, Euphoria, Complacency, Anxiety, Denial, Panic, Capitulation, Anger and back to Disbelief, but in short, the traditional market cycle typically outlines four phases:

Accumulation: Prices slowly rise with low investor participation.
Markup: Rallying prices attract more investors, accelerating the upward trend.
Distribution: As the market peaks, profit-taking begins, slowing the rise.
Markdown: Selling intensifies, leading to sharp price declines^[1].

While human behaviors may evolve slowly over millennia, I believe that their emotions driving investment decisions remain relatively constant. These choices fuel buying/selling patterns, shaping market fluctuations, then market fluctuations affect investor psychology, creating a feedback loop. Combined with capital flows and asset price movements, this loop generates the cyclical nature of financial markets.

Despite Bitcoin reaching 52.5k USD and the crypto market exceeding 2T USD, my subjective view positions it within the "Disbelief" stage, rather than "Hope". Diverse opinions exist, some anticipate an uptrend, while others await a drop to 20k USD for bargain buying. Perhaps a robust upward spike is needed for widespread optimism and hope to prevail.

However, that is just my subjective opinion, I would like to get your opinion:

In your opinion, which stage best describes the current crypto market sentiment? What reasoning underlies your perspective?
Do you believe market makers leverage sentiment charts to manipulate the crypto market? Why or why not?

References:
[1] Mastering the Market Cycle – Mindset and Strategies

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