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Topic: Who is the dumper on mtgox ? - page 4. (Read 6244 times)

legendary
Activity: 1162
Merit: 1007
February 16, 2014, 05:07:13 AM
#28

This is a nice theory, but it only works if the whale can buy more cheap coins than he sells into walls that are not his own.  I question whether it is likely that the whale would come out ahead; however, it may explain what we are seeing.


The large majority of the people who speculate are net losers (that's why we have the HODL mantra, since it work so much better for the avg joe than trading).
The more of these cycles of boom and bust on mtGox (since feb 13. - $550 to $300 to $500 to 310 to $540 to $270 to ...) to more money flows from these people to the professional sharks. These people do this for a living. They are very smart and know just the right buttons to push to make the weak tremble and spill because they have been doing it for a long time. And they most probably are colluding aswell.

I do see your point, and I'm not saying it's impossible; in fact, it would explain a lot.  But it's just that anyone with fiat at Gox can purchase these cheap coins right now--which means that some of the alleged whale-manipulator's coins are being scooped for a great price by normal traders.  I just find it hard to believe that more people would panic and sell coins for too cheaply, than those that would use this as an opportunity to scoop up cheap coins.  

Anyone about to panic at Gox can check the price at BitStamp
newbie
Activity: 26
Merit: 0
February 16, 2014, 05:02:50 AM
#27

This is a nice theory, but it only works if the whale can buy more cheap coins than he sells into walls that are not his own.  I question whether it is likely that the whale would come out ahead; however, it may explain what we are seeing.


The large majority of the people who speculate are net losers (that's why we have the HODL mantra, since it work so much better for the avg joe than trading).
The more of these cycles of boom and bust on mtGox (since feb 13. - $550 to $300 to $500 to 310 to $540 to $270 to ...) to more money flows from these people to the professional sharks. These people do this for a living. They are very smart and know just the right buttons to push to make the weak tremble and spill because they have been doing it for a long time. And they most probably are colluding aswell.
member
Activity: 62
Merit: 10
February 16, 2014, 04:59:20 AM
#26
I think it's robot wars. There was a huge buy at 1:59am, it spiked the price up to 540, i think that triggered some mad robot, or possibly several to sell all their coins.

Must be somebody not in control of a badly written robot doing automatic trades.

I think everybody has already bought all the cheap gox btc so there are not many new buyers to stop it, plus maybe not much new money entering at the weekend.
legendary
Activity: 1162
Merit: 1007
February 16, 2014, 04:44:23 AM
#25
newbie
Activity: 26
Merit: 0
February 16, 2014, 04:35:22 AM
#24
Everyone who had fiat on Gox and was tempted to buy bitcoins has already bought them. I believe there are very few people left who have fiat on Gox that they sold quite higher and are hoping for it to still go lower to buy in.
What the whale is doing is giving the appearance that the coins really are this cheap on Gox while in reality they are actually not because there is almost noone left to buy them. There are however HODLERS and gullible speculators who are panicing and are induced into selling their coins thinking the price will go even lower. The lower the price goes the bigger the chance that these people will finally sell their coins.

What is actually going on as mentioned many times before is that the whale is selling coins to his own walls and hoping weak hands will panic and sell theirs aswell. He has done it a few times already in the last few days. It started with selling pressure of 20-50 btc batches being sold every 7-10min. This went on for ~24-36h nonstop and then he increased it to 100-300 btc bathes sold every 3-4min because at one point there were people who had fiat on Gox who wanted to buy cheap bitcoins and were creating buying pressure. So the whale compensated and made the situation look even more bleak.

I thought 300 would be the bottom since Gox is probably close to fixing the withdrawals and the whale probably milked people enough these last few days but actually what we are seeing is that the whale is interested in making money and has zero morals to go with it. He is going to milk this community till the very last moment before withdrawals to get as much as possible regardless of the damage to other people or to bitcoin.

If the whale can squeeze in another cycle of this constant selling pressure followed by his walls trying to push the price up again then he will do it. It will probably not happen since a) MtGox will probably fix the withdrawal situation on monday and b) when the banks start working on monday there will be new fiat flying in to buy those cheap coins.

hero member
Activity: 616
Merit: 500
February 16, 2014, 04:00:33 AM
#23
If this is what it takes to get solvent again, then I'm for it. I'm not playing with fire and selling because I know that when I do, Gox will announce that they are trading again
donator
Activity: 2772
Merit: 1019
February 16, 2014, 03:33:17 AM
#22
MtGox should have stopped the trading after seeing this unnatural market movement,
and then resume trading only after withdrawals would resume.
+1

mtgox should've stopped the whole company.

what a farce.
hero member
Activity: 952
Merit: 502
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February 16, 2014, 03:32:10 AM
#21
MtGox should have stopped the trading after seeing this unnatural market movement,
and then resume trading only after withdrawals would resume.
+1
legendary
Activity: 2170
Merit: 1094
February 16, 2014, 03:28:50 AM
#20
I voted manipulator. Before the dumps there was a spike from 380$ to 540$, probably
the manipulator bought his own coins, and then sold them to create downward momentum.
MtGox should have stopped the trading after seeing this unnatural market movement,
and then resume trading only after withdrawals would resume.
sr. member
Activity: 378
Merit: 250
February 16, 2014, 03:01:29 AM
#19
Who th F@#$ is Satoshi Sakamato? Evil half-twin of Satoshi Nakamato?  Tongue

I think someone made a whoops in his market order. Put in $80 instead of $800 Cheesy

It's amazingly easy to do if you aren't paying attention.


Or filling the 'sell' form instead of the 'buy'  Cheesy

I had a boo-boo on cryptsy once. You click on a value and it auto-populates. Then you click the sell when you wanted buy.
When the order fills directly you think YEAHHH!!! and then you realize FFFFUUUUUU!!!! Cheesy

I know that  Lips sealed

legendary
Activity: 1540
Merit: 1000
February 16, 2014, 02:53:56 AM
#18
Who th F@#$ is Satoshi Sakamato? Evil half-twin of Satoshi Nakamato?  Tongue

I think someone made a whoops in his market order. Put in $80 instead of $800 Cheesy

It's amazingly easy to do if you aren't paying attention.


Or filling the 'sell' form instead of the 'buy'  Cheesy

I clicked on a sell order once and lost a good portion of 0.1BTC because it didn't ask me to confirm so I didn't notice what I was doing Sad stay away from those fill orders unless you know what you're doing.
legendary
Activity: 1652
Merit: 1265
February 16, 2014, 02:52:26 AM
#17
Who th F@#$ is Satoshi Sakamato? Evil half-twin of Satoshi Nakamato?  Tongue

I think someone made a whoops in his market order. Put in $80 instead of $800 Cheesy

It's amazingly easy to do if you aren't paying attention.


Or filling the 'sell' form instead of the 'buy'  Cheesy

I had a boo-boo on cryptsy once. You click on a value and it auto-populates. Then you click the sell when you wanted buy.
When the order fills directly you think YEAHHH!!! and then you realize FFFFUUUUUU!!!! Cheesy
sr. member
Activity: 378
Merit: 250
February 16, 2014, 02:52:22 AM
#16
My guess is that people with BTC on Mt. Gox now believe that they are more likely to be able to withdraw dollars than BTC. I think that the belief is that some amount of BTC is missing and the dollars can be audited and recovered if Mt. Gox closes, and the BTC can't. I don't know if any of that is true. It is just an educated guess.

In case gox is insolvent it's probably easier to claim cents on the dollar for a USD balance than a BTC balance.



You make a point
sr. member
Activity: 378
Merit: 250
February 16, 2014, 02:49:21 AM
#15
Who th F@#$ is Satoshi Sakamato? Evil half-twin of Satoshi Nakamato?  Tongue

I think someone made a whoops in his market order. Put in $80 instead of $800 Cheesy

It's amazingly easy to do if you aren't paying attention.


Or filling the 'sell' form instead of the 'buy'  Cheesy
donator
Activity: 2772
Merit: 1019
February 16, 2014, 02:48:46 AM
#14
My guess is that people with BTC on Mt. Gox now believe that they are more likely to be able to withdraw dollars than BTC. I think that the belief is that some amount of BTC is missing and the dollars can be audited and recovered if Mt. Gox closes, and the BTC can't. I don't know if any of that is true. It is just an educated guess.

In case gox is insolvent it's probably easier to claim cents on the dollar for a USD balance than a BTC balance.
sr. member
Activity: 378
Merit: 250
February 16, 2014, 02:47:07 AM
#13
This is just crazy. I'm sure something is not right on Gox. Not all traders there could be that stupid !

What would you do if you had 200 BTC stuck on GOX?


Just wait ?
sr. member
Activity: 378
Merit: 250
February 16, 2014, 02:46:19 AM
#12
Who th F@#$ is Satoshi Sakamato? Evil half-twin of Satoshi Nakamato?  Tongue

I think someone made a whoops in his market order. Put in $80 instead of $800 Cheesy


woops !  Grin
legendary
Activity: 1652
Merit: 1265
February 16, 2014, 02:45:25 AM
#11
This is just crazy. I'm sure something is not right on Gox. Not all traders there could be that stupid !

What would you do if you had 200 BTC stuck on GOX?
legendary
Activity: 1540
Merit: 1000
February 16, 2014, 02:44:11 AM
#10
Who th F@#$ is Satoshi Sakamato? Evil half-twin of Satoshi Nakamato?  Tongue

I think someone made a whoops in his market order. Put in $80 instead of $800 Cheesy

It's amazingly easy to do if you aren't paying attention.
sr. member
Activity: 644
Merit: 250
February 16, 2014, 02:42:56 AM
#9
This is just crazy. I'm sure something is not right on Gox. Not all traders there could be that stupid !
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