What you wrote doesn't make much sense. Difficulty determinate the lowest exchenge value of bitcoins. Mining not worth => no transactions possible. I also miss how, in your scenario, more ppl will start mining when it will already be unprofittable.
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It's more likely the other way around, the exchange value of bitcoins determines the highest difficulty possible. That would be the point where mining stops being profitable, thus noone would buy new hardware, stopping the difficulty increases.
There are people holding large quantities of bitcoin, either bought at low prices or mined at low difficulties. These people might sell at a price where mining is unprofitable, if they fear a crash for example. Or if they just need the money.
Topic: who thinks value will drop back down to single digits? (Read 4166 times)
At the current difficulty will be very hard to see bitcoins under $10, with the next jump it will be impossible.
1. Difficulty doesn't determine price.
2. If the network continues growing (and it will since there is still profit to be had) mining revenue will soon approach electricity cost. Everyone will want to dump their hardware and bitcoins to get out of this unprofitable business which will drive the cost lower. Not a prediction, just a counter-scenario to what you describe is "impossible". This could be theoretically countered by an influx of new money seeking to buy bitcoins, but I'm not sure what would cause that since most of the attention Bitcoin has been getting has been negative.
What you wrote doesn't make much sense. Difficulty determinate the lowest exchenge value of bitcoins. Mining not worth => no transactions possible. I also miss how, in your scenario, more ppl will start mining when it will already be unprofittable.
With "impossible" i meant "very unluckily unless ppl are dumb as a rock".
I think the harder mining gets, the higher the value of BitCoins is going to rise.. I don't think it'll go back down to single digits unless theres something can threaten the bitcoin economy.
There is no bitcoin economy. Only speculation that there might be one later on.
As mining stops growing in the next 2-3 months, the influx of miners will slow. Miners are a huge part of the new money and attention coming into bitcoin, and that's a big part of what has caused price rises. Thus the price jumps could potentially stabilize. At that point the growth will go back to being very slow as bitcoin tries to establish a role for itself in the world. If it stops growing it will devalue because it's not big enough as an economy to sustain itself. There are plenty of bitcoins in existence right now. More than anyone could need. You can't sell them all for the current market price, no one would want that many because you can't really do much with them.
I could be totally wrong though. Just laying out some possibilities.
At the current difficulty will be very hard to see bitcoins under $10, with the next jump it will be impossible.
1. Difficulty doesn't determine price.
2. If the network continues growing (and it will since there is still profit to be had) mining revenue will soon approach electricity cost. Everyone will want to dump their hardware and bitcoins to get out of this unprofitable business which will drive the cost lower. Not a prediction, just a counter-scenario to what you describe is "impossible". This could be theoretically countered by an influx of new money seeking to buy bitcoins, but I'm not sure what would cause that since most of the attention Bitcoin has been getting has been negative.
Really? Like you guys weren't here last month? It was 8USD flat when I first started and that was last week of May.
Oh we were. The key difference now is that it takes almost 4 times more electricity and 4 times more time to generate a bitcoin. If the price now reaches parity with late May, would you say everything is fine or that there is a problem?
This all makes me think about returning all the hardware back to store - here in Russia we have 2 weeks grace period where we can return stuff to the store even if there is no issues with it..
Jeez, the idea of making thousands of dollars by just setting up a computer with a few video cards has even made it to as far as russia.
As if it matters where you are in these Internet matters.
I think the harder mining gets, the higher the value of BitCoins is going to rise.. I don't think it'll go back down to single digits unless theres something can threaten the bitcoin economy.
I expect it to bottom out at around 10 before the price goes bananas again. Dunno if it'll get down to the single digits, but 7 or 8 for a couple days wouldn't shock me.
At the current difficulty will be very hard to see bitcoins under $10, with the next jump it will be impossible.
Really? Like you guys weren't here last month? It was 8USD flat when I first started and that was last week of May.
Still it won't stop me from mining.
Mining = WINNING!
Still it won't stop me from mining.
Mining = WINNING!
last week it dropped to 10$ and within 2 days it went right back up with 21$. We shall see
$10 would be a reasonable return, or possible a little below. This is the value that BTC had before the MASSIVE price pump that occured (most likely from someone with large capital to invest in what people are calling a 'pump and dump'). It will probably dip below 10 as people panic and panic and sell and sell. If bitcoin can survive the runoff, then it will likely return to around $10 and difficulty will drop from its crazy current levels as the people who bought during the $30 / 500k difficulty point return their hardware to stores in droves.
That's my prediction, and we'll see how close I am to the mark.
That's my prediction, and we'll see how close I am to the mark.
good! it'll be time for me to buy in. =D
$14 and dropping fast 
What do you reckon, buy @ $10 ?
$13 !! price is dropping every click of the mouse button ... go go go
Hmm, I'm thinking buy @ $5 - $7
What do you reckon, buy @ $10 ?
$13 !! price is dropping every click of the mouse button ... go go go
Hmm, I'm thinking buy @ $5 - $7
My humble prediction is that it'll plummet to sub $10 in the very near future. Once below 10, the floodgates will open and a lot of panicking people will want to cash in, driving the value even lower (exactly what we're seeing now, just on a grander scale). Wether there's gonna be a dead cat bounce or not, hard to tell.
$14 and dropping fast
What do you reckon, buy @ $10 ?
$13 !! price is dropping every click of the mouse button ... go go go
Hmm, I'm thinking buy @ $5 - $7
What do you reckon, buy @ $10 ?
$13 !! price is dropping every click of the mouse button ... go go go
Hmm, I'm thinking buy @ $5 - $7
Many people will never stop mining.
hardware in Germany and electricity is still relatively cheap over here!
But this month everyone is expecting trans & energy costs to rise up to new heights and that, outside of the winter months!
Brent Oil at 114$ per brl
light crude at 92$ per brl
hardware in Germany and electricity is still relatively cheap over here!
But this month everyone is expecting trans & energy costs to rise up to new heights and that, outside of the winter months!
Brent Oil at 114$ per brl
light crude at 92$ per brl
This all makes me think about returning all the hardware back to store - here in Russia we have 2 weeks grace period where we can return stuff to the store even if there is no issues with it..
Jeez, the idea of making thousands of dollars by just setting up a computer with a few video cards has even made it to as far as russia.
This all makes me think about returning all the hardware back to store - here in Russia we have 2 weeks grace period where we can return stuff to the store even if there is no issues with it..
That's a good idea.
Although I am not from Russia, I will do the same if the value drops bellow $10-12 (loaned hardware FTW).
Many people will never stop mining. They live with their parents and don't pay for power, or stash the rigs at work and hope no one notices. And then come the FPGAs, which achieve a hash per watt rate that no graphics card can ever match. If BTC falls below $10 (and I think it will) the difficulty rate will still go up next week, and afterwards.
over in UK land we are already back in single digits - £8.3 at the moment from a high of £18.x
drop doesn't seem to be slowing either, down more than £2.50 per Bitcoin from yesterday. losing value faster than i can make them it seems.
drop doesn't seem to be slowing either, down more than £2.50 per Bitcoin from yesterday. losing value faster than i can make them it seems.
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