Topic: Who will mine the last Bitcoin? - page 2. (Read 4003 times)
CHUCK NORRIS
More thinking.
this kind of thing http://diginomica.com/2014/06/16/internets-disruptive-hold-tight-blockchain/ reminds me that the block chain encodes all sorts of data.
i can see a future where it is *expensive* to use the block chain for transactions, because the block chain is a very valuable resource. its a worldwide collaborative repository of information, and its extensible such that those transactions can encode all sorts of other information. that kind of authoritative repository is valuable, its a limited resource (think block size) and as such competition to use that resource will drive transaction fees.
bitcoin banks will use it for settlement. intra bank transfers will generate revenue for them, which they can use to pay for actual transaction fees on the block chain and pocket the difference. the more customers you have the more you can drive down fees. bitcoin banks can (and must) prove reserves. i expect some won't, i expect some customers might not care, i expect this is a legitimate strategy in a free market, risk is known, but you might get cheaper fees. maybe insurers will create services that cover this. all of the things that currently exist in our economy can potentially exist with bitcoin *except* inflation. a paper market for bitcoin may very well spring up, much like for gold, and people may very well speculate that all the same things are happening!
in the end though, a bitcoin will always be a bitcoin, you might keep a whole bunch under the mattress for a rainy day, but it may be that transaction fees do become so expensive as to prohibit micro transactions directly on the block chain, and so in the end we will be force to use some kind of banking service.
other solution(s) may exist, i haven't thought of anything yet, but perhaps others already have and are building them as we speak!
this kind of thing http://diginomica.com/2014/06/16/internets-disruptive-hold-tight-blockchain/ reminds me that the block chain encodes all sorts of data.
i can see a future where it is *expensive* to use the block chain for transactions, because the block chain is a very valuable resource. its a worldwide collaborative repository of information, and its extensible such that those transactions can encode all sorts of other information. that kind of authoritative repository is valuable, its a limited resource (think block size) and as such competition to use that resource will drive transaction fees.
bitcoin banks will use it for settlement. intra bank transfers will generate revenue for them, which they can use to pay for actual transaction fees on the block chain and pocket the difference. the more customers you have the more you can drive down fees. bitcoin banks can (and must) prove reserves. i expect some won't, i expect some customers might not care, i expect this is a legitimate strategy in a free market, risk is known, but you might get cheaper fees. maybe insurers will create services that cover this. all of the things that currently exist in our economy can potentially exist with bitcoin *except* inflation. a paper market for bitcoin may very well spring up, much like for gold, and people may very well speculate that all the same things are happening!
in the end though, a bitcoin will always be a bitcoin, you might keep a whole bunch under the mattress for a rainy day, but it may be that transaction fees do become so expensive as to prohibit micro transactions directly on the block chain, and so in the end we will be force to use some kind of banking service.
other solution(s) may exist, i haven't thought of anything yet, but perhaps others already have and are building them as we speak!
transaction fees take over as block reward long before block reward becomes marginal.
thats the kind of thing people should be worried about, whether that assumption plays out, adjusting their risk/reward accordingly
seriously all this stuff is bitcoin 101, even *I* know it !
thats the kind of thing people should be worried about, whether that assumption plays out, adjusting their risk/reward accordingly
seriously all this stuff is bitcoin 101, even *I* know it !
Well I never knew that. I do now, and all that I had to do was subject myself to a mild dose of English condescension in order to find out.
So what we can deduce from that, is that Bitcoin transaction fees are one day, set to become fucking humongous? Totally ill suited to everyday transactions?
It's in the wiki article, which people would do well to read before investing thousands
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin#OverviewSubjecting yourself to condescension to find stuff like this out is optional as far as I know!
You raise a good point though, I've thought about the implications of that a lot, I've thought of side chains, prioritisation, off chain transactions as all being potential reasons why that might not be the case, but in the end it keeps coming back up as a fairly difficult 'problem' to get around.
The only thing keeping me going is that something that nobody has thought of will happen, and that from a perfectly selfish point of view 140 years is a long way off. The chance this is a precursor to another system is high. Whether that means we won't have BTTM (bitcoin to the moon) in the meantime is still anyone's guess. I think its still worth a punt. Or rather, that I need to be insured against the risk of it happening. FOMO powered 'investing'
More than likely someone who's not even alive today.
this.
Most likely many of our children/grandchildren.
The last bitcoin will be divided by many miners. Even now big pool share 25 bitcoins among thousands of miners. The last bitcoin will be mined in blocks with a very low rewards (couple of satoshi probably) so we can assume that 'the last bitcoin' will be mined by pretty much whoever is alive in 2140. Maybe by that time most phones will mine in the background with special integrated chips.
Any wild speculation out there?
There will allways be mining, its just that in the end you will get transaction fees as reward.
Judging by the price rise over the years, it should be more than enough
Silly thread, but with a simple answer: nobody, it won't be worth mining.
Someone without a clue posting utter crap as if it was fact?
On the spec sub forum?
NEVER
What's more likely, that this particular blockchain - the first to get any real adoption- will be chugging merrily along until well into the next century, or that something else will have come along in that time? I mean, back in 1876, Bell's telephone was amazing, but I don't think it would do so well on the market now.
Things evolve, and over this kind of timespan, lack of change would be truly amazing.
Eligius 
Wait a second, I'm confused now is it 2140 or 2040? Many people say either one or the other year. Who's right?
Wait a second, I'm confused now is it 2140 or 2040? Many people say either one or the other year. Who's right?
2140, some of us may still be alive by then; our children will still be there
Dude that's 126 years from now... nobody on this forum or their children will still be alive.
Let's say you're only 18 years old now and hold off having a baby for 22 years when you're 40 years old.
Even in this unlikely scenario your son or daughter would be 104 years old in 2140.
transaction fees take over as block reward long before block reward becomes marginal.
thats the kind of thing people should be worried about, whether that assumption plays out, adjusting their risk/reward accordingly
seriously all this stuff is bitcoin 101, even *I* know it !
thats the kind of thing people should be worried about, whether that assumption plays out, adjusting their risk/reward accordingly
seriously all this stuff is bitcoin 101, even *I* know it !
Well I never knew that. I do now, and all that I had to do was subject myself to a mild dose of English condescension in order to find out.
So what we can deduce from that, is that Bitcoin transaction fees are one day, set to become fucking humongous? Totally ill suited to everyday transactions?
transaction fees take over as block reward long before block reward becomes marginal.
thats the kind of thing people should be worried about, whether that assumption plays out, adjusting their risk/reward accordingly
seriously all this stuff is bitcoin 101, even *I* know it !
thats the kind of thing people should be worried about, whether that assumption plays out, adjusting their risk/reward accordingly
seriously all this stuff is bitcoin 101, even *I* know it !
if people read just half as much as they posted this place would be half as spammy and 4 times smarter.
Then give us some more to read!
What happens to the Bitcoin network when it starts to become uneconomical to mine the very last possible Bitcoins?
Eligius
Wait a second, I'm confused now is it 2140 or 2040? Many people say either one or the other year. Who's right?
Wait a second, I'm confused now is it 2140 or 2040? Many people say either one or the other year. Who's right?
2140, some of us may still be alive by then; our children will still be there
0b100101010000001011111001000000000
thats your starting block reward in satoshis
every 210k blocks bitwise shift it right (i.e. drop the rightmost digit)
thats your new block reward
eg 8th operation in approx 25 years or so...
0b1001010100000010111110010 = 19531250 satoshis = 0.1953125 BTC
and finally after 32 operations in approx 2136 you are left with
0b1
the last block reward is 1 satoshi
the final bitwise shift in approx 2140 leaves you with zero
even the most cursory review of blockchain reward mechanism would lead to the understanding that fees become more important than block reward long before this happens.
if people read just half as much as they posted this place would be half as spammy and 4 times smarter.
thats your starting block reward in satoshis
every 210k blocks bitwise shift it right (i.e. drop the rightmost digit)
thats your new block reward
eg 8th operation in approx 25 years or so...
0b1001010100000010111110010 = 19531250 satoshis = 0.1953125 BTC
and finally after 32 operations in approx 2136 you are left with
0b1
the last block reward is 1 satoshi
the final bitwise shift in approx 2140 leaves you with zero
even the most cursory review of blockchain reward mechanism would lead to the understanding that fees become more important than block reward long before this happens.
if people read just half as much as they posted this place would be half as spammy and 4 times smarter.
+a billion or so
0b100101010000001011111001000000000
thats your starting block reward in satoshis
every 210k blocks bitwise shift it right (i.e. drop the rightmost digit)
thats your new block reward
eg 8th operation in approx 25 years or so...
0b1001010100000010111110010 = 19531250 satoshis = 0.1953125 BTC
and finally after 32 operations in approx 2136 you are left with
0b1
the last block reward is 1 satoshi
the final bitwise shift in approx 2140 leaves you with zero
even the most cursory review of blockchain reward mechanism would lead to the understanding that fees become more important than block reward long before this happens.
if people read just half as much as they posted this place would be half as spammy and 4 times smarter.
thats your starting block reward in satoshis
every 210k blocks bitwise shift it right (i.e. drop the rightmost digit)
thats your new block reward
eg 8th operation in approx 25 years or so...
0b1001010100000010111110010 = 19531250 satoshis = 0.1953125 BTC
and finally after 32 operations in approx 2136 you are left with
0b1
the last block reward is 1 satoshi
the final bitwise shift in approx 2140 leaves you with zero
even the most cursory review of blockchain reward mechanism would lead to the understanding that fees become more important than block reward long before this happens.
if people read just half as much as they posted this place would be half as spammy and 4 times smarter.
Miners from year 2140 
but who? that is very wild speculation if we guess it from now
another similiar thread
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/what-will-be-the-date-of-last-bitcoin-mined-173145
Unless there no transactions there will be a mining reward infinately (or at least as long as there is an interest in bitcoin).but who? that is very wild speculation if we guess it from now
another similiar thread
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/what-will-be-the-date-of-last-bitcoin-mined-173145
Its just the "printing money out of thin air" that will stop.
Well, assuming there are no changes. Far to many protocol changes needed anway (e.g. block size). So basicly the promise "no more bitcoins newly mined after 2140" is worth about as much as if the USA today said no more "money printing after 2140".
Ok, there is a fixed rate at which bitcoins will be created. It is public knowledge and millions of investors put money into the system taking that factor as one of the more important considerations.
The only motivation for increasing the BTC creation schedule is to pull some kind of heist to allot new BTC to miners who have colluded amongst themselves and the core developers to defraud the entire bitcoin ecosystem. The entirety of the bitcoin ecosystem would revolt and this would mean the end of bitcoin. It won't happen for similar reasons as to why the 51% attack won't happen.
The USG gets away with it because they convinced a less informed population to accept their system before they understood the implications. Today, we understand the implications of modifying the BTC allocation and there is no way BTC users would stand for it.
P.S. There is a big difference between a block reward and transaction fees.
Maybe bitcoin in 2140 will be replaced by a new criptocurrency who knows, but the last btc will be mined by Satoshi's children.
Miners from year 2140
but who? that is very wild speculation if we guess it from now
another similiar thread
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/what-will-be-the-date-of-last-bitcoin-mined-173145
Unless there no transactions there will be a mining reward infinately (or at least as long as there is an interest in bitcoin).but who? that is very wild speculation if we guess it from now
another similiar thread
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/what-will-be-the-date-of-last-bitcoin-mined-173145
Its just the "printing money out of thin air" that will stop.
Well, assuming there are no changes. Far to many protocol changes needed anway (e.g. block size). So basicly the promise "no more bitcoins newly mined after 2140" is worth about as much as if the USA today said no more "money printing after 2140".
Sorry then seems like i misunderstood the question 
My mistake. I misread your post.
Guys i guess by last coin he means last block worth 1 coin?
As stated in the above postings, the last block will have a reward of much less than 1 coin.
If you care for a word problem:
The block reward is planned to halve every 4 years for 132 years with an original block reward of 50. How many coins will be issued in the last block?
I know you probably are talking about 2140 scenario, but the last full block with greater than 1 bitcoin will be mined in 2028 (1.5625) then 2032 is 0.78125
I just realized something. We have only been through 1 halving and the next one is 2 yrs away. Bitcoin seems very recent (by this standpoint)
https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Controlled_supply
2009 50
2013 25
2016 12.5
2020 6.25
2024 3.125
2028 1.5625
2032 0.78125
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
...just for the fun of it. Lets say price is 640 and assuming that we double per halving, then in 2016 we get 1280. 2020 we get 2560. 2024 we get 5120
2028 we get 10240
(above was just for fun and not to be taken seriously because of its various flaws...just felt a little mathy)
I just realized something. We have only been through 1 halving and the next one is 2 yrs away. Bitcoin seems very recent (by this standpoint)
https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Controlled_supply
2009 50
2013 25
2016 12.5
2020 6.25
2024 3.125
2028 1.5625
2032 0.78125
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
...just for the fun of it. Lets say price is 640 and assuming that we double per halving, then in 2016 we get 1280. 2020 we get 2560. 2024 we get 5120
2028 we get 10240
(above was just for fun and not to be taken seriously because of its various flaws...just felt a little mathy)
Jump to: