It all look like ETC is going to win the battle. If you still have the btc, you might just want to buy more this time else you'd miss the train going there.
Rides like this don't come along everyday eh?
Logically, there's not much reason why ETH and ETC shouldn't come close to parity, as their propositions are nearly identical. The small differences between them actually neutralize each other:
- the argument "there's a team behind it - the Foundation" can be a bonus for ETH, but the fact that there's no centralized power behind ETC can be a bonus for ETC
- the argument "there are many improvements for ETH in the future" can be a bonus for ETH, but their absence (apart from copying code) can be a bonus for ETC: for instance, the switch to PoS that is foreseen but not coded yet in ETH is an uncertainty that is probably absent from ETC
- the argument "ETC is a thief's coin" can be seen as a bonus for ETH, unless there's a next hack. The fact that ETC is immutable and is neutral wrt to "morality" can be seen as a factor of stability versus ETH which is now supposed to fork over every theft.
So my idea is that ETH and ETC will reach parity or close. However, the big question is: will this be reached by ETC climbing, or by ETH falling ? Many people think that ETC will climb. But we see that the overall market cap of ETC + ETH is slowly but steadily falling.
It is very well probable that ETC has done most of its climbing, and that we now wait for ETH to plunge to near ETC levels.
This may very well correspond to the perceived loss of value of ethereum since the DAO hack, namely the essential impossibility of making large complex contracts without unforeseen effects. The dream of complex smart contracts was what was driving the long term value of ethereum (and could even threaten bitcoin's first place in the long run). That dream turned out to be a night mare now, and so, ethereum was strongly overvalued in the market. So the total market cap of ETH + ETC should drop significantly taking this into account.
As such, it is not so much ETC which is in for a rise, but rather ETH which is in for a severe market correction in the long run: the value of smart contracts is much smaller than anticipated earlier on, with the DAO enthusiasm.