Why $17?? - page 3. | Bitcointalksearch.org

Oldminer

legendary

Activity: 1022

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Quote from: proudhon on June 30, 2011, 02:20:57 PM

My prediction is further exchange rate decreases as they buy the bitcoins that scared sellers sell to them and subsequently move their flypaper bids even lower.

Quite possibly the case. However, I think its quite clear to most people by now that BTC is quite a robust little bugger that has a potential value many times higher than its current rate of exchange, and so owners of the coin are just as happy to sit this out. I doubt BTC value is going to drop anytime soon so I think owners of BTC have nothing to fear and nothing to lose. Of course, this isnt the case for potential issue buyers face playing this game which is new buyers moving into the market and buying up. This of course will raise the price. Then we will see the fence sitters will rush in too to get coins before they go too high, increasing the price even further, and its game on.

proudhon

legendary

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Quote from: error on June 30, 2011, 01:46:56 PM

Come on, someone push it up to 17.25!

Not going to happen. In all likelihood, the market is being manipulated down by people with the money/BTC to do it. My prediction is further exchange rate decreases as they buy the bitcoins that scared sellers sell to them and subsequently move their flypaper bids even lower.

error

hero member

Activity: 588

Merit: 500

Come on, someone push it up to 17.25!

YoYa

hero member

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Always verify deals with me through my public key!

Quote from: KingFisher9 on June 30, 2011, 11:54:35 AM

People were freaking out when the price was jumping around and the market was very volatile, now people are freaking out that the price is too stable...

So effin true Cheesy

Taking a look at the charts:
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zigHourlyzvztgSzbgBzm1g10zm2g25zi1gMACDzi2gRSIzi3gSStoch

Current trading volumes are down, on par with early/late may, we're in between cycles at the moment, and those who are playing are being rightly conservative....why just buy in when you can hang out for a better deal.

Also...people....bubble mentality! I know we all share great confidence in the idea, but bitcoin is as liable to fall as it is to rise.....you'll never know when it's as good as it gets until after.

lemonginger

full member

Activity: 210

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firstbits: 121vnq

cost of a btc has nothing to do with cost to mine it. mining difficulty will naturally seek an equilibrium based on worth of btc. worth of btc is determined by demand for them (increase of supply is set up to remain known) - nothing more, nothing less. not sure why this fallacy is repeated over and over again on these boards.

also not sure how a few days of no fluctuation equals "stability" in a currency that has still increased many times in value over the past 30 days, much less the past year. Give me three months with no more than +-1% per day fluctuations and no greater than +-5% fluctuations overall and we can start talking about price stability.

DamienBlack

jr. member

Activity: 56

Merit: 1

The reason is simple:

http://www.google.com/trends?q=bitcoin&ctab=0&geo=all&date=ytd&sort=0

We've temporarily leveled off on google trends. Our search engine trend has been _highly_ correlated with the price of bitcoin. See my post here from a few weeks ago.

http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=17318.0

I think this lull is temporary, and as soon as interest picks up in new, more mainstream sectors, the price will start rising again. Just keep checking the google trend line, when it goes up, you've got about a day or two before prices start rising (google trends is delayed three or four days, which is about the time someone needs to get money in).

dbitcoin

hero member

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BTCDig - mining pool

Because we will see $14 or less soon.

KingFisher9

member

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People were freaking out when the price was jumping around and the market was very volatile, now people are freaking out that the price is too stable...

Alex Thornton

newbie

Activity: 46

Merit: 0

Quote from: airdata on June 30, 2011, 09:36:48 AM

coins are going for $20-30 on ebay.

Of course I can't say how many people are buying them using stolen ebay/paypal information which is very likely unfortunately.

coins are more expensive on Ebay because there is a "risk premium". If you sell on Mt. Gox, you can be sure you are not cheated by the buyer (ie. no chargebacks.) You do not have that protection on Ebay, so sellers demand a higher price for their increased risk.

ElectricMonk

newbie

Activity: 52

Merit: 0

OK. Let's assume that it costs $1.50 - $2.50 in electricity/equipment to make a bitcoin.

Why don't I give up work and start mining tomorrow?

There's labour costs / opportunity costs.
There's the accumulation of knowledge.
Lack of hardware supply? (supply drops, price is higher)

There's more cost than just the electricity at the moment but eventually the electricity costs will be the main factor. I don't think people are factoring in the really big costs - the opportunity cost being the greatest.

Seems possible that $17 might be close to the cost of producing a bitcoin given the current conditions (opportunity costs, hardware availability, knowledge acquisition, electricity) and perhaps that's why it has stabilised.

My comment regarding kWh per BTC was misleading.

See this post for a similar discussion regarind mining cost / price correlation...
http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=23360.60

yamato57

newbie

Activity: 24

Merit: 0

with recent events of hacking and bitcoin trojans im not surprised its stable at 17 and also the diffculty will rise again making it hardder to earn any coins. I have 2 6990s and only make 1 coin a day and sometimes just .88 so hopefully mtgox will be back on their feet and we will be getting $30+ per coin.

qualia8

full member

Activity: 237

Merit: 100

Quote from: the founder on June 30, 2011, 10:53:15 AM

look the problem is adoption... at most there are what... 100,000 of us.. total (as it stands now).

If the adoption rate increases than the prices increase.... the problem is 99.9999% of the population don't know what a bitcoin is.. and the .00001% of the population that does is hording them.... in other words it's changing hands ONLY within that 100,000 people.... you need to widen the market to get this to work.. it needs to reach 100,000,000 people....

You're trying to go international with a population of Allentown, PA.

you need easier to use clients, mobile access, central wallets, debit cards that work with it, you need to adopt this currency to a quasi tangible one... merchants need to be able to log bitcoins in their quickbooks as a cash deposit... the IRS wants to tax them the same way they tax dollar transfers...

I think your getting the point... the problem is out of the 100,000 people using them.. only hundred or two of them are actually building tools to make it more used.

this will take years to develop ....

Good stuff. My own guess about recent price stability is that some early adopter(s) decided not only to sell above 17, but to buy below it, thus stabilizing the price. If so, it's a personal sacrifice for them, but a boon to the bitcoin economy, which will lose the speculators, but gain merchants. Ultimately, this is good for the speculators too, but it will be awhile before they can cash out.

d3wo

member

Activity: 69

Merit: 10

Kupo!

Quote

You're trying to go international with a population of Allentown, PA.

Bitcoin is already international Cheesy

i live west of bali
The problem is the population.

Quote

this will take years to develop ....

Agree... but hoping togo exponentially soon

flug

sr. member

Activity: 280

Merit: 250

Quote from: the founder on June 30, 2011, 10:53:15 AM

this will take years to develop ....

mp3 players had been around for ages and no one was buying them.. then apple came along and changed everything overnight.

Quote from: cbeast on June 29, 2011, 07:49:24 PM

Seriously, it's only going to take an easy to use smartphone app to go viral to send bitcoin skywards. As long as it checks the market, uses a barcode scanner, has a secure wallet, and is fast, we will have a useful ninja currency.

this could do it for bitcoin, and it could do it overnight

BkkCoins

hero member

Activity: 784

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firstbits:1MinerQ

Quote from: grid on June 30, 2011, 10:44:32 AM

Quote from: BkkCoins on June 30, 2011, 09:26:35 AM

A typical electricity cost now is $1.50 per BTC.

That sounds like an old figure.

At the current difficulty of 1,379,223 you need roughly 1,370 MHash/s to generate 1 BTC per day.
The efficiency of most GPU miners hovers at a bit under 1.3MHash/J which means you need to have just the GPUs consuming at least 1kW of electricity to get that MHash rate.
1kW over 24 hours = 24kWh
24kWH*0.10$=2.4$/BTC
This is a very conservative estimate as real world mining rig efficiencies as measured at the socket are even lower. But still your point is valid and the mining price is way lower than $17.

I just checked and I'm actually using the same figure, 1370.
So it must just be a bit different power usage in equipment.
I was using 3x5770s 600MHs @ 375W total, 0.625x24x0.10=1.5

the founder

sr. member

Activity: 448

Merit: 251

Bitcoin

Quote from: airdata on June 30, 2011, 09:36:48 AM

coins are going for $20-30 on ebay.

Of course I can't say how many people are buying them using stolen ebay/paypal information which is very likely unfortunately.

that's because more people have ebay accounts than mtgox accounts...

look the problem is adoption... at most there are what... 100,000 of us.. total (as it stands now).

If the adoption rate increases than the prices increase.... the problem is 99.9999% of the population don't know what a bitcoin is.. and the .00001% of the population that does is hording them.... in other words it's changing hands ONLY within that 100,000 people.... you need to widen the market to get this to work.. it needs to reach 100,000,000 people....

You're trying to go international with a population of Allentown, PA.

you need easier to use clients, mobile access, central wallets, debit cards that work with it, you need to adopt this currency to a quasi tangible one... merchants need to be able to log bitcoins in their quickbooks as a cash deposit... the IRS wants to tax them the same way they tax dollar transfers...

I think your getting the point... the problem is out of the 100,000 people using them.. only hundred or two of them are actually building tools to make it more used.

this will take years to develop ....

grid

newbie

Activity: 42

Merit: 0

Quote from: BkkCoins on June 30, 2011, 09:26:35 AM

A typical electricity cost now is $1.50 per BTC.

That sounds like an old figure.

At the current difficulty of 1,379,223 you need roughly 1,370 MHash/s to generate 1 BTC per day.
The efficiency of most GPU miners hovers at a bit under 1.3MHash/J which means you need to have just the GPUs consuming at least 1kW of electricity to get that MHash rate.
1kW over 24 hours = 24kWh
24kWH*0.10$=2.4$/BTC
This is a very conservative estimate as real world mining rig efficiencies as measured at the socket are even lower. But still your point is valid and the mining price is way lower than $17.

Oldminer

legendary

Activity: 1022

Merit: 1001

Quote from: Mobius on June 30, 2011, 09:24:24 AM

Let me consult my magic 17 Ball (1+7=8)

"Looks cloudy - Try again later"

Yea thats just a storm-front passing...outlook forecast is fine and sunny

clonedone

full member

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Quote from: Findeton on June 30, 2011, 07:36:17 AM

BECAUSE.

Boss

airdata

hero member

Activity: 1148

Merit: 501

coins are going for $20-30 on ebay.

Of course I can't say how many people are buying them using stolen ebay/paypal information which is very likely unfortunately.

Topic: Why $17?? - page 3. (Read 13167 times)