Guarantee doesn't have to be in a literal sense, i'm fairly certain most of you understood that but some decided to have some fun
Yes it is Guaranteed, in terms of fundamentals. For example if someone told you that there is a small town that lacks a decent supply of food, and there is an opportunity for you to open a food store without competition selling food items heck yeah i'm throwing some money there as an investment as returns will be guaranteed (in the fundamental sense). People need to eat food and they'll come to you that's the basic and most powerful fundamental of that investment. How you manage that investment is another story (for example not securing a good supply chain etc)
And for those of you (many it seems) calling for a $0-$100 Bitcoin, i mean really? Think again, If Bitcoin crashes back to $0-$100 it'll be one of the shortest lived technology innovations in history, and that also means Bitcoin is a piece of garbage with no fundamentals, no innovation, no vision and this whole thing was a short lived tulip-mania.
And btw, the 100% in 1 year i mentioned is not too far fetched, it puts you in the range of $1200-$1600 (depends when you bought at the recent dip)
The fundamentals might be ok. (what about China ?) But we have seen a rise from USD 10 to USD 1000 within a year. I´d say all good news for the next 5 years are already priced in.
I do well remember when I bought my first bitcoins in 2011 for USD 20 and suddenly they were only worth USD 2. I bought more at USD 5 and was shitting my pants. I would not consider that going back to double digits short lived. I mean going back to 45 would still be a 300% profit comparing January this year. I´d say a very good return....
We all do not know what is going to happen, but looking at the charts, the news, the competition and the technology itself, there are currently more downside risks than upside risks.
To many people have jumped the train to become rich, not because they believe in Bitcoin. I have seen it twice already, it goes quick, quicker than everyone would expect, and suddenly your 300% profit is at a 50% loss.
EDIT: and sorry if you thought I was making fun of you. I might have a bit, but at some stage I was hoping you might be going for it. It would have been a great trade for me. Looking at how crazy some people here are, I would have not been surprised if you would have taken the offer....