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Topic: Why bitcoin isn't going to make it: The National Security Agency (Read 4169 times)

legendary
Activity: 4760
Merit: 1283
Large organizations are terrible at keeping secrets. Even clever people make stupid mistakes from time to time. Even patriots defect from time to time.

I would say that defection at this point is basically part and parcel to being defined as a 'patriot'.  That's a personal view of course, and based on my understanding of the nature of our country (the US.)

Relying on secrecy in order to stay ahead in security is a bad strategy.  The more experts you recruit into your research team, the higher the risk of leaks.  All it takes is one rogue employee in 100. The fewer experts you recruit, the less competitive you become compared to the worldwide open research community in academia.  Either way you lose.

Yes.  The only silver lining to the massive dragnet and billion dollar datacenters is that casting a wide net yields lot so fish.  If anyone is eventually called to account for their past malfeasance it will likely be due to the existence of this resource.  But it is far from a certainty that this happy outcome will ever be realized.

I looked around once a few years ago to see if there was some sort of open-source intelligence platform.  Something like just interested participants inputting data about observations, and other participants writing code to analyze the data.  Something distantly related to Wikileaks in some ways.  Didn't find anything, and I 'm not sure it is terribly viable since the cost of attacking it (with bogus or crafted input) is probably orders of magnitude less than that of defending.  Asymmetric warfare going the wrong way (by my point of view.)

legendary
Activity: 938
Merit: 1001
bitcoin - the aerogel of money
Large organizations are terrible at keeping secrets. Even clever people make stupid mistakes from time to time. Even patriots defect from time to time.

Relying on secrecy in order to stay ahead in security is a bad strategy.  The more experts you recruit into your research team, the higher the risk of leaks.  All it takes is one rogue employee in 100. The fewer experts you recruit, the less competitive you become compared to the worldwide open research community in academia.  Either way you lose.

Also, how can the NSA be certain that the Russians or Chinese haven't independently discovered the same "secrets"?

It makes much more sense for the NSA to base security on openness rather than secrecy, because openness creates predictable security.
legendary
Activity: 2126
Merit: 1001
@Fool [& @axus]
This is yet another FUD thread.

Agreed.

"I once told [to Eustace Mullins] how much respect I had for George Orwell's daring to write 1984 -- to which he sharply replied: "It's a great piece of pro-government propaganda -- they win in the end." Mr. Mullins is of course right: Orwell's Big Brother is always one step ahead, almost omniscient -- and therefore invincible."
- Beatrice Mott. This Difficult Individual Eustace Mullins — and the Remarkable Ezra Pound.
March 20, 2010
http://www.theoccidentalobserver.net/authors/Mott-Mullins.html#R


Mind==blown.

Thank you.

Ente
member
Activity: 62
Merit: 10
@Fool [& @axus]
This is yet another FUD thread.

Agreed.

"I once told [to Eustace Mullins] how much respect I had for George Orwell's daring to write 1984 -- to which he sharply replied: "It's a great piece of pro-government propaganda -- they win in the end." Mr. Mullins is of course right: Orwell's Big Brother is always one step ahead, almost omniscient -- and therefore invincible."
- Beatrice Mott. This Difficult Individual Eustace Mullins — and the Remarkable Ezra Pound.
March 20, 2010
http://www.theoccidentalobserver.net/authors/Mott-Mullins.html#R
legendary
Activity: 4760
Merit: 1283
This assertion or some permutation of it would not surprise me in the least.  NSA agents are among the most likely people to know how sausage is made and I bet that more than a few of them are fairly disgusted by it.

I rather guess they are just crypto nerds and as exited as a lot of other people that finally a currency based on cryptography has taken off and is "out in the wild". Smiley
Also a nice hello to the NSA person reading this and biting his/her knuckles for not being allowed to comment at all about his/her work and any of the assumptions in this thread.

I doubt that almost anyone who has their shit together at all has much interest in participating in this forum.

Additionally, those who have an professional exposure to the intelligence community are well trained to keep their mouths shut by default.  In my (thankfully) limited time in the DC area I noticed that the entire community almost all the way down to the 7-11 clerks adopted a polite but closed attitude.  It contrasted sharply with West Coasters who tend to happily blather on about anything.

legendary
Activity: 1736
Merit: 1006

Thinking from other perspectives, it's almost certain that Chinese government will take over Avalon technology.  Bitcoin is too small now, but when it becomes big enough to matter, they will seize control of it and mass produce their own.  So, I hope BFL and other companies succeed so that the "power" doesn't belong to one country.

Why would the Chinese (or any government) want to seize control of bitcoin when decentralization is its greatest strength? It doesn't make any sense.

Bitcoin (algorithm, network, and currency) is far more valuable when it's open-source, ubiquitous, and decentralized.
full member
Activity: 121
Merit: 100
The truth is out there.
/Fox Mulder

No
The truth is out there in the blockchain.
 Smiley
legendary
Activity: 2618
Merit: 1007
This assertion or some permutation of it would not surprise me in the least.  NSA agents are among the most likely people to know how sausage is made and I bet that more than a few of them are fairly disgusted by it.

I rather guess they are just crypto nerds and as exited as a lot of other people that finally a currency based on cryptography has taken off and is "out in the wild". Smiley
Also a nice hello to the NSA person reading this and biting his/her knuckles for not being allowed to comment at all about his/her work and any of the assumptions in this thread.
legendary
Activity: 4760
Merit: 1283
NSA agents are all here, they know how secure sha256 is and they are buying BTC like crazy, their salary have just been lowered by the government spending cuts and they need some extra income to make their ends meet Wink

This assertion or some permutation of it would not surprise me in the least.  NSA agents are among the most likely people to know how sausage is made and I bet that more than a few of them are fairly disgusted by it.  Many of them are likely recognize the magnitude of the perils that our society and systems face and thus, of course, to recognize the potential of a solution such as Bitcoin.

I am quite surprised at the uniformly positive media attention that Bitcoin has received over the last year and a half to be honest.  One hypothesis is that it is at least of interest if not actively deployed by a range of individuals from a variety of different backgrounds.

legendary
Activity: 1988
Merit: 1012
Beyond Imagination
NSA agents are all here, they know how secure sha256 is and they are buying BTC like crazy, their salary have just been lowered by the government spending cuts and they need some extra income to make their ends meet Wink
hero member
Activity: 672
Merit: 500
The enigma wasn't used in banking applications... Roll Eyes

Did I say it was? Roll Eyes
legendary
Activity: 4760
Merit: 1283
On the other hand if you have the means to break SHA256(SHA256)) (=mining) and ECDSA (=Bitcoin private keys), why waste that on Bitcoin?
Don't get me wrong, maybe Bitcoin becomes a big threat for the establishment in the future - but there are far more valuable targets.

Another thing to consider:
Not every great cryptographer is from the USA, there are other countries with smart people out there as well... of course NSA will be ahead a bit with cryptoanalysis (I read recently an interesting article about Bitcoin mining with SAT solvers) and breaking codes just because of the ressources they have - still that doesn't mean they can magically "break" mathematics. Current crypto is considered strong enough that it makes much more sense to attack the implementation (side channel attacks) than the actual algorithm. as bitcoin however only consists of data, not hardware they need to attack the mathematics behind ECDSA and SHA256. This doesn't require a huge budget, this requires brilliant people which can show up anywhere on the globe.

Lastly:
Even though a lot of crypto nowadays is public and 100% open source still only few people understand every detail behind and even fewer then really start questioning established truths or trying out if assumptions actually hold. I bet there are some algorithms out there that are considered quite secure but that have some flaws that are very well hidden and only surface after you start from scratch and test everything. Also there's a huge class of proprietary algorithms that are "secure by obscurity" and usually easily broken because they contain rookie mistakes.

I sense that a) a good percentage of the truly brilliant minds for cryoto work are in academia, b) a lot of these folks have strong ethics and principles, and c) deep insights and results related to cryptography are a pinnacle of success in that environment.  So, I have much more faith in the strength of open-source cryptographic algorithms than my native ability to analyze them otherwise allows.

I do believe that if Bitcoin failed to to cryptographic exploits, it would freeze up for a time, but be relatively quickly re-implemented with the pre-exploited block chain forming the basis for it's distribution.

I have significant questions and fears about the viability of Bitcoin, but core cryptographic attack is not really one of the reasons why.

legendary
Activity: 1615
Merit: 1000
No government is going to publicize they have broken an encryption algorithm. Remember the Enigma machines? They broke that and relied on it for quite a while and went at all lengths to keep it a secret.

That doesn't mean they have broken, or can break modern crypto.
legendary
Activity: 2618
Merit: 1007
The enigma wasn't used in banking applications... Roll Eyes
hero member
Activity: 658
Merit: 500
No government is going to publicize they have broken an encryption algorithm. Remember the Enigma machines? They broke that and relied on it for quite a while and went at all lengths to keep it a secret.
hero member
Activity: 728
Merit: 500
In cryptography we trust
The NSA still tries to recruit the best, but not everyone is interested or available.

Yes I heard their recruiting interviews don't always work out.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l8rQNdBmPek
hero member
Activity: 588
Merit: 500
Hero VIP ultra official trusted super staff puppet
Third, CIA might also benefit from it Smiley

This. Why does anyone think "anonymous" is anyone but the CIA? Why does anyone think Tor was created by hackers when it's major funding is provided continuously by the US government (the FBI if I recall correctly)? Why would anyone think that Bitcoin is anything but awesome for what the CIA does-- which is to pretend that there are bad guys doing what it is that they did themselves.
full member
Activity: 196
Merit: 100
First, this network is small (not so many users). Second, it doesnt operate with a lot of money/value. Third, CIA might also benefit from it Smiley
hero member
Activity: 672
Merit: 500
I suppose it's plausible but unlikely.  First, SHA256 and ECDSA is not unique to Bitcoin, coming out and openly cracking it would compromise financial systems around the world.  With a money supply equivalent of roughly $250-$300 million, Bitcoin is still peanuts and not a perceived threat.  At least not on the level to force some government agency to take this type of step.  It's easier to orchestrate a 51% attack anyway.  That would take Bitcoin down solely, and not damage the encryption itself (that is used widely).

The only reason I say it's plausible is because of history.  Just because a code is broken doesn't mean it will necessarily be known right away.  The Enigma cipher was broken by Poland in 1932.  They didn't share that news with the world until 7 years later and there was a world war going on for gods sake.  So yeah I suppose it's plausible but highly unlikely.

hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 500
Manateeeeeeees
Guys, cmon, this is a very thin trolling  Wink
Just read the first post and think about it  Grin

Your avatar image is out of date - should say $27.
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