Hello everybody!
People are trying to guess where is the final point of the current market dump
I have a theory why bitcoin will go down to 5000-4800 levels, I'll try to explain my theory. It based on some observations of past markets
1)
First of all, let's compare Market Cycle graph, Chart BTCUSD 2013-2015, and the current chart. I made an image,
https://imgur.com/a/dKBcQ1H As you can see, a lot of similar points and in general they are VERY SIMILAR
So, Capitulation phase is higher then Anger, Anger is higher then Depression
That's why I can easily imagine, that the price will go below 6000
2)
Recently I found very interesting graphics, based on comparison of the current price chart and Wyckoff charts
https://imgur.com/a/opLle8OThis is the second reason why the price can go below 6k
3)
So, where it will stop exactly?
I think, we should keep in mind an area 5000-4800, because this is strong support level and also global 0,236 fib level, what makes it even more powerful
https://www.tradingview.com/x/Ml9uJDfU/I think this could be the final destination
Of course, this is nothing more than theory. But I hope that was at least interesting.
Very nice, but i alwais try to find and explain to myself why would whale do that, where is his incom etc.
1) Market cycle graph just show how it sould teoriticaly looks like. How it is written in books. Makret likes to be unpredictible. Whales likes to hide their moves. But in most cases when there is no nonmarket risks (regulations, gouverments) or positive news this should like like that. So point for you
2) Wyckoff charts shows whale acumulation process. Simply shows the easies way to accumulate assets for whales. Those deep that you pointed is for causing panic. To buy last coins/shares on big volume. I think that whale already tried to dump below 6000 (during run to 6100) when he was stapped by big volumen (5k+ bitcoins in 5 min only on bitfinex). When i was reading about Wyckoff i also readed that those "spring" is not nessesary and sometimes happends as fake showing that this was distribution not acumulation process to caus bigger volume and panic.
this huge green candle.
That gave this whale (and every other) a signal that he is not the biggest whale here. And those 6000 will be protected. Thats why i think that others wont try to dump lower than 6k as long as we are in accumulation process (it could also be distribution:) ).
Thats why i think that if (according to Wyckoff we are in acumulation) than final try to destroy support to buy more cheep coins was already done and failed. Than we should go up from here. If we are in distribution process - and i doubt about it - than 5000 could be not enought for whale to strat buy again (only 20% profit)