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Topic: Why BTC is losing value. - page 2. (Read 4678 times)

full member
Activity: 168
Merit: 100
September 05, 2011, 08:40:20 PM
#27
Gold is about to explode. There are plenty of investors shorting gold right now.

Most Central Banks are not and China is increasing its gold reserves as a strategic policy to destabilize our dollar.

At least that's what the US State Department believes. (3)

Shorting Gold is financial suicide.
legendary
Activity: 1204
Merit: 1000
฿itcoin: Currency of Resistance!
September 05, 2011, 08:39:32 PM
#26
We need to get more coins out to more people
Why do we need to do that? To ensure the position of the bitcoin wealthy?

I’d say we need to polish the Bitcoin client, infrastructure, everything, before we try to attract new people.

Agree!!!

But, more people should have the already mined Bitcoins...
legendary
Activity: 1666
Merit: 1057
Marketing manager - GO MP
September 05, 2011, 08:20:12 PM
#25
3) Contrary to popular belief, spending Bitcoins does not make them more valuable or bolster their market price. In fact, the opposite is true, when you sell a Bitcoin in exchange for a good, you are expressing a preference of the latter over the former and increasing the supply of Bitcoin while decreasing the supply of goods. In other words, every time you sell a Bitcoin, whether for USD or a good or service, you are increasing the market supply of the coin and thus it's relative price will be slightly less. Consider the counter-factual: if nobody ever sold a Bitcoin for anything, it's price would rise to infinity. If your goal is to increase the BTC price, don't ever offer them in a transaction for anything. 
You make a valid point, however imo this is a fallacy.
There is something as a middle ground of how much something to be supposed to serve as money can be hoarded and spend to give it its most value - as a percentage.
In the case of bitcoin a very vast majority is hoarded and even when transactions take place it is just so in order to be hoarded by someone else. Take the example of gold. There is and was always a significant percentage of it used for practical use, and/or barter and trade. Industry, ancient gold plating and so on.

What the actual percentage would have to be depends on the circumstances but from what I've read it should be 50% or at least some double figures. Trying to guess how many bitcoins are actually used as a currency makes me faint, it might be something like 0.0001%.
The effect is very high volatility because the only way to value it are the expectation of future value (which _have_ to be based upon it's later expected value as a currency at some point) and the costs to generate it.
If we had actual business transactions taking place not only would it buffer the decline a growing economy would actually boost it's value.
legendary
Activity: 1008
Merit: 1023
Democracy is the original 51% attack
September 05, 2011, 08:05:31 PM
#24
There are almost too many fallacies in this thread to even begin, but let's try...

1) OP - your thesis is self-contradictory. You are claiming that bitcoin is deflationary, thus its price rises relative to goods, thus nobody spends it, thus the price is falling. Well, I must ask, if the price is falling relative to goods then it's suddenly an "inflationary" currency so people should spend it. This whole deflation argument is a fallacy - work your way through the whole process and you will discover that it fixes itself. It's the same reason you buy a new computer even though the same computer will be half the price in 8 months.

2) Bitcoin is not deflationary. It is perpetually inflationary at a decreasing rate. The fact that demand may increase so quickly as to drive up the market price is a question of demand and supply, not quantity of money. The quantity is always increasing at a decreasing rate, thus it is always inflationary until that last coin in mined, at which point it will be neither inflationary nor deflationary, but static.

3) Contrary to popular belief, spending Bitcoins does not make them more valuable or bolster their market price. In fact, the opposite is true, when you sell a Bitcoin in exchange for a good, you are expressing a preference of the latter over the former and increasing the supply of Bitcoin while decreasing the supply of goods. In other words, every time you sell a Bitcoin, whether for USD or a good or service, you are increasing the market supply of the coin and thus it's relative price will be slightly less. Consider the counter-factual: if nobody ever sold a Bitcoin for anything, it's price would rise to infinity. If your goal is to increase the BTC price, don't ever offer them in a transaction for anything.  

4) The supply and demand for coins on the market dictates their price, nothing else. The "mining difficulty" doesn't matter. It's super hard for me to mine mud from the bottom of the ocean, but I reckon the market price of such mud would be less than impressive. The value of Bitcoins is not "backed" in any way by the difficult of creating them.

5) The price of Bitcoin is greatly affected by the fact that 7200 new coins are mined each day. However, this number was the same back when we were at $30 per coin. The much larger driver of price is market psychology. When people are feeling good about Bitcoin, they buy it and when they feel concerned they sell it. Miners producing those coins will stop putting them on the market the moment they think the price is likely to go higher.

6) A good speculator knows that the mood of the market is often wrong. It is precisely when price is low, yet value is high that you should buy something.

And while the price has been falling these past months, the value of Bitcoin is much greater than it was a few months ago. It is maturing rapidly with new usefulness. Merchant solutions are finally now available. Casinos like Strike Sapphire have launched. Prediction markets like Bets of Bitcoin have launched. Massive retail offerings like BitcoinDeals are in testing. And there is much more going on than the people on the forums realize. Plus, we've now seen just how resilient Bitcoin is, surviving numerous scandals over the past few months. Even the perceived threat of new forked chains is proving totally unfounded. The Bitcoin ecosystem is being constantly bombarded with problems and inoculated against them. And STILL no significant bug or vulnerability of the Bitcoin protocol has been found.
legendary
Activity: 1666
Merit: 1057
Marketing manager - GO MP
September 05, 2011, 07:57:18 PM
#23
One thing I wanted to add: All this stuff about generating media interest, getting more people to join and invest etc. makes Bitcoin sound like a pyramid scheme to me.

If Bitcoin is found convenient and useful, people will come on their own. Currently it’s not very convenient or useful for most.
+1
N12
donator
Activity: 1610
Merit: 1010
September 05, 2011, 07:54:37 PM
#22
One thing I wanted to add: All this stuff about generating media interest, getting more people to join and invest etc. makes Bitcoin sound like a pyramid scheme to me.

If Bitcoin is found convenient and useful, people will come on their own. Currently it’s not very convenient or useful for most.
hero member
Activity: 504
Merit: 500
September 05, 2011, 07:49:02 PM
#21
We need to get more coins out to more people
Why do we need to do that? To ensure the position of the bitcoin wealthy?

I’d say we need to polish the Bitcoin client, infrastructure, everything, before we try to attract new people.


/thread

The current declining state of new speculator blood provides an excellent opportunity to get our heads screwed back on straight.

1. Would be very nice to see the client or a good client overlay with the ability to generate a single use wallet with a new address to send a predetermined amount of coins to that let us pick the location the generated wallet was placed. i.e. flash drive, etc.
N12
donator
Activity: 1610
Merit: 1010
September 05, 2011, 07:41:11 PM
#20
We need to get more coins out to more people
Why do we need to do that? To ensure the position of the bitcoin wealthy?

I’d say we need to polish the Bitcoin client, infrastructure, everything, before we try to attract new people.
hero member
Activity: 575
Merit: 500
The North Remembers
September 05, 2011, 07:38:34 PM
#19
Perhaps people should start buying and selling things with Bitcoin. Perhaps on BitBid.net. Tongue
newbie
Activity: 20
Merit: 0
September 05, 2011, 07:36:12 PM
#18
But there will be 33% inflation next year. So inflation is dropping.
sr. member
Activity: 448
Merit: 251
Bitcoin
September 05, 2011, 07:31:31 PM
#17
Quote
2010: 100%
2011: 50%
So bitcoin had lets say 75% inflation from summer last year to summer this year, yet it managed to go from $0.06 to ~$10. Apparently inflation is not the most important factor.



It's adoption rate grew faster than 75%. ..  Then adoption rate was 3000% now it's 20% and inflation is 50%

We need to get more coins out to more people
sr. member
Activity: 350
Merit: 250
September 05, 2011, 07:19:43 PM
#16
This has nothing to do with the number of people buying bitcoins.

It has everything to do with their real value which is 4-7$ right now. The amount of power needed to generate them is their value.
This is their base value. Anything more would need a real economy behind bitcoin which is pretty much non-existent.

So to anyone complaining who hoarded their bitcoins and didn't buy anything with them: Its your fault and your fault alone.  Tongue

No. And really.. No.
aq
full member
Activity: 238
Merit: 100
September 05, 2011, 07:14:17 PM
#15
Quote
2010: 100%
2011: 50%
So bitcoin had lets say 75% inflation from summer last year to summer this year, yet it managed to go from $0.06 to ~$10. Apparently inflation is not the most important factor.
legendary
Activity: 3598
Merit: 2386
Viva Ut Vivas
sr. member
Activity: 266
Merit: 250
September 05, 2011, 07:04:03 PM
#13
[There is no incentive to use bitcoins for online transactions yet. Almost all of the BTC businesses have predecessors that use USD.

USD = bank accounts = real names and identities
hero member
Activity: 504
Merit: 500
September 05, 2011, 06:54:24 PM
#12
Except that Bitcoin is at a 50% inflation right now.

Gold is also a deflationary currency and yet its price is skyrocketing.

But if people were mining gold faster than people were buying it, it too would be losing value.
Where did you get that statistic?

Gold is about to explode. There are plenty of investors shorting gold right now.







https://goldsilver.com/news/fiat-currency-is-the-bubble-not-gold/
legendary
Activity: 1218
Merit: 1000
September 05, 2011, 06:53:35 PM
#11
Except that Bitcoin is at a 50% inflation right now.

Gold is also a deflationary currency and yet its price is skyrocketing.

But if people were mining gold faster than people were buying it, it too would be losing value.

That's a misconception of the market, actually most of the liberalism havoc is due to such "linear view" of "supply and demand".
Between supplies and demands there's speculation. Actually the gold will not be "skyrocketing" much longer as speculators by betting so much on gold's future are in fact removing value of it. You see... things have value based on their use, they're worthy or needed and cause demand, more demand = higher prices. By speculation, gold hasn't any demand on its main purpose, jewelery, as being so expensive it becomes a bad investment and ultimately a danger to its bearer.

The same went on with Bitcoin, by being so deflationary at such fast pace it literally broke all bitcoin-based businesses, what created less demand and speculators were just inflating a bubble of something themselves made worthless... just what they're doing to gold now and something else when the current gold bubble blasts.
sr. member
Activity: 448
Merit: 251
Bitcoin
September 05, 2011, 06:51:16 PM
#10
Here's the problem guys.. we're printing more bitcoins than Zimbabwe is printing their dollars.    This is going to continue to go down until next year when it get's cut to 25 bitcoins every 10 minutes...  even then it's still going to be highly inflationary.  

We need some venture capital firms lining up to work with bitcoin companies,  we need places to spend them.. we need more people using bitcoins.. not less people with more bitcoins.

In this case we need 100,000 people with 1 bitcoin each than 1 guy with 100,000 bitcoins.  

because currently we have the latter, and we need the prior.



legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1037
Trusted Bitcoiner
September 05, 2011, 06:50:37 PM
#9
BTC is losing value.... hmmm why is this.... hmmm.... could it be that their is more supply then demand??

SELL SELL SELL!

Why is BTC losing value?
in ten years the answer to this question will be simple .... Its the weekend, everyone is shopping!
legendary
Activity: 1666
Merit: 1057
Marketing manager - GO MP
September 05, 2011, 06:27:15 PM
#8
This has nothing to do with the number of people buying bitcoins.

It has everything to do with their real value which is 4-7$ right now. The amount of power needed to generate them is their value.
This is their base value. Anything more would need a real economy behind bitcoin which is pretty much non-existent.

So to anyone complaining who hoarded their bitcoins and didn't buy anything with them: Its your fault and your fault alone.  Tongue
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