Why BTC will never be over 30K - page 2.

HAARP

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Quote from: MiBambino on July 27, 2017, 05:14:20 AM

I've read a lot of articles about people claiming bitcoin will be worth millions in the future, for example John mcAfee recently said bitcoin will be 500K in 3 years.
Now, imagine if this was true, and it was in fact 500K/BTC. The total market cap would then be 10.500.000.000.000, or about 10 trillion dollars. This is an unbelievable and unachievable amount of money. Even if we ignore the market caps, imagine how many people would become rich? Millions would become millionairs, hundreds would become billionaires, all in a matter of 3 years. This would cripple the global economy as we know it.

My best guess is that, in 10 years, bitcoin might be around it's absolute peak of 30K, giving it a total market cap of about 630.000.000.000$, or 630 billion. The total market cap of cryptos would then be around 2 trillion if the some of the better alts gain more traction. I believe this is fairly realistic. This means BTC would have to rise with around 7 - 8$ a day.

Edited

Well, I'm a hard bitcoin supporter and early adopter, but your argument looked very valid to me. You're problably right about that bitcoin can't go those excessive prices. Nobody should expect that. $500,000 or $100,000 are really not logical prices

The reason, the market cap is not unlimitedly open to grow. There must be an upper bound in crypto market.

fabiorem

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10 trillion is completely possible, not in 3 years, like McAfee said, but in 10.

Marketcap for gold is 8 trillion, so yes, it is possible for bitcoin to reach 10 trillion in 10 years.

OP is a unbeliever.

MiBambino

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Quote from: audaciousbeing on July 27, 2017, 12:27:06 PM

Quote from: MiBambino on July 27, 2017, 05:14:20 AM

I've read a lot of articles about people claiming bitcoin will be worth millions in the future, for example John mcAfee recently said bitcoin will be 500K in 3 years.
Now, imagine if this was true, and it was in fact 500K/BTC. The total market cap would then be 10.500.000.000.000, or about 10 trillion dollars. This is an unbelievable and unachievable amount of money. Even if we ignore the market caps, imagine how many people would become rich? Millions would become millionairs, hundreds would become billionaires, all in a matter of 3 years. This would cripple the global economy as we know it.

My best guess is that, in 10 years, bitcoin might be around it's absolute peak of 30K, giving it a total market cap of about 630.000.000.000$, or 630 billion. The total market cap of cryptos would then be around 2 trillion if the some of the better alts gain more traction. I believe this is fairly realistic. This means BTC would have to rise with around 7 - 8$ a day.

Edited

If you are basing this on what McAfee said, then I would say you actually dignify him by creating a thread in his honour and based on your calculation I see it largely impossible for 500k to be achieved in 3 years maybe in the future when the whole countries in the world is being represented like we have in forex, but not in 2020 at all. However, the 30k is possible but at the same time not without its own challenges which I don't see not coming on a regular basis to swing the price backwards.

The mcAfee one is just one I read a few days ago, there's tonnes of articles, videos, blogs and such from people talking about a 7-digit bitcoin within this decade.

mol76

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Maybe 500k is impossible maybe not, but the truth is that even the most pessimistic forecasts speak of 10k in a few years and that's why it's worth investing ... long term of course.

HeRetiK

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Quote from: Syke on July 27, 2017, 02:32:32 PM

Quote from: MiBambino on July 27, 2017, 05:14:20 AM

My best guess is that, in 10 years, bitcoin might be around it's absolute peak of 30K

I would be fine with that in 10 years, but I don't see why the peak would be so soon. There's no reason for it to stop growing so soon.

I assume that should Bitcoin succeed and live to see another 10 years, it will simply keep growing indefinitely alone due to the fact that governmental fiat currencies will keep depreciating. At least until a better asset class comes along. Question being how much of said growth we'll see in our lifetime.

BitHodler

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Quote from: Syke on July 27, 2017, 02:32:32 PM

Quote from: MiBambino on July 27, 2017, 05:14:20 AM

My best guess is that, in 10 years, bitcoin might be around it's absolute peak of 30K

I would be fine with that in 10 years, but I don't see why the peak would be so soon. There's no reason for it to stop growing so soon.

It all depends on whether or not institutional investors will start to take Bitcoin seriously. If they even allocate 10% of their entire portfolio to Bitcoin, we'll cut through the $30,000 mark like a hot knife through butter.

That's why legalization is very important. If we see various Bitcoin related ETFs become reality somewhere in the next years, it will definitely help opening the doors for institutional investors.

Syke

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Quote from: MiBambino on July 27, 2017, 05:14:20 AM

My best guess is that, in 10 years, bitcoin might be around it's absolute peak of 30K

I would be fine with that in 10 years, but I don't see why the peak would be so soon. There's no reason for it to stop growing so soon.

Shtamm_oval

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Quote from: audaciousbeing on July 27, 2017, 12:27:06 PM

Quote from: MiBambino on July 27, 2017, 05:14:20 AM

I've read a lot of articles about people claiming bitcoin will be worth millions in the future, for example John mcAfee recently said bitcoin will be 500K in 3 years.
Now, imagine if this was true, and it was in fact 500K/BTC. The total market cap would then be 10.500.000.000.000, or about 10 trillion dollars. This is an unbelievable and unachievable amount of money. Even if we ignore the market caps, imagine how many people would become rich? Millions would become millionairs, hundreds would become billionaires, all in a matter of 3 years. This would cripple the global economy as we know it.

My best guess is that, in 10 years, bitcoin might be around it's absolute peak of 30K, giving it a total market cap of about 630.000.000.000$, or 630 billion. The total market cap of cryptos would then be around 2 trillion if the some of the better alts gain more traction. I believe this is fairly realistic. This means BTC would have to rise with around 7 - 8$ a day.

Edited

If you are basing this on what McAfee said, then I would say you actually dignify him by creating a thread in his honour and based on your calculation I see it largely impossible for 500k to be achieved in 3 years maybe in the future when the whole countries in the world is being represented like we have in forex, but not in 2020 at all. However, the 30k is possible but at the same time not without its own challenges which I don't see not coming on a regular basis to swing the price backwards.

I do not think that the price of bitcoin can ever reach such heights. Bitcoin will always remain an alternative currency. Even if many people know about it, this will not give a guarantee that everyone will use it.

audaciousbeing

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Quote from: MiBambino on July 27, 2017, 05:14:20 AM

I've read a lot of articles about people claiming bitcoin will be worth millions in the future, for example John mcAfee recently said bitcoin will be 500K in 3 years.
Now, imagine if this was true, and it was in fact 500K/BTC. The total market cap would then be 10.500.000.000.000, or about 10 trillion dollars. This is an unbelievable and unachievable amount of money. Even if we ignore the market caps, imagine how many people would become rich? Millions would become millionairs, hundreds would become billionaires, all in a matter of 3 years. This would cripple the global economy as we know it.

My best guess is that, in 10 years, bitcoin might be around it's absolute peak of 30K, giving it a total market cap of about 630.000.000.000$, or 630 billion. The total market cap of cryptos would then be around 2 trillion if the some of the better alts gain more traction. I believe this is fairly realistic. This means BTC would have to rise with around 7 - 8$ a day.

Edited

If you are basing this on what McAfee said, then I would say you actually dignify him by creating a thread in his honour and based on your calculation I see it largely impossible for 500k to be achieved in 3 years maybe in the future when the whole countries in the world is being represented like we have in forex, but not in 2020 at all. However, the 30k is possible but at the same time not without its own challenges which I don't see not coming on a regular basis to swing the price backwards.

HeRetiK

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With current USD valuations, 500k USD per BTC seem definitely out of range, unless the US get stricken by hyper-inflation. Either way... I don't know about you guys, but I would still consider a ten-fold growth of Bitcoin a definite win, even if it means watching McAfee eating his own dick.

European Central Bank

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op is also forgetting two other things - bitcoin deflation, fiat inflation.

even if it didn't gain in buying power, it's gonna reach 30k anyway assuming it stays alive and popular enough. when the block reward slows to a trickle all it has to do is exist to gain in value.

equator

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Quote from: Beerwizzard on July 27, 2017, 05:21:21 AM

500k per 1 btc realy seems unachievable but 30k seems realistic if bicoin would become a complete currency and would be accepted as a payment. No one knows when it happens. It may be 3 or more years but it is achievable.
P.S. One day 500$ per BTC seemed not realistic.

What you said is true that one day when the price of Bitcoin was 1$ or low that time 500$ price was very big and when it touched then next achievable target got it so what ever the high price Bitcoin shows it is true, so no one can correctly predict that which is the high limit of Bitcoin price. But like OP said if you make a small calculation then 30k price is achievable in 3 yrs.

The Sceptical Chymist

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A market cap in the trillions isn't unreasonable at all IMO. Look at the USD and other currencies, look at the market cap of the s&p 500, and whatever else. Is it going to happen quickly? Probably not. It all depends on how demand keeps up and how the governments emd up regulating it. Hell, I'd be very happy if bitcoin hit $30k in the next 5 years or so, never mind $500k.

HasHe

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Quote from: Beerwizzard on July 27, 2017, 05:21:21 AM

500k per 1 btc realy seems unachievable but 30k seems realistic if bicoin would become a complete currency and would be accepted as a payment. No one knows when it happens. It may be 3 or more years but it is achievable.
P.S. One day 500$ per BTC seemed not realistic.

Yes,500k is a pure speculation.I think the person who said this is very highly optimistic.But i think its far away from reality.But $30k seems achievable in the next ten years due to mass adoption of bitcoins and more countries coming forward to legalize it.But nothing could be said as sure.

European Central Bank

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and if all those 'millionaires' tried to become fiat millionaires only about 5% would achieve it before the price died.

the price is set by probably 0.1% of available coins that are on exchanges. that being the case then it is possible. it wouldn't require much actual expenditure in proportion to the market cap.

the question is how sustainable it would be. not at all right now.

deadsilent

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That's called marketing strategy. Ofcourse they will say that because they are also owners of bitcoin. Many have state their predictions that "bitcoin could go over $10k blah blah". That's very unrealistic to me. $30k is even more impossible to happen. But only time will tell if bitcoin could go that far or not. Who knows? After 5-10 years bitcoin maybe bitcoin could hit that price.

coinplus

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Quote from: MiBambino on July 27, 2017, 05:14:20 AM

Now, imagine if this was true, and it was in fact 500K/BTC. The total market cap would then be 10.500.000.000.000, or about 10 trillion dollars. This is an unbelievable and unachievable amount of money. Even if we ignore the market caps, imagine how many people would become rich? Millions would become millionairs, hundreds would become billionaires, all in a matter of 3 years. This would cripple the global economy as we know it.

when bitcoin was trading under $1 value, total market of one billion was unbelievable and unachievable amount of money. Nothing is unachievable and moreover marketcap is nothing but just a number as it does not denote the actual buying power.

Quote from: MiBambino on July 27, 2017, 05:14:20 AM

My best guess is that, in 10 years, bitcoin might be around it's absolute peak of 30K, giving it a total market cap of about 630.000.000.000$, or 630 billion. The total market cap of cryptos would then be around 2 trillion if the some of the better alts gain more traction. I believe this is fairly realistic. This means BTC would have to rise with around 7 - 8$ a day.

Why this alone seems realistic to you ? There will be no guarantee that millions of people will keep holding their bitcoins till they become millionaire because in past, people had sold their bitcoin when they just saw prices $10 or $50 and missed and regret when bitcoin was hitting $1200 in 2013. Hence no cripple will be possible afaik.

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Bitcoin is full of unpredictables happening at unexpected time, so price reaching $500k too has got possibilities. I believe in this, because regularly the price has been increasing along with more and more users entering the digital currency community. When the usage equals fiat, due to the limited mining of bitcoin the value goes high.

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Quote from: phr0stbyt3 on July 27, 2017, 07:46:53 AM

All the other speculation of 500k is just a newbie who doesn't know any thing about bitcoin and just because he knows he's famous he told some random numbers. 30k is still possible but that can take up to 10 years. In order ti achieve 30k bitcoin has to increase by 8$ per day that's never possible for bitcoin either the price increases by 500$ in one night or it increases daily by 100$ for few days anf stops. Bitcoin isn't like a stock it suddenly get's a high increase and decrease

I agree with you . Although the current increase in bitcoin prices is very high but surely there will be a time when bitcoin prices are declining. If you see the trend is bitcoin will always experience up and down. So the assumption of an increase may be only in the number of a few percent, but I do not want to predict because bitcoin prices always end up with a miracle. Sometimes a seemingly impossible pricing can even come true.

mangkucrypto

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many people waiting btc reach 30k but they don't think that this is a long journey for bitcoin itself. rather than to only waiting 30k, i think we can trying to make our bitcoin increase first so if the price is in 30k in next year or another years, we are ready to sell for getting profit. i don't know about marketcap, i only watching the price from the exchanges and i do trading like others.

btw, how can be John McAfee eating his own dick? lol Grin

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