Why christmas? | Bitcointalksearch.org

thirdprize

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Quote from: JimboToronto on December 15, 2020, 11:01:04 PM

The first big spike was nowhere near Christmas.

Omitting earlier spikes where it went from pennies to almost a dollar and back down to a dime, the first really big spike was in 2011 when it went from under a dollar in February to over $30 in June.

The next big spike was in early 2013 when it went from around $10 in late 2012 to $266 in early April.

Even the next big spike in late 2013 peaked in November and had dropped to less than half its value before Christmas.

Try again.

I meant the big one where it hit $1K. Not every spike, just the big ones.

thirdprize

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Quote from: philipma1957 on December 15, 2020, 05:03:47 PM

Quote from: thirdprize on December 15, 2020, 10:24:06 AM

And again it is the run up to christmas. You telling me it is just a coincidence?

well for USA players. Dec to Jan marks tax year .

So run up from 4k to 20 k in 2020 has happened. If you sell in Jan 2021 you dont have to file for a while say as late as oct 2022 for the year 2021.

so a december runup and a jan slump can happen due to big players.

along with the covid and the larger government spending due to covid.

No, this was happening well before anyone ever thought you may have to pay tax on your BTC.

hulla

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Quote from: arwin100 on December 17, 2020, 09:21:24 AM

Quote from: hossamdz on December 17, 2020, 09:04:17 AM

Quote from: hulla on December 17, 2020, 07:44:07 AM

Quote from: wheelz1200 on December 15, 2020, 06:56:14 PM

Quote from: thirdprize on January 09, 2017, 09:54:44 AM

The first big spike was close to xmas/new year and the recent spike was the same. Discuss? It certainly isn't people doing their xmas shopping with bitcoin. Is it publicity related? Is it silk road (or equivalent) related? Is it Chinese money giving customs related?

I think its a mere coincidence of timing. Bitcoin isn't seasonal nor are these markets, so rationally you have to just think its a coincidence. It is strikingly odd though that this is a great time of year to buy(sell Wink

) crypto.

You are wrong Bitcoin is seasonal, so what happens now is never a mere coincidence and this is what always happens to the Bitcoin market during the Christmas season of the year Bitcoin had it halving. Meanwhile, a market correction will also happen a few hours before Christmas so buying now if you're not a day trade is not advisable.

I agree , also exactly like we saw in 2017 summer were bitcoin dump massively , lot of whales sold their earning to enjoy a happy holiday .
the rest of fish ( newbie traders ) got stuck with the market since then and that can happen again this year ..

That's why we need to be prepared for the upcoming possibilities so that we will not get stuck again the same on what happen on the years 2017-2018. And we need to be vigilant even though the market doing good since we still need to rely on history and but hoping that the same scenario will not come and this year bitcoin will prosper to gather more huge pump since I believe if bitcoin can maintain it's current price until next year provably we will get another big adoption.

Every investor needs to be prepared for the possibility that may arise but I see the bull run market trend to continue till next year. However, the market correction will happen during the Christmas season which I believe is the last chance for investors to join the uptrend/ATH wagon until it the enormous market correction season.

adaseb

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From my experience bitcoin usually has a bullish time in the months of Nov and Dec. Usually January happens to be a bearish month. The reason why is because people who made lots of capital gain profits are holding till New Years even so they can sell and realise profits in the new year.

The only time when Nov-Dec weren't bullish is 2018. And I think its because many people assumed that $6K support would hold and in Nov 2018, which is a time when bitcoin usually rallies, would do so. So they went into overlevereged positions and ended up crashing bitcoin all the way too $3K. I also think that the reason why it stops running on Dec 17th is because most funds managers just take time off and spend with family and they are done trading for the remainder of the year. Usually between Christmas Day and New Years there is very little volatility going on. Especially with stocks but some with crypto.

STT

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Speaking of China, I'll believe BTC replaces gold when the Chinese people and the central bank and similar other large entities then hold BTC as a global reserve to trade. At the moment China has been buying gold and the largest producer of gold for decades in knowledge they need to buy so much they would spike the price so they distribute buying over time. If somehow they see success of BTC and do similar with crypto then sure we can compare otherwise they are different and viewed differently by the largest buyers due to one being held physically and the other is security token with distributed confirmation required.

Other events besides a Christian festival and holidays to match price action has been a recent FED meeting for long term policy on dollar and QE programs. Also even bigger I think is the fiscal budget of USA coming to a likely large spending program in light of their ongoing struggles and reduced employment especially in service industry, dollar weaker helps BTC and thats quite simple. That idea is far greater then one national holiday as Dollar is the global reserve, not gold not anything else hence if its diluted we see higher prices appear and BTC is hot stock right now.

arwin100

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Quote from: hossamdz on December 17, 2020, 09:04:17 AM

Quote from: hulla on December 17, 2020, 07:44:07 AM

Quote from: wheelz1200 on December 15, 2020, 06:56:14 PM

Quote from: thirdprize on January 09, 2017, 09:54:44 AM

The first big spike was close to xmas/new year and the recent spike was the same. Discuss? It certainly isn't people doing their xmas shopping with bitcoin. Is it publicity related? Is it silk road (or equivalent) related? Is it Chinese money giving customs related?

I think its a mere coincidence of timing. Bitcoin isn't seasonal nor are these markets, so rationally you have to just think its a coincidence. It is strikingly odd though that this is a great time of year to buy(sell Wink

) crypto.

You are wrong Bitcoin is seasonal, so what happens now is never a mere coincidence and this is what always happens to the Bitcoin market during the Christmas season of the year Bitcoin had it halving. Meanwhile, a market correction will also happen a few hours before Christmas so buying now if you're not a day trade is not advisable.

I agree , also exactly like we saw in 2017 summer were bitcoin dump massively , lot of whales sold their earning to enjoy a happy holiday .
the rest of fish ( newbie traders ) got stuck with the market since then and that can happen again this year ..

That's why we need to be prepared for the upcoming possibilities so that we will not get stuck again the same on what happen on year 2017-2018. And we need to be vigilant even though the market doing good since we still need to rely on history and but hoping that the same scenario will not come and this year bitcoin will prosper to gather more huge pump since I believe if bitcoin can maintain it's current price until next year provably we will get another big adoption.

stompix

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Quote from: thirdprize on January 09, 2017, 09:54:44 AM

The first big spike was close to xmas/new year and the recent spike was the same. Discuss?

JimboToronto already told you but it seems people are still focusing on just one spike and reading only the OP
Before the 2017 event, there were many others, think a bit, how did the price arrive at that point in the first place?
Read this:
https://cointelegraph.com/news/a-dazzling-history-of-bitcoins-ups-and-downs

Quote from: BitcoinBarrel on January 09, 2017, 10:02:05 AM

I also think it's strange that the price hike happened during Christmas with very little media coverage of the Rally.

It happened then and it happens now:

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/bitcoin-hits-record-20000
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/12/16/investing/bitcoin-price-milestone/index.html
https://www.forbes.com/sites/billybambrough/2020/12/16/bitcoin-just-smashed-through-20000-whats-next/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/all-aboard-the-billionaires-bitcoin-bandwagon/2020/12/16/528ff8fc-3fc9-11eb-b58b-1623f6267960_story.html
https://www.wsj.com/articles/bitcoin-climbs-above-20-000-to-record-11608130696?mod=searchresults_pos2&page=1

The Guardian even has live coverage:
https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2020/dec/17/bitcoin-shares-pound-markets-bank-of-england-us-stimulus-jobless-rally-business-live
But you actually have to read newspapers to see if newspapers talk about it.

As for the Chinese conspiracy, no, just no, not China again!!! Not again!!!!

hossamdz

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Quote from: hulla on December 17, 2020, 07:44:07 AM

Quote from: wheelz1200 on December 15, 2020, 06:56:14 PM

Quote from: thirdprize on January 09, 2017, 09:54:44 AM

The first big spike was close to xmas/new year and the recent spike was the same. Discuss? It certainly isn't people doing their xmas shopping with bitcoin. Is it publicity related? Is it silk road (or equivalent) related? Is it Chinese money giving customs related?

I think its a mere coincidence of timing. Bitcoin isn't seasonal nor are these markets, so rationally you have to just think its a coincidence. It is strikingly odd though that this is a great time of year to buy(sell Wink

) crypto.

You are wrong Bitcoin is seasonal, so what happens now is never a mere coincidence and this is what always happens to the Bitcoin market during the Christmas season of the year Bitcoin had it halving. Meanwhile, a market correction will also happen a few hours before Christmas so buying now if you're not a day trade is not advisable.

I agree , also exactly like we saw in 2017 summer were bitcoin dump massively , lot of whales sold their earning to enjoy a happy holiday .
the rest of fish ( newbie traders ) got stuck with the market since then and that can happen again this year ..

hulla

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Quote from: wheelz1200 on December 15, 2020, 06:56:14 PM

Quote from: thirdprize on January 09, 2017, 09:54:44 AM

The first big spike was close to xmas/new year and the recent spike was the same. Discuss? It certainly isn't people doing their xmas shopping with bitcoin. Is it publicity related? Is it silk road (or equivalent) related? Is it Chinese money giving customs related?

I think its a mere coincidence of timing. Bitcoin isn't seasonal nor are these markets, so rationally you have to just think its a coincidence. It is strikingly odd though that this is a great time of year to buy(sell Wink

) crypto.

You are wrong Bitcoin is seasonal, so what happens now is never a mere coincidence and this is what always happens to the Bitcoin market during the Christmas season of the year Bitcoin had it halving. Meanwhile, a market correction will also happen a few hours before Christmas so buying now if you're not a day trade is not advisable.

el kaka22

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Maybe related to bonus somehow? Usually there is a break before Christmas and you go back to work after Christmas, there are even some companies that gives a break at 23rd of December and starts back work on 2nd of January (even though number of these gets lower and lower everyday with probably only few family owned business' that does this nowadays) which means the bonus people get before the year ends could be spent on this.

Not saying they all do it, obviously most of them don't do it, but it is not your salary, you live by your salary, so this is an extra and non-calculated amount of money and you will definitely not spend that right away, or if you do spend it that is a wrong move, which means everyone will use that to invest into something which means some people will prefer bitcoin.

JimboToronto

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You're never too old to think young.

The first big spike was nowhere near Christmas.

Omitting earlier spikes where it went from pennies to almost a dollar and back down to a dime, the first really big spike was in 2011 when it went from under a dollar in February to over $30 in June.

The next big spike was in early 2013 when it went from around $10 in late 2012 to $266 in early April.

Even the next big spike in late 2013 peaked in November and had dropped to less than half its value before Christmas.

Try again.

wheelz1200

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Quote from: thirdprize on January 09, 2017, 09:54:44 AM

The first big spike was close to xmas/new year and the recent spike was the same. Discuss? It certainly isn't people doing their xmas shopping with bitcoin. Is it publicity related? Is it silk road (or equivalent) related? Is it Chinese money giving customs related?

I think its a mere coincidence of timing. Bitcoin isn't seasonal nor are these markets, so rationally you have to just think its a coincidence. It is strikingly odd though that this is a great time of year to buy(sell Wink

) crypto.

STT

legendary

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Its actually more to do with tax law and end of year accounting in various countries I think. Also a general mood is determined mostly by the northern hemisphere and the seasons there, it doesn't have to run up into xmas but the end of 2020 is probably registering more universally then religious holidays not celebrated across the world though the main markets closed on certain days will have an effect, that isn't that many actual days.

philipma1957

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Quote from: thirdprize on December 15, 2020, 10:24:06 AM

And again it is the run up to christmas. You telling me it is just a coincidence?

well for USA players. Dec to Jan marks tax year .

So run up from 4k to 20 k in 2020 has happened. If you sell in Jan 2021 you dont have to file for a while say as late as oct 2022 for the year 2021.

so a december runup and a jan slump can happen due to big players.

along with the covid and the larger government spending due to covid.

Fortify

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It's better not to read two much into it, you cannot really make a long term comparison based on only two data points - it could be a pattern or it could be totally random coincidence. There is a lot of money floating around right now because many governments around the world are trying to stave off a recession which would be very damaging and that money ends up pouring into other assets - gold, property, stocks and now cryptocurrency.

Jating

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Quote from: thirdprize on December 15, 2020, 10:24:06 AM

And again it is the run up to christmas. You telling me it is just a coincidence?

Well I have my own theory as to why, first perhaps people how still have their jobs as of today will have their bonuses check obviously and might be putting aside a portion as an investment in BTC. Second, whales just pumping it up, and playing the market every season to make more money in this holiday.

But I would say though that it could be coincidence as well, we've been saying this as well every year, that the Chinese Lunar Year will also bring more money, but I have seen that it is not the case during 2018-19, maybe it was just we went on a bear market.

ningrum

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Quote from: thirdprize on January 09, 2017, 09:54:44 AM

The first big spike was close to xmas/new year and the recent spike was the same. Discuss? It certainly isn't people doing their xmas shopping with bitcoin. Is it publicity related? Is it silk road (or equivalent) related? Is it Chinese money giving customs related?

ahead of Christmas there is usually a dump, but this year there is something different, because of the pandemic, many countries still choose to lock down, and this is a positive side for investors, that they will not withdraw money on a large scale, and this also happens in cryptocurrencies, I hope Bitcoin reaches $ 25k this year

DeathAngel

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It’s just natural progression after the block reward halving. If something is useful & in demand if you literally half the supply of it (newly mined coins) then there are less coins available so the price goes up. Simple really & that’s what’s happening now. It just takes a while for the coins available on exchanges to dry up. Also less people sre selling because they know we’re at the start of a bull run.

thirdprize

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And again it is the run up to christmas. You telling me it is just a coincidence?

thirdprize

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Ah, here is a thread I started last year asking why BTC always went up around xmas time. I stand by my assertions.

Topic: Why christmas? (Read 1359 times)