Topic: Why do we need a bull market blow off top ? (Read 312 times)

2017 had a bigger exit. because those that bought into the 2013's $1.2k ATH, then waited 3-4 years at sub $900 amounts. feeling like they were at a constant loss for 3-4 years. then it sprung upto 2017's $20k ATH, so they exited thinking it was their lucky day, never to re-occur again. they were happy to leave with an 16x (1600%) for 4 year wait.

the 2017 $20k ATH to 2020 $65k was only a 3.25x and so people were not as jumpy about exiting.
those that bought at 2017's ATH want atleast a 5x so $100k minimum
there is also a bunch that bought in at the 2018 $4k YL (year low) want to get out with a 20x(2000%) investment for 3-4 years. so wanting $80-$100k

so thats why the $100k is a popular rounded number alot of people are collectively chanting

Well, people would always choose the quicker profit than the slow one that is going to take them so many months for them to get there. If the price should go up quickly it would favor a lot of day traders/short term traders who are looking for profit on a daily. Imagine trading in a day and the market suddenly starts going up in a very huge way and you make good profit? You would be very happy. The only people who wouldn’t mind if the price should taken long before reaching that high are those people who are buying to HODL for a long term. If it takes six to eight months they wouldn’t care that much.

The reason people are looking for the price to blow up is just to make some profits but I do think it's near Christmas and many of them would be taking out money to celebrate the festivals therefore the up and down of the price chart is quite viable. Now let's talk about how we can still earn money through cryptocurrencies :
1. Trading
Day trading is still beneficial
2. Long term holding
These are the few things that we can still do and the scenario that you described is something that is definitely not possible since bitcoins at the end of the day cannot really run around in boundaries, the limited supply makes the final price extremely unpredictable and at the same time with the current circumstances, I do think that it's highly unlikely that something like this is gonna happen.

i have a hoard since 2012 meaning my gains from ~$6/coin are like 10,000x.
what you learn is hoarders that actually hold long term dont get excited about daily prices. they stop checking after a while as they have no intension to sell any time soon so they dont care about the immediate price.

im in profit no matter what happens to the price. so the excitement of daily/monthly prices is not there anymore.

its like pension pots. people dont check the balance of their pension holdings daily. weekly.

its the short term investors hoping and praying to get out soon that get emotional, always talking about how they want the price to double within a few weeks or months.

when you spot people shouting out how they want to see the price attain XXX by spring 2022 what they are actually saying is "i hope to exit and escape bitcoin in spring 2022 and to get back to fiat holding lots of profit"

they are not interested in hoarding or holding. they just want quick profits. they care more about getting FIAT to then be rich in FIAT.

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when i know the price has attained say $65k+ before. and the current price is $30k-$50k. im not thinking i hope it gets above $65k again. instead i KNOW eventually it will attain more then $65k again. so for now i just see the $30k-$50k as good investment discount time to buy more while its below a future value. so i can add more for my future retirement hoard knowing it will reap its rewards by the time i decide its time to retire(not any time soon)

I usually think those looking to exit either bought at the floor or close to it (having intended to do so) so those exiting would have been those buying March 2020. OR those who've been through a second cycle, meaning those who bought close to 2017 top.

I have to say though, haven't personally come into contact with anyone who exited this year, unlike in 2017 when I counted a handful. Any exit now or running up to $100k (if it happens) would probably be out of reluctance.

The advantage is on us, the holders and early buyers because we're already in profit and we don't mind selling. That's true about the market maintaining its control.
We won't see a forever increase if there's no correction. But if we see such, we should see the control with it and that's a positive outlook if you're optimistic with that behavior of the market.

This is completely true, things changed for Bitcoin only after 2017 when it entered the mainstream media and social networks. Until then, even those who were familiar with how things worked were quite reserved about how much Bitcoin was actually worth, not only in terms of value in fiat but also asset that could protect them from ever-present inflation.

Of course, things changed even more when big investors started investing in Bitcoin, which encouraged their followers to do the same. And since they promote "buy dips, and hold strategy" people accept that and the price of Bitcoin is relatively stable despite the fact that there will always be people who are not happy with the current situation.

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Maybe I mispronounced, I wanted to say that people usually have some sort of exit point and that many would sell for $100k, while some others who invested later might wait for $120k. Greed can often be expensive in the end, so while people always complain that they could have profited more, someone who invested in the time around the last halving (around $7000) and sold for around $100k should not be unhappy that they earned x15 more than invested.


Do you think that there are not enough smart people who know how to judge when is the right time to sell? I would not agree with that, because I know that there are such people - so although I am not an expert, I can say that I sold part of the BTC at the last ATH close to $70k, just enough to afford a pleasant Christmas and New Year holidays. I consider it a smart move that I did not wait for December, but that the right time was November, which turned out to be correct.

Profits and sentiments.

People are taking profit when they feel that they needed too thus, the bull market stops and it is going to the other side. There is something that we call as psychological resistance where investors think that this price is the resistance therefore they will sell their holdings at that price. In this case, the psychological resistance is $70,000 but it seems that investors took profit too early and it only reach $69,000 as the ATH.

Sentiments is also one because we know that crypto markets are heavily driven by emotions, by sentiments of these investors. If we see a very bad news, this can also be a reason for the market to go down and an opposite scenario when we see a good news.

With regards to Bitcoin staying to a price range, I don't think that this is possible because not even stock market or any market has this kind of thing. Even other markets have bull and bear market and so is crypto market. No bear market seems impossible because there will be a time that investors will be in absolute fear therefore, they will sell their holdings.

IMO its still possible to get profit from BTC without even if it didnt hit 100k. On 20 Dec 2021, Bitcoin went down to 45k and now after 6 days its sitting at 50k. So there is still margin of earning profit if you keep an eye on bitcoin price. You need to be brave to invest when everyone running away from buying.

Of course, it would be good since everyone seems to benefit from it instead of a sudden pump which will gonna make some other investors fall on their knees and start to sell their BTC which they were planning to hold until next halving. Because as soon as they see the price, most likely they gonna temp to sell it as they watch everyone sell their BTC as well. Small movement of the price is preferable to seeing it pump and crashing afterward.

only one thing is for sure, wherein manipulators wants to see the price in the very dip level reason it always plunges.  Indeed they're the common reason why its always happened ever since before.. That why weak hands always going crazy as well.. Lol  well that's what it is mate so accept the fact. The cheaper the price the higher chance of good return.  

Well, basically because a lot of people are very optimistic and rushing to cash out there Btc holdings. While the others are only happy to see Bitcoin to be finally in a 6 digits figure.
The only thing that most of these types of people doesn't know is that, If Bitcoin will have another huge rise It could end up in a worst dump in the history of cryptocurrency.
Another thing that they don't know is that, Btc doesn't keep rising, corrections and bearish run is a sign of a healthy market, that a lot of people are actually using it or constantly trading the currency. The recover is more of a significant sign of a healthy market.
We all want profit, but let's just be patient with what we have invested.
 

Many people buy bitcoin to hold it, but do these people know to what price they will hold it? For example, a person who bought bitcoin at 3000 set himself the goal of selling it at a price of 20,000. His goal has been achieved, but now he is probably sorry that he did not sell it at 60k. But those who are now buy for 50k, at a price of 100k or 150k, received only x2-x3 from their investments, that is, they will not receive such a big profit. They need to wait for the bitcoin price to fall and only buying on the fall can you expect a good profit in the future.

How will people know that bitcoin has reached its peak ?  Some people think 100,000$ will be peak and exit. They will regret if they see bitcoin going up to 120,000$ or more. Many will not exit at 135,000$ thinking it will go to 150,000$.

The problem with blow off top is that no one will be able to catch the top. Some will exit early and others will be stuck at high.

Very well said. Now Bitcoin is a tough bone to crack and I firmly believe that in coming months and years we will not see the kind of volatility we had experienced back in 2017 and 2018. The reasons are simple but logical, The marketcap is 4X compared to 2018 and huge institutional support and tangible progress towards mass adoption.

The fact is that as in the two previous cycles there was a blow off top, the predictive models expected the same for this date already. What happens is that the regularities serve more to understand the past than to predict the future and not because there was a blow off top in the previous two cycles there has to be this one.


It can be like that or not. We are entering uncharted territory and we don't know if the price is going to do that or go 4 years without going above $70K, although I think those of us who are in this see that in the long term the price of Bitcoin will continue to rise, both because of its intrinsic properties and the devaluation of fiat currencies.

Some people are more greedy than others.Some people want fast and big profits now.
Other people want slow,steady and predictable profits,which are happening in a long time frame.
Nobody is saying that "we need" the Bitcoin price to hit a big ATH.If it happens,that would be great,but it won't be the end of the world,if Bitcoin never hits a price above 100K USD.
There's no sense of urgency for Bitcoin to hit a certain price level.
There's no drama,if the Bitcoin price drops severely back to 30K USD,because there will always be the possibility for the Bitcoin price to recover and hit a new ATH.

A correction would give more strength to the market in the long run to survive and grow. Seeing bitcoin pump with a huge percentage in just a short period of time is not healthy for me without a correction it may look like a bubble where it will pump and will die afterward. Some anti bitcoin call the success of bitcoin a bubble, but they were proven wrong many times because everytime bitcoin collapse, it's ready to recover and even break its ATH.

Price pump so high because it's overvalued, and the main reason is the hype during the bull run, so once an asset is overvalued it's normally corrected so the market will be stable.

Let's get one thing clear. The "top" in the sense of a bubble's top similar to 2017 is not any arbitrary price that is higher than the current price. You can't just multiply the current price by 2 and call that similar to 2017 either. Otherwise $6k was also double of $3k or $12k was double of $6k and so on and none of them were like 2017 and didn't cause a "bear market".

The "top" that can be called a bubble that would lead to a long bear market and a similar 80% to 85% crash can only happen if the price has gone up SIGNIFICANTLY in a SHORT TIME.
That means a similar size as 2015 to 2017 rise ($150 to $20,000) in the same time frame. That means reaching above $400k and anything below that is small rises leading to that bubble peak. And none of those price levels can repeat the bear market of 2018.

How about people who bought at $10k-$20k and still holding until now?

I am sure they have a big smile seeing the price now is back to $50k

But I am pretty sure that people who have bitcoin, no matter how much the price they get, will want to see bitcoin will be at more than $100k so they will hold for more. I can not imagine what holders from a long time ago feel when they see the price now hahaha because they do not need to sell many bitcoins and only need to sell for 1 bitcoin to get their initial money plus they will get a huge profit.