Dear all
I read quite some speculations here on why the MtGox rate is behaving the way it is. I am still puzzled and would appreciate clarification. Lets assume the following, please correct me where I am wrong:
1) No noticable amounts of fiat are coming out of gox (except for maybe Japanese Yen, which for most of us is meaningless) and even if there would be money coming out, at the current rate it doesnt make sense to sell BTC and cash out.
2) No BTC are coming out but there are promises of this happening very soon. These promises are thought to be far more likely than promises of fiat withdrawals working.
Both 1) and 2) should lead to BTC/USD rates shooting up (not down!). A similar reasoning was making sense in the past ((almost)no fiat getting out of gox) which is why the rate at MtGox was always quite a bit higher than at other exchanges. Now with the recent development this rate should have *increased* and not decreased even modestly. So why is this happening?
Looking for answers I would like to rule out that
a) MtGox is trying to rip everybody off in the most obvious way - there were still reports of Mark going to his office a few days ago, if he just wanted to run away with our money he could have done that long ago and have a happy rest of his life in some Cuban village.
b) People that trade noticeable amounts of BTC (and thus have a noticable influence on the market) are plain stupid and acting in panic without thinking what is happening.
...I just dont see the logic behind this but still I dont believe in conspiracy theories or stupidity alone...
Cheers,
Holle
Topic: Why do you panic sell into MtGox manipulation? - page 3. (Read 5384 times)
Gox needs to be completely dropped at this point. Problem is, if Gox resumes BTC withdrawals I am afraid the rush of cheap coins will crash other markets.
But at the same time you cant prevent people on Gox from withdrawing their coins, unless, they would allow only fiat withdrawal.
But at this point I think it is safe to assume that Gox is fiat insolvent anyway.
The fact that they moved to a "mailbox/virtual office" tells me they can't afford actual office space and possibly have less employees now.
But at the same time you cant prevent people on Gox from withdrawing their coins, unless, they would allow only fiat withdrawal.
But at this point I think it is safe to assume that Gox is fiat insolvent anyway.
The fact that they moved to a "mailbox/virtual office" tells me they can't afford actual office space and possibly have less employees now.
IF I had coins in Magic The Gathering Online Exchange...
I would have sold them all the day they announced their idiot shot software can't handle malleability and put in buy orders at $1 to $100/coin since they will hit that and hopefully I could get back 1000's of BTC. Either way, I would have considered any funds in M.T.G.O.X. lost.
I would have sold them all the day they announced their idiot shot software can't handle malleability and put in buy orders at $1 to $100/coin since they will hit that and hopefully I could get back 1000's of BTC. Either way, I would have considered any funds in M.T.G.O.X. lost.
As I posted before, in Mark's shoes, I would say NOTHING. "Confidential" Let everyone speculate and drive the price down to $1. Spend $40,000 if people were dumb enough to sell me BTC for $1 and pay everyone back the 40,000 BTC that he was robbed. While everyone piled up Mt GOx USD balances I would begin buying BTC and freeze USD withdrawals, all fiat withdrawals.
Then the only way to get your money out would be to buy BTC with your locked up USD, on a limited basis of course. The buy pressure would be massive and drive the price back to the +200 rate it was before so whats that about a peak of $800? At least with the coins I have, I am hoping that's what he does
Then the only way to get your money out would be to buy BTC with your locked up USD, on a limited basis of course. The buy pressure would be massive and drive the price back to the +200 rate it was before so whats that about a peak of $800? At least with the coins I have, I am hoping that's what he does
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Just a question that i would like to have some people that do this answer. We all know MtGox is trying to crash the bitcoin value trying to save their own asses. At the time of writing the difference between Gox and other exchanges is 440 USD ( 73% under other exchanges ).
My question is, why do you go with that exchange, panic sell your bitcoins for fiat that you will most likely never get back anyway, the chances of getting bitcoins out are a bit higher i think, but still extremely low.
My question is, why do you go with that exchange, panic sell your bitcoins for fiat that you will most likely never get back anyway, the chances of getting bitcoins out are a bit higher i think, but still extremely low.
Panic sellers are immune to logic. There is no explanation for the behaviour other than they panic a lot
.
Prices are that low for a good reason. People evaluate that they have 20% chances to recover anything from MtGox.
Right now the only way out is through Fiat withdrawals.
Options are:
1) You get 30% of your money now (by selling BTC at 30% of its price and withdrawing the FIAT)
2) You keep your BTC and you have 80% chances to never see it again.
As news develop, if MtGox keep providing more evidence that it is going bankrupt (those shady excuses of moving to a different building, etc.), chances of getting anything out of MtGox will get lower, then people will settle for the first option, even if that means to get only 10% of their BTC.
For people trying to speculate buying cheap BTC by sending real FIAT into MtGox account, they need to understand that you are buying into the final stages of a dying company, and that your chances of getting any of the cheap BTC out of Gox are extremely low. It might look nice to have an account with lots of BTC but that is only a fake account. Those BTC are not real, those are just numbers that MtGox is putting there. Nobody knows how many BTC MtGox still has. Very likely they are transferring everything out there right now.
Libitum
Right now the only way out is through Fiat withdrawals.
Options are:
1) You get 30% of your money now (by selling BTC at 30% of its price and withdrawing the FIAT)
2) You keep your BTC and you have 80% chances to never see it again.
As news develop, if MtGox keep providing more evidence that it is going bankrupt (those shady excuses of moving to a different building, etc.), chances of getting anything out of MtGox will get lower, then people will settle for the first option, even if that means to get only 10% of their BTC.
For people trying to speculate buying cheap BTC by sending real FIAT into MtGox account, they need to understand that you are buying into the final stages of a dying company, and that your chances of getting any of the cheap BTC out of Gox are extremely low. It might look nice to have an account with lots of BTC but that is only a fake account. Those BTC are not real, those are just numbers that MtGox is putting there. Nobody knows how many BTC MtGox still has. Very likely they are transferring everything out there right now.
Libitum
If you want to get out ASAP most people don't care about the circumstances
Quote
- It hurts your portfolio.
I'd love to have some insight into why people do this.
I'd love to have some insight into why people do this.
How does it hurt your portfolio to trade BTC over there if you can end up with more BTC than you started with? If they enable withdrawls, then you will end up with more money, which is a better portfolio.
You are the same type of person who was asking why people were "panic selling" on Gox at 450. If you did that and bought back now, you would end up with 3x as many bitcoins.
Google Translation, retouched by me.
It is a drying operation of the BTC in the hands of customers Gox.
It is as if to catch fish rather than cast their nets, dryng the lake, that is: separating Gox from the outside bitcoin world.
The goal is to get as many BTC as possible, fast.
Using it, after, for attacking other exchanges like if it were ammunition. All for keeping low the price of Bitcoin.
Is an operation of big business against the bitcoin world not to allowing their market becomes large. They don't want serious competitors for fiat currencies.
And the worst is that they have succeeded. They have most of the currency mass of bitcoin in your hands, and with that will always control the price.
The reaction should come from developers, changing something in the protocol, so that the suddenly volume surges were not allowed in the normal functioning of a market. It is the mark of the manipulation.
But with Karpeles (probably bribed) inserted in the foundation we have the enemy at home.
That's a problem now, but another background key is also not have understood what is bitcoin conceived. Not to speculate on, but to save it or spend it creating an alternative market.
Now inexperienced traders lose to the Sharks authentic.
It is a drying operation of the BTC in the hands of customers Gox.
It is as if to catch fish rather than cast their nets, dryng the lake, that is: separating Gox from the outside bitcoin world.
The goal is to get as many BTC as possible, fast.
Using it, after, for attacking other exchanges like if it were ammunition. All for keeping low the price of Bitcoin.
Is an operation of big business against the bitcoin world not to allowing their market becomes large. They don't want serious competitors for fiat currencies.
And the worst is that they have succeeded. They have most of the currency mass of bitcoin in your hands, and with that will always control the price.
The reaction should come from developers, changing something in the protocol, so that the suddenly volume surges were not allowed in the normal functioning of a market. It is the mark of the manipulation.
But with Karpeles (probably bribed) inserted in the foundation we have the enemy at home.
That's a problem now, but another background key is also not have understood what is bitcoin conceived. Not to speculate on, but to save it or spend it creating an alternative market.
Now inexperienced traders lose to the Sharks authentic.
This is probably in preparation for bankruptcy, Gox will liquidate all holdings in FIAT.
If Gox is bankrupt it won't matter whether you're holding Bitcoins or Fiat. You'll get neither.
There's completely no rational reason whatsoever to not to do anything but buy as many Bitcoins as you can at these prices on Gox.
But the market aint rational (that's why there's so much money to be made for the contrarians). If anyone doubts that try to rationalize a $134.10 Gox price.
This is probably in preparation for bankruptcy, Gox will liquidate all holdings in FIAT.
Gox is selling the cheap bitcoin to other exchanges.
Most traders who are panicking aren't that intelligent.
Most traders who are panicking aren't that intelligent.
The people who are panicking right now are the ones that will be complaining about how such a small amount of people own such a large amount of bitcoins.
I appreciate the cheap coins though.
I appreciate the cheap coins though.
Just a question that i would like to have some people that do this answer. We all know MtGox is trying to crash the bitcoin value trying to save their own asses. At the time of writing the difference between Gox and other exchanges is 440 USD ( 73% under other exchanges ).
My question is, why do you go with that exchange, panic sell your bitcoins for fiat that you will most likely never get back anyway, the chances of getting bitcoins out are a bit higher i think, but still extremely low. The only reason MtGox is manipulating their market is so that a massive amount of people will open up new accounts and dump loads of fiat on their bank account to buy cheap bitcoins, then they will open up the exchange again and the value will bounce back and voila, they just made a lot of money out of a manifactured panic.
Why would you sell your coins at a 73% discount to somebody? Why would you knowingly help them achieve panic?
Maybe it's just that you're trying to make a quick profit yourself somehow?
- It hurts your portfolio.
- It hurts the bitcoin economy/trust in general.
I'd love to have some insight into why people do this.
My question is, why do you go with that exchange, panic sell your bitcoins for fiat that you will most likely never get back anyway, the chances of getting bitcoins out are a bit higher i think, but still extremely low. The only reason MtGox is manipulating their market is so that a massive amount of people will open up new accounts and dump loads of fiat on their bank account to buy cheap bitcoins, then they will open up the exchange again and the value will bounce back and voila, they just made a lot of money out of a manifactured panic.
Why would you sell your coins at a 73% discount to somebody? Why would you knowingly help them achieve panic?
Maybe it's just that you're trying to make a quick profit yourself somehow?
- It hurts your portfolio.
- It hurts the bitcoin economy/trust in general.
I'd love to have some insight into why people do this.
panic doesn't cause people to make rational decisions
Please explain how this is rational! If Gox goes bust, chances are both MtGoxUSD and MtGoxBTC and whatever is worthless. If Bitcoin withdrawal does resume, you are far better off with Bitcoin.
EDIT: I assume MtGox has other liabilities that are senior to deposits.
Yes when people go panic, they will think of nothing but sell.
Now MtGox must be sitting there laughing loudly with Frappuccino.
Now MtGox must be sitting there laughing loudly with Frappuccino.
You dont panic sell. Guess we're in the middle of deleveraging from gox instead of following it down.
As a community though i think we should all help out those who lost with gox somehow.
Make a charity coin or something premine it and donate funds to those who lost
As a community though i think we should all help out those who lost with gox somehow.
Make a charity coin or something premine it and donate funds to those who lost
Just a question that i would like to have some people that do this answer. We all know MtGox is trying to crash the bitcoin value trying to save their own asses. At the time of writing the difference between Gox and other exchanges is 440 USD ( 73% under other exchanges ).
My question is, why do you go with that exchange, panic sell your bitcoins for fiat that you will most likely never get back anyway, the chances of getting bitcoins out are a bit higher i think, but still extremely low. The only reason MtGox is manipulating their market is so that a massive amount of people will open up new accounts and dump loads of fiat on their bank account to buy cheap bitcoins, then they will open up the exchange again and the value will bounce back and voila, they just made a lot of money out of a manifactured panic.
Why would you sell your coins at a 73% discount to somebody? Why would you knowingly help them achieve panic?
Maybe it's just that you're trying to make a quick profit yourself somehow?
- It hurts your portfolio.
- It hurts the bitcoin economy/trust in general.
I'd love to have some insight into why people do this.
My question is, why do you go with that exchange, panic sell your bitcoins for fiat that you will most likely never get back anyway, the chances of getting bitcoins out are a bit higher i think, but still extremely low. The only reason MtGox is manipulating their market is so that a massive amount of people will open up new accounts and dump loads of fiat on their bank account to buy cheap bitcoins, then they will open up the exchange again and the value will bounce back and voila, they just made a lot of money out of a manifactured panic.
Why would you sell your coins at a 73% discount to somebody? Why would you knowingly help them achieve panic?
Maybe it's just that you're trying to make a quick profit yourself somehow?
- It hurts your portfolio.
- It hurts the bitcoin economy/trust in general.
I'd love to have some insight into why people do this.
panic doesn't cause people to make rational decisions
Just a question that i would like to have some people that do this answer. We all know MtGox is trying to crash the bitcoin value trying to save their own asses. At the time of writing the difference between Gox and other exchanges is 440 USD ( 73% under other exchanges ).
My question is, why do you go with that exchange, panic sell your bitcoins for fiat that you will most likely never get back anyway, the chances of getting bitcoins out are a bit higher i think, but still extremely low. The only reason MtGox is manipulating their market is so that a massive amount of people will open up new accounts and dump loads of fiat on their bank account to buy cheap bitcoins, then they will open up the exchange again and the value will bounce back and voila, they just made a lot of money out of a manifactured panic.
Why would you sell your coins at a 73% discount to somebody? Why would you knowingly help them achieve panic?
Maybe it's just that you're trying to make a quick profit yourself somehow?
- It hurts your portfolio.
- It hurts the bitcoin economy/trust in general.
I'd love to have some insight into why people do this.
My question is, why do you go with that exchange, panic sell your bitcoins for fiat that you will most likely never get back anyway, the chances of getting bitcoins out are a bit higher i think, but still extremely low. The only reason MtGox is manipulating their market is so that a massive amount of people will open up new accounts and dump loads of fiat on their bank account to buy cheap bitcoins, then they will open up the exchange again and the value will bounce back and voila, they just made a lot of money out of a manifactured panic.
Why would you sell your coins at a 73% discount to somebody? Why would you knowingly help them achieve panic?
Maybe it's just that you're trying to make a quick profit yourself somehow?
- It hurts your portfolio.
- It hurts the bitcoin economy/trust in general.
I'd love to have some insight into why people do this.
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