Topic: why does the price keep falling? (Read 4560 times)

The price is artificially low right now...

It's a combination of people selling to offset next years capital gains (April starts a new tax year in most of the world.) If you sell now, then buy in April you can deduct the purchase price from next years gains.

Also you very likely have a few problematic actors selling a large amount of coins daily, this trend is limited to the coins they have for sale. The next two months will very likely offer the cheapest coins you will ever see again outside of rare flash-crash type situations lasting only minutes if they occur...

Bitcoin has so much attention compared to the past, Bitcoin the protocol is the foundation of Bitcoin the commodity; the foundation of Bitcoin is what we are all attracted to. Bitcoin is still extremely attractive. Anybody with hint of visionary can see that the protocol and supporting infrastructure is bound to impact the world from now on.

I don't think bitstamp is gonna run, I really doubt it tbh

563$ is a good price if you bought below 1$. It's stupid not to sell now.
More exchanges will close or "freeze" funds, because they had an incident aka insider stealing coins.

Most exchanges are run by thieves. Bitstamp will be one of the next to close the doors. Just don't keep coins there.

Because there's some guy with an illimitable supply of coins who wants to buy an island.  He's been selling for 563 USD for almost a full day now.  He was selling at 557 for 8 hours the day before.  Effectively he controls the world-wide price of bitcoin.  And he doesn't seem to care how much money he loses.

+100

That exactly was the breaking point. All credibility lost. Any chance of being widely accepted gone. Consequently, there is only one way BTC and all the other crypto crap is going, and it is pointing way done. Sometimes I tend to believe that it was meant to end with the fall of Gox. What is traded on the  exchanges these days is more of a Zombi coin than anything else. People who still have serious amounts of coins in their wallets are obviously micro-selling right now to avoid panic and a sudden crash. But they are leaving. That is for sure.

I don't think it's weak. The only thing holding LTC up is the hope that it will get pumped when it is added to houbi, but at the moment huobi started ltc trading, LTC got dumped. Since LTC hype is over, LTC is back to normal following BTC.
Meanwhile, BTC has been following it's own path after the BTCchina hype. And there's the news of other exchanges getting hacked, blockchain.info problem, etc.

I'm not an expert in stock market so I'm not sure  
But in my field, peak could mean the top or the bottom and I also got confused with your question because BTCchina pump peak was at march 4

In that case, yes, BTC should be affected, but that train of thought is weakly linked IMHO. It is a supposition though.



I am speaking English as a second language. I thought peak only means the upward peak, the 'buttom peak' is perhaps called a dip?

k.
My reply wasn't meant just for you anyway and I didn't paid much attention on that LTC/BTC part. I just posted a detailed explanation why I think btc price is falling.



LTC bagholders wanted to cash out on 19th.. LTC to fiat is too low so they convert to BTC.. But BTC is already in a downtrend so what are they going to do? Of course, convert BTC to fiat.



What peak? You mean the bottom peak on march 3 before it rose? Or the top peak of the pump at march 4 after btcchina announced ltc? It's hard to check at bitcoinwisdom because I can't zoom any further.
I'm not sure when was the exact time BTCchina announced LTC or when insiders started to spread the news so I don't have any more info.
Just ask yourself if you remember any big news for BTC to get pumped that much on march 3-4.



From the chart, I could see that LTC got manipulated first to drop the price. Since LTC price is so low, seeing LTC rise so much could have triggered the BTC panic buyers who are expecting trend reversal because of the sideways movement and also those buying BTC to convert to LTC then fiat for profit.

You made your point really clear with picture. Here I challange it: You ascribe the 3rd March peak to BtcChina's announcing LTC. If my theory that LTC speculators are more twitchy is correct, then any sudden rise of bitcoin is going to emplify in LTC. So the LTC peak can be reasoned by the BTC peak. And why BTC peak? I don't think it is due to BtcChina announcing LTC at all. -- Unless you have another graph more detailed showing LTC peaked first - in that case I'll rethink - but I am a bad TA and doesn't know how to operate bitcoinwisdom.


I said "BtcChina just opened LTC/BTC market in this week, that doesn't normally happen in the weaknes of LTC."

I did not say "BtcChina just opened LTC/CNY market in this week, that doesn't normally happen in the weaknes of LTC."

I did not say "BtcChina just opened LTC market in this week, that doesn't normally happen in the weaknes of LTC."

I am correct to the detail:  "LTC/BTC", not "BTC/LTC". Nevertheless, LTC/BTC was paltry, so I removed the sentance after post - not that anything was incorrect.

btcchina added ltc at march 4 if I remember it correctly. Then huobi announced about ltc at around march 12 then added ltc at march 19.



See the price at around march 3? Btcchina surprised everyone by adding ltc.. I could see the btcchina insiders crashing the ltc price down before  the pump. Then ltc got pumped, people thought it's about to go up because everyone expects a trend reversal and excited about btc going to $1000+..  so they panic bought btc thinking it's cheap because of the ltc/btc ratio and some thought btc is going to the moon
Why btc didn't follow ltc when huobi announced ltc? because altcoins usually follow btc and not btc following altcoins. So btc continued going sideways then down.
So after the huobi pump. Ltc followed btc 

Why btc is falling now? Because there's no reason for it to go up in the first place.
 

Suppose people believe Karpeles has been runing fractional reserve, these people would think MtGox actually have caused inflation, because some of the coins Mark doesn't have are being circulated in the system. Such people should expect price boost after inflaction removed.

One possibility is: people are slowly undersanding what MtGox fiasco means. I don't think so, but I am short of sound reasons.


I learned things inbitcoin world happens faster than you can prepare. I would still think 2014 is a good year.

This type of argument comes up whenever the price goes down. It's wrong.

The few thousand new coins that miners create have little to nothing to do anymore with prices in 2014. It stopped being relevant shortly after the reward halving, meaning the amount of coins already in the market is now the major factor for price development. Even if every single one of the 3600 coins would be sold every day, it would not affect the price. It used to be that way when much more coins were created and much fewer coins were in the market. Not anymore.
Large holders or many holders are selling, not necessarily the miners.


The MtGox debacle is mainly responsible and the story that perhaps without Karpeles' bot and his fractional reserve system (for years) the actual price of Bitcoin would have never gone up from 20 Dollars to 266 in March 2013. So, it is news based that is the worst FUD there could be, namely actual uncertainty about Bitcoin's price development over the past 2 years. Was Bitcoin ever really "worth" more than 20 dollars, or 50, or 100? This is what the market adjusts to now. And the downtrend is no surprise even if people still believe in Bitcoin.

As Bitcoin becomes less of a new thing for wider audiences and reaches more and more adoption with small businesses, and regulation later this year will allow Wall Street to get in (and get in cheaply) the price will inevitably rise to enormous levels. None of this price change will happen in 2014 though.

The value of a LTC fell from 19th's 0.032BTC to today's 0.0275BTC. So let's say people lose faith in LTC RELATIVE TO BTC. That means wealth is being transfered from LTC to BTC or from LTC to fiat, and NOT evincing BTC-to-fiat transfer. I should see BTC price be boosted instead!

In fact, I think LTC simply amplifies the volatility of Bitcoin. Bitcoin investors are weathered, LTC investors are twitchy, thus whenever BTC falls you should see LTC falls even harder. When Bitcoin price drops to unexpected low and you didn't reserve cash to catch the bottom, simply convert you bitcoins to LTC, and conver them back later.

It went up because of btcchina and huobi's ltc pump and dump  
Now that ltc hype is over, it's going back down to were it should be... hahaha

without the ltc pump, the chart should have been like this:

That still doesn't explain why the recnet downward trend happens in late March, not early March.

Do you think the majority takes a full month to chow the MtGox fiasco and decided to quit now? This timing makes little sense to me.

You said miners caused it. If after MtGox everybody are holding or buyers/sellers reaches an equilibirum, and miners are causing disturbance, then the support should be the cost of power, because miners who are holding tends to refuse to recognize the lose. According to seriouscoin's recent post: "Buying a mining gear at current exchange rate, you will have very little chance to BREAK EVEN". So I doubt miners are asserting downward pressure. Besides, this "miners did it" execuse can be used any time to reason a fall, it is just too convenient to be true.


Why the correciton doesn't dub with the MtGox fall, late Feb and early March? It should, IMHO. I consider that if a correction has to happen, it tends to do so at the bad news, and MtGox is a very bad one.

IMO, after gox, all momentum in bitcoin was lost.  The problem is that the general public who had been wading into bitcoin and which was curious about it, became scared.  When you balance the risk the public sees with bitcoin vs. the benefit they get from owning it, the risk is too high.  As a result, no new money is coming into bitcoin - it's that simple I think, and I believe it may never come back.  

The price will simply grind down to a much lower level bc there simply aren't the needed buyers, and the miners who mine 3600 new bitcoin every day have to cover overhead and they will always be selling.  When there are more sellers than buyers = lower price.  (I think that major miners had been holding off selling after gox to keep the imagine of bitcoin up, and I think there were some major players who tried to prop up the price for a while for the same obvious reason).  But the confidence in bitcoin is gone and it is not coming back except for the hard core bitcoiners (of which I had been one prior to gox's collapse).

22th March (today), People's Bank of China announces that they did not announce a ban on Bitcoin, disprooving previous rumor, but, notice this: price did not rebounce following this announcement. If you ask me, I'd say market sentiment plays a more important role.

Sorry, I can't hear you over the sound of how much money I'm making. It is truly awful that I have profits in literally all investments I have made related to bitcoin. Granted some have done better than others. But I have bitcoin to thank for all the gains I have made. Period.

The price could fall to 0 and I would still love bitcoin. Bitcoin is the prodigy child I never had.

Your point about inflation and valueless transaction processing is so false it's almost a lie. Your attempt at trolling is limp at best. Sometimes I wonder how such inept trolling is satisfying. But I guess understanding bitcoin is hard and random comments are easier to manufacture.

At least troll about transaction malleability issues or how Austrian economics is flawed. Heck, even trolling about the volume would suffice.

Please do us all a service and challenge us with real issues.

I thing that the OP knows this, its obvious. But the question remains why are the people backing out.

Nothing is up. We are simply approaching the end of wave C slowly. Expect bottom at 300-320 USD within the next weeks(ATL:1/4 of ATH as seen in apr-jul 13).