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Topic: why has bitcoin been crashing? (Read 2392 times)

full member
Activity: 224
Merit: 100
April 24, 2013, 03:59:17 PM
#31
Why would they use it over the already established (and way less hassle) fiat currency? The whole draw of bitcoin is that it's NOT tied to fiat currencies that can be manipulated through inflation.

If you're looking for a payment method that's tied to fiat currency, use Paypal.
newbie
Activity: 14
Merit: 0
April 24, 2013, 03:29:19 PM
#30
Well no thats not true...... as most people aren't daft to leave their bitcoins in the exchange, so you would see new blocks, furthermore some ventures cause alot of blocks created such as satoshi dice, cut the bollocks already, if bitcoin was to be coded to be non volatile by the algorithm being changed and linking to be a constant value against the fiat with slight 0.5 % yearly deflation, would people use it Huh?? NO
member
Activity: 224
Merit: 10
April 24, 2013, 03:28:53 PM
#29
It's funny how people want everybody to use bitcoins in the way THEY see fit. It's a free market. Bitcoin is not a currency, nor is it a store of value, nor a payment processor. It has the properties of all of the above. Bitcoin is just Bitcoin. We have never seen anything like it before so let the free market decide how it's best used and calm down.
hero member
Activity: 756
Merit: 500
It's all fun and games until somebody loses an eye
April 24, 2013, 03:22:58 PM
#28
Quote
Your statement that most "People" with bitcoins don't use it as currency, only as speculation.

Forbes analysis showed Silk Road did $22 Million selling 10,000 drugs.  Marijuana last year in the US was a $6 Billion trade for one drug.

You are the one postulating Bitcoin is a highly used currency (and not simply just a speculation commodity) so you offer us the evidence.  Where is this exchange of goods and services happening and what are the dollar figures?

If the onus was on me to prove my point on speculation I think the volumes of buys and sells on MtFux is good evidence.  I doubt those $100k trades I see are people buying houses or converting their home sales to cash.  Show me your facts.

I have used bitcoins to buy and sell things, mostly shares in companies (at places like btct.co and bitfunder.com). Do you have any proof that most people only hold bitcoins as a speculative asset? Look at how many transactions are in every block, clearly people are using bitcoins. If nobody used them for anything but speculation, then they would all just sit at MtGox and nothing would be on the blockchain.
full member
Activity: 224
Merit: 100
April 24, 2013, 03:21:55 PM
#27
Quote
Your statement that most "People" with bitcoins don't use it as currency, only as speculation.

Forbes analysis showed Silk Road did $22 Million selling 10,000 drugs.  Marijuana last year in the US was a $6 Billion trade for one drug.

You are the one postulating Bitcoin is a highly used currency (and not simply just a speculation commodity) so you offer us the evidence.  Where is this exchange of goods and services happening and what are the dollar figures?

If the onus was on me to prove my point on speculation I think the volumes of buys and sells on MtFux is good evidence.  I doubt those $100k trades I see are people buying houses or converting their home sales to cash.  Show me your facts.

You don't think that very large buys/sells of bitcoin could be people moving their funds in a less traceable manner. Perhaps a few cypriots getting TFO of a falling airplane, and then getting back into the market with a more stable currency? That's not speculation, that's using a currency.

And again, your statement was that most people using bitcoin are speculating. But your argument only supports the idea that most bitcoin is being used for speculation. Those are two VERY different ideas, which is what Ashley was pointing out.

Most bitcoin users ALSO use it as a currency. However, most bitcoins are not necessarily being used as a currency.

Words matter.
newbie
Activity: 14
Merit: 0
April 24, 2013, 03:20:19 PM
#26
i like that WUJIwuji BIG PLUS ONE
newbie
Activity: 56
Merit: 0
April 24, 2013, 03:03:26 PM
#25
Quote
Your statement that most "People" with bitcoins don't use it as currency, only as speculation.

Forbes analysis showed Silk Road did $22 Million selling 10,000 drugs.  Marijuana last year in the US was a $6 Billion trade for one drug.

You are the one postulating Bitcoin is a highly used currency (and not simply just a speculation commodity) so you offer us the evidence.  Where is this exchange of goods and services happening and what are the dollar figures?

If the onus was on me to prove my point on speculation I think the volumes of buys and sells on MtFux is good evidence.  I doubt those $100k trades I see are people buying houses or converting their home sales to cash.  Show me your facts.
legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1037
Trusted Bitcoiner
April 24, 2013, 02:51:06 PM
#24
Any spike is followed by a correction, on any market not just bitcoin.  If the correction is bigger than expected,  some scarry sellers will transform the correction into a crash. Conclusion : any crush begins with a small correction...Smiley

sure

but if you look at the volume it took to do the small correction, you can safely say, it was a correction in the wrong direction...
member
Activity: 98
Merit: 10
April 24, 2013, 02:43:50 PM
#23
Any spike is followed by a correction, on any market not just bitcoin.  If the correction is bigger than expected,  some scarry sellers will transform the correction into a crash. Conclusion : any crush begins with a small correction...Smiley
newbie
Activity: 56
Merit: 0
April 24, 2013, 02:42:53 PM
#22
Rephrase your statement and it is correct. The majority of PEOPLE who buy it DO use it as currency. The majority of BITCOINS are not used as currency, rather, they are saved (or as the occupy wall st. bears like to say, "hoarded.")

I'm sorry I'm not responding to all this as I have money to make.  The point is "using as currency" means buying and spending for goods and services and not coins trading for USD (one currency for another).   Saving your money in the form of currency is cash reserve.  I don't know how to explain it much simpler to you.

How much USD is used to buy and trade goods each day versus how much is being saved (or merely traded for the sake of speculation, commodity not currency)?

How much BTC is used to buy and trade goods each day versus how much is being saved (or merely traded for the sake of speculation, commodity not currency)?

When you have a slight clue to the answers to these questions I bet a light bulb will suddenly go off over your head.

hero member
Activity: 756
Merit: 500
It's all fun and games until somebody loses an eye
April 24, 2013, 02:39:09 PM
#21
why has bitcoin been crashing?

Because the majority who buy it don't use it as currency.  They are speculating with something virtual and like to believe it is more valuable than gold or paper.  Thus since it is all speculation and the price is way overvalued, the price must come down.   I mean at least the Germans could wallpaper their house when their money became useless.  If the tiny market of goods traded via BTC crashes all you have is unneeded ones and zeros you will erase.  I love bitcoin but it has not been widespread adopted, only goes up on speculation, and will probably be overpriced until some of these wonderful news stories actually become reality.

Or maybe it is just the cyclic nature of using bitcoins: A bunch of people buy some bitcoins, which pushes the price up, they then go buy stuff with the bitcoins, the merchants then sell the bitcoins which pushes the price down again.
full member
Activity: 238
Merit: 100
April 24, 2013, 02:37:23 PM
#20
If there are always reasons for a price moment, that is not speculation but a science.
newbie
Activity: 14
Merit: 0
April 24, 2013, 02:36:12 PM
#19
Because the majority who buy it don't use it as currency.  They are speculating with something virtual and like to believe it is more valuable than gold or paper.  Thus since it is all speculation and the price is way overvalued, the price must come down.   I mean at least the Germans could wallpaper their house when their money became useless. 


...
Wait, what?

That doesn't make ANY sense at all.
1) Your first statement, the foundation of your argument, applies to volume but not to population
Rephrase your statement and it is correct. The majority of PEOPLE who buy it DO use it as currency. The majority of BITCOINS are not used as currency, rather, they are saved (or as the occupy wall st. bears like to say, "hoarded.") Just like with any other currency. There are a FEW rich people who have lots of bitcoins, but most of them DO use coins for standard purchases, they just have so many that they would never need to spend anywhere near all of them. There are a LOT of not-so-rich people who have a few bitcoins, and have an equal basic need for goods and services and use bitcoins for them. They are your thousands upon thousands of nerds who have some saved for appreciation, and some used for various things - webhosting, computer parts, precious metals, online purchases, etc. Like Elwar buying dog food with bitcoins - is he "using it as a currency" because he bought dog food with it, or is he an "evil speculator" because he also has a cold wallet full of coins?
Your statement that most "People" with bitcoins don't use it as currency, only as speculation, is not only wrong, it is unprovable since it lacks a method for validation - what percent of total held coins must be spent on a regular basis in order to be considered a "person who uses bitcoin as a currency?" Does a person who spends 50% of his coins regularly qualify as a "spender" but somone who spends 24% qualify as an evil speculator? At least start by making a claim that can be disproved.

2) When the statement is rephrased to refer to volume rather than population, i.e. the only way it could be correct, it applies equally to fiat money.
The vast majority of PEOPLE with viat money (99.9999%) use it as a currency.
However, the vast majority of the TOTAL VOLUME of fiat money is used for speculation (many quadrillions in the futures market, which is many times more than the remaining quantity of money on the entire earth.)

Fiat money has only novelty value as a wallpaper so that is a moot point. Even if bitcoin was worth 1 cent, I could instantly send it to someone in Bangkok, anonymously and for a very low fee. I can't do that with a piece of paper after it hyperinflates, falls out of favor, and is not accepted anywhere except in my authoritarian country.
(Try passing a Cypriot-marked euro in Germany or an Argentinian peso in any other country, heck, try even leaving the countries with those bills in your wallet without getting arrested. Capital controls are a bitch.)




bitcoinashley bitcoin ashley just shut your trap, what are you the bear nazi. get a life
legendary
Activity: 1137
Merit: 1001
April 24, 2013, 02:34:58 PM
#18
The real question is why does the stock market crash like this? Bitcoin is hyper-liquid and has no barrier to quick sales. It is a small, and has relatively shallow depth and is unregulated. The stock market of the 19th.century was similar and went through comparable boom and bust cycles. I think bitcoin is responding logically to the present market forces.

In demand driven markets, such as Stocks, Bonds, Real estate and Bitcoin, the supply is known or easy to forcast. There can be IPOs, bond issues, and high-rises to increase supply, but this is not a large price risk to the market. The price is simply what will someone pay for it. These prices are subject to price collapses, as lower prices can actually reduce demand in human psyche.

In supply driven markets such as orange juice, gasoline, grains. The demand is relatively known, but the supply is a concern. Weather and war impacts the potential supply of these markets. The price risk to these markets is to the upside as a frost and drought can wipe out a large portion of oranges and corn. A hurricane can cause natural gas supply to be halted. War in the middle east shocks supply concerns of crude oil.

legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1037
Trusted Bitcoiner
April 24, 2013, 02:34:30 PM
#17
a hand full of generous bitcoiners are selling to a crowd of newbies...

Thank them!
full member
Activity: 224
Merit: 100
April 24, 2013, 02:29:14 PM
#16
Bitcoin is volitile, it's not "crashing". A jump from $20 to $260, and a fall back to $150 is not a crash. It's a short term jump, and a quick correction.

There are lots of contributing factors to the recent major fluctuations. Some of it has to do with all of the coverage it was receiving when it was climbing (new people jumping on board), some of it has to do with people "liquidating" their liquid assets in banks in order to try to keep from being robbed (Cyprus), they "liquidated" their euros to Bitcoins. Lots of people doing this at once causes prices to spike. Then they took the bicoins and "liquidated" them in a different bank/country. Lots of people selling coins at once causes a drop...

But after the craziness, we're still at $150, as opposed to $20 a few weeks ago. That's a far cry from a "crash".
sr. member
Activity: 448
Merit: 250
April 24, 2013, 02:29:03 PM
#15
Because the majority who buy it don't use it as currency.  They are speculating with something virtual and like to believe it is more valuable than gold or paper.  Thus since it is all speculation and the price is way overvalued, the price must come down.   I mean at least the Germans could wallpaper their house when their money became useless. 


...
Wait, what?

That doesn't make ANY sense at all.
1) Your first statement, the foundation of your argument, applies to volume but not to population
Rephrase your statement and it is correct. The majority of PEOPLE who buy it DO use it as currency. The majority of BITCOINS are not used as currency, rather, they are saved (or as the occupy wall st. bears like to say, "hoarded.") Just like with any other currency. There are a FEW rich people who have lots of bitcoins, but most of them DO use coins for standard purchases, they just have so many that they would never need to spend anywhere near all of them. There are a LOT of not-so-rich people who have a few bitcoins, and have an equal basic need for goods and services and use bitcoins for them. They are your thousands upon thousands of nerds who have some saved for appreciation, and some used for various things - webhosting, computer parts, precious metals, online purchases, etc. Like Elwar buying dog food with bitcoins - is he "using it as a currency" because he bought dog food with it, or is he an "evil speculator" because he also has a cold wallet full of coins?
Your statement that most "People" with bitcoins don't use it as currency, only as speculation, is not only wrong, it is unprovable since it lacks a method for validation - what percent of total held coins must be spent on a regular basis in order to be considered a "person who uses bitcoin as a currency?" Does a person who spends 50% of his coins regularly qualify as a "spender" but somone who spends 24% qualify as an evil speculator? At least start by making a claim that can be disproved.

2) When the statement is rephrased to refer to volume rather than population, i.e. the only way it could be correct, it applies equally to fiat money.
The vast majority of PEOPLE with viat money (99.9999%) use it as a currency.
However, the vast majority of the TOTAL VOLUME of fiat money is used for speculation (many quadrillions in the futures market, which is many times more than the remaining quantity of money on the entire earth.)

Fiat money has only novelty value as a wallpaper so that is a moot point. Even if bitcoin was worth 1 cent, I could instantly send it to someone in Bangkok, anonymously and for a very low fee. I can't do that with a piece of paper after it hyperinflates, falls out of favor, and is not accepted anywhere except in my authoritarian country.
(Try passing a Cypriot-marked euro in Germany or an Argentinian peso in any other country, heck, try even leaving the countries with those bills in your wallet without getting arrested. Capital controls are a bitch.)


newbie
Activity: 56
Merit: 0
April 24, 2013, 02:20:14 PM
#14
Bitcoin is volatile, pray to the gods of commerce, and luck
newbie
Activity: 54
Merit: 0
April 24, 2013, 02:19:43 PM
#13
Once Bitcoin reaches critical mass, the price will become much more stable.  Until then it's a roller coaster.
and what defines critical mass?
"When the price becomes more stable"?
newbie
Activity: 56
Merit: 0
April 24, 2013, 02:19:00 PM
#12
The real question is why does the stock market crash like this? Bitcoin is hyper-liquid and has no barrier to quick sales. It is a small, and has relatively shallow depth and is unregulated. The stock market of the 19th.century was similar and went through comparable boom and bust cycles. I think bitcoin is responding logically to the present market forces.

Because stocks are valued in Price % Earnings.  P/E ratio.  It is speculation exactly like Bitcoin is.  When the earnings come out lower than expected the Price goes down as speculators realize they were wrong.
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