People could pay 5% to obtain a international wire out of MtGox.
This is the reason there is an hige 10% differential between Gox and Bistamp.
5%+IW time = 10% spread.
Topic: Why has bitcoin jumped recently? (Read 2398 times)
...Thinking about it, buy @127 and sell @144 you have the potential to get lots of money. Yet people would rather NOT do it.
I can print tons of monopoly money on my own printer without risking my coins
I think current situation is confirming my suspect that price was going up on Gox only because people want out of it, and is pretty much over now.
First we had large USD->BTC buys driving price up in $10 steps, now we have many days of dead flat price on Gox and price falling on bitstamp, as the people moving coins there start selling.
We are approaching today to $20 spread between gox and bitstamp. This is the biggest spread we ever had, and is growing. IMHO, the only reason this can happen is when nobody would touch gox with a barge pole, so we don't see any arbitrage happening. Thinking about it, buy @127 and sell @144 you have the potential to get lots of money. Yet people would rather NOT do it.
First we had large USD->BTC buys driving price up in $10 steps, now we have many days of dead flat price on Gox and price falling on bitstamp, as the people moving coins there start selling.
We are approaching today to $20 spread between gox and bitstamp. This is the biggest spread we ever had, and is growing. IMHO, the only reason this can happen is when nobody would touch gox with a barge pole, so we don't see any arbitrage happening. Thinking about it, buy @127 and sell @144 you have the potential to get lots of money. Yet people would rather NOT do it.
I never wrote it's fake, every price movement is legitimate. Fundamentals don't mean shit when it comes to Bitcoin prices, it's a Keynesian Beauty Contest.
So what we see is (a) a shift of volume from mtgox to other exchanges, (b) more confidence by buyers, maybe for the wrong reasons, (c) an overall reluctance to sell coins. Looks good enough me.
Maybe we see the same thing, but give it different names. An uptrend lasting several months is never fake in my book, even if it ends in a crash. What matters is how fast price recovers, and if it ends higher or lower than before it took off.
Maybe we see the same thing, but give it different names. An uptrend lasting several months is never fake in my book, even if it ends in a crash. What matters is how fast price recovers, and if it ends higher or lower than before it took off.
The thing is, as this goes on and the asks are depleted on mtgox it sparks more confidence for the bulls, which in term makes them wire more money to other exchanges.
True, mtgox is still the market leader. Current 30d volume of mtgox vs 30d volume of bitstamp is 566k vs. 334k. That's an interesting definition of "dwarf".
I'm meaning the amount of funds present in the exchange, not the volume. I think that there is a big discrepancy between the volume and the amount of funds in the exchanges. Others have been lot more active in terms of relative volume but that doesn't change the funds on the exchange itself.
Look, I'm very doubtful myself about the sustainability of the current uptrend. I wouldn't be all that surprised if we go down again, double digits down, and do so hard. But right now, we're not going up for the reason you mention. What does the order book matter, or total funds stored on the exchange, if people actually buy in large quantities on both exchanges? There's obviously enough cash on bitstamp to overtake mtgox on daily volume on occasion.
What you describe would mean uncertainty drives up the price on mtgox, which then drives up the on the other exchanges, and so on. Problem is, it's not a feedback loop. If you buy coins to get out completely, you will sell on the the other exchanges, which would drive down the price. On the other hand, if you buy coins on mtgox to hold on to them, you might be willing to pay a premium, but then you hold on to them. The way it looks now, reality looks much more in line with the second explanation than with the first.
True, mtgox is still the market leader. Current 30d volume of mtgox vs 30d volume of bitstamp is 566k vs. 334k. That's an interesting definition of "dwarf".
I'm meaning the amount of funds present in the exchange, not the volume. I think that there is a big discrepancy between the volume and the amount of funds in the exchanges. Others have been lot more active in terms of relative volume but that doesn't change the funds on the exchange itself.
Quote
Why has bitcoin jumped recently?
bitcoin is booming.
Completely inconsistent with the under 7k 24hr volume I'm seeing on Gox right now (even less on Bitstamp) and the extreme difficulty in getting fiat out of Gox, which is the ONLY thing driving the price up atm.
Booming... yea right. More like Gox extorting the suckers with fiat there.
Spread is increasing overall, that the other exchanges follow mtgox still comes to no great surprise.
It is simply that the amount of USD in mtgox still dwarfs the amount present in the other exchanges. This can go a long way, in theory above the ATH actually.
The problem though is that there isn't really a mechanism to know where it would end unless you know how many funds are in the exchanges besides the order book.
It is simply that the amount of USD in mtgox still dwarfs the amount present in the other exchanges. This can go a long way, in theory above the ATH actually.
The problem though is that there isn't really a mechanism to know where it would end unless you know how many funds are in the exchanges besides the order book.
True, spread slowly went up, from around 6% in July, 9% in August, to around 11% now. In the past weeks it stabilized, actually went down again from a peak about two weaks ago. In any case, that's simply not the development you would see if people would try to get out of mtgox (which they do) and rush out of bitcoin altogether (which they don't, at least not in large numbers).
True, mtgox is still the market leader. Current 30d volume of mtgox vs 30d volume of bitstamp is 566k vs. 334k. That's an interesting definition of "dwarf".
Spread is increasing overall, that the other exchanges follow mtgox still comes to no great surprise.
It is simply that the amount of USD in mtgox still dwarfs the amount present in the other exchanges. This can go a long way, in theory above the ATH actually.
The problem though is that there isn't really a mechanism to know where it would end unless you know how many funds are in the exchanges besides the order book.
It is simply that the amount of USD in mtgox still dwarfs the amount present in the other exchanges. This can go a long way, in theory above the ATH actually.
The problem though is that there isn't really a mechanism to know where it would end unless you know how many funds are in the exchanges besides the order book.
Quote
Why has bitcoin jumped recently?
bitcoin is booming.
Feedback from the mtgox liquidity crisis, nothing else.
Bullshit. We're in this trend since early July. Whatever the reasons (epic bull trap? actual reversal?), the often invoked, bordering on magical "liquidity crisis" can only be a minor part of it, otherwise you'd see not just a largely fixed spread between mtgox and the other exchanges, but a widely diverging price development.
Whatever caused the recent jumps (apart from the obvious: large buys) needs to be seen in perspective of a now almost 2 month long, rather solid upwards trend on all other major exchanges.
tl;dr don't be a lazy bear. at least be creative.
Feedback from the mtgox liquidity crisis, nothing else.
That's the same as saying that the crash from $266 happened because of DDoS, nothing else.
Not really, there were DDoS attacks all the way back during the rally which hadn't had any dramatic effect.
What remains is Technical Analysis which acts as an amplifier for volatility.
Feedback from the mtgox liquidity crisis, nothing else.
That's the same as saying that the crash from $266 happened because of DDoS, nothing else.
The price goes up because Bitcoin is amazing. It goes down because people temporarily got too excited about how amazing Bitcoin is.
^ This.
Ignore all the short-term thinking and other small-mindedness.
Still in price discovery phase, bitcoins wil end up being worth gazillions of dollars so a long way up still to go
American Government behind all this 
Feedback from the mtgox liquidity crisis, nothing else.
6) Many people were waiting on the sidelines to get into bitcoin but they wanted to see the bubble deflate first. After hitting $65 some people just couldn't wait any longer and decided to buy which ignited a chain reaction lasting until this day.
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