Why has bitcoin prices not increased just after halving ?

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Quote from: STT on May 11, 2024, 01:48:03 PM

Buy the rumor sell the news is a simple succinct phrase which will give you guidance right across the range of market asset.

The reason such simple reasoning applies to widely and true for centuries is that it applies to humans who deal the prices and thats key most of the time. Purely in a logical determination only you are not incorrect to assume less supply brings a higher price.

The explanation is that BTC has speculators, most markets do and they know ahead of time the supply will be lower. People buy ahead of the news and the price rises in proportion before the event. This isnt a one off, its almost every time you can expect some similar fashion of movement to this.

agreed that this saying has influenced the whole market to some extent, even I think whenever there's rumour, the price just increased instantly it means people are really trying hard to get ahead of the other in term of timing.
after all if you are early, that means you get best opportunity compared to others and probably gonna make a ton of money moving forward.
but this words especially holds true when it comes to current condition, halving are already hyped up since back then when the price of bitcoin was still sub $40k, i'm sure right now people are more focused on the other thing such as waiting for the rally to finally comes in.

Quote from: moneystery on May 11, 2024, 01:37:51 PM

most investors who think that bitcoin will rise immediately after the halving are fomo investors who don't understand bitcoin at all. they think that when they buy it before the halving, they will immediately get a profit, even though what happens is that the price of bitcoin will not immediately rise after the halving.

we just have to wait and see whether these fomo investors will be able to stand it or not seeing bitcoin prices become unstable in the next few months.

agreed with this, but then again if these people honestly have patience to wait for few months they'd be seeing some massive price increase its just matter of time in my opinion that the price just gonna climbs.
the timing currently is just not right so there are many people holding back from further buying probably waiting for the right time.
but it also means that if we are diamond hand, buying right now might works wonder for future.

Essential10

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This time because Bitcoin had a lot of price increases before the halving and even reached an all-time high. Many may be expecting that the price of Bitcoin will start to increase after the halving in the same way that it did before the halving. After the Bitcoin halving the price of Bitcoin continues to decline but we see the price of Bitcoin holding a stable position above $60k and below $65k.I thought after the halving the price would take a big correction but that's not the case. It just seems to me that the price of bitcoin is in a nice position after that the bullishness of bitcoin has not started yet maybe it will start slowly maybe we can see bitcoin price of $100k in the next bull season.

STT

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Buy the rumor sell the news is a simple succinct phrase which will give you guidance right across the range of market asset.

The reason such simple reasoning applies to widely and true for centuries is that it applies to humans who deal the prices and thats key most of the time. Purely in a logical determination only you are not incorrect to assume less supply brings a higher price.

The explanation is that BTC has speculators, most markets do and they know ahead of time the supply will be lower. People buy ahead of the news and the price rises in proportion before the event. This isnt a one off, its almost every time you can expect some similar fashion of movement to this.

moneystery

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Quote from: Promocodeudo on May 11, 2024, 07:33:06 AM

Bitcoin having does not guarantee immediate hyke in bitcoin price that benefits hodlers, atleast this year halving has clarify that and I think from now onward many bitcoiners that's has not experienced this will now understand that events may not occurs as we expect it to be in regards to Bitcoin
...

most investors who think that bitcoin will rise immediately after the halving are fomo investors who don't understand bitcoin at all. they think that when they buy it before the halving, they will immediately get a profit, even though what happens is that the price of bitcoin will not immediately rise after the halving.

we just have to wait and see whether these fomo investors will be able to stand it or not seeing bitcoin prices become unstable in the next few months.

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Quote from: arhipova on April 20, 2024, 08:25:31 AM

Bitcoin mining fees has increased considerably today after halving but there are no effect on bitcoin prices. I suggested some friends to invest before and they are blaming me for the suggestion. I told them to wait for final effect as it can take some days for effect on prices but they are impatient.

The impatient after being warned, let them decide for themselves what they will do.
The increase in Bitcoin transaction fees after the halving has made some people wonder why the price of Bitcoin has not increased, instead the fees have increased. Regarding the increase in fees at that time, it was answered that it was disturbed because of the runes.

Expecting an increase in price, did not happen immediately after the Bitcoin halving occurred. It takes some time or we need to wait until that moment happens. Now the market is a little stagnant, but don't be pessimistic.

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Quote from: arhipova on April 20, 2024, 08:25:31 AM

Bitcoin mining fees has increased considerably today after halving but there are no effect on bitcoin prices. I suggested some friends to invest before and they are blaming me for the suggestion. I told them to wait for final effect as it can take some days for effect on prices but they are impatient.

Bitcoin having does not guarantee immediate hyke in bitcoin price that benefits hodlers, atleast this year halving has clarify that and I think from now onward many bitcoiners that's has not experienced this will now understand that events may not occurs as we expect it to be in regards to Bitcoin, we understand that the major reason for any investment is profit but it is also good to understand the investment itself and the events that are bound to happen in the investment as time goes on, although many bitcoiners exepected that Bitcoin will pump more immediately we get into halving in full but was disappointed but then volatility has taken it course aince then till now that doesnt meant that bitcoin wont go up in price, it only means that we shouldnt time bitcoin because our timing may be proven wrong by price fluntuation.

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Quote from: doomloop on April 29, 2024, 02:28:22 AM

Quote from: Hamphser on April 24, 2024, 04:59:14 PM

People are rushing and expect that after day 1 of halving event they are really that longing for that huge long green candle on the chart. lol

For those who havent been able to experience bull run then they would really be having that kind of approach or beliefs that they do have in mind since they do lack that awareness and experience.
On the time that they've been wary about on how this market works then they would really be that tending to adjust accordingly. It do really still takes time but of course its something that would
not be known on when it would happen. It is really just that people are really that too impatient on things on which they do really believe that they could really be able to handle it out
so easily and did expect that price pumps could really happen afterwards.

That's because of a lack of knowledge among newbie investors because they didn't do any research before making investments so they don't know how it works in the first place, if they had checked the charts and the history of Bitcoin, they would know that the halving doesn't magically make the price go up because it's a technical event that reduces the block reward of Bitcoin and doesn't pump the price of it.

What's surprising for me is to see some senior investors asking the same question and having doubts that why Bitcoin and the market didn't go up after the halving and these questions were being asked after one day of the halving which clearly shows that they were expecting a sudden pump in the price of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies right after the halving event.

Those people are not really aware of the market, and they do not check it. If you are a "veteran" and still asking why it hasn't gone up yet, then you are not really a veteran at all, that's why it doesn't really make sense to call them a veteran. Just because they have been here for a long time, doesn't make them a veteran.

Someone who has been here for 10 years, and luckily got into the market and invested when it was cheap because some friend told them and they just did not get out, may not have any idea about what halving even is, whereas someone who has been here for a year, who worked on every indicator and learned very well, could make more money than the old timer. That's why veteran is not something we say to just people who has been here for a long time.

doomloop

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Quote from: Hamphser on April 24, 2024, 04:59:14 PM

People are rushing and expect that after day 1 of halving event they are really that longing for that huge long green candle on the chart. lol

For those who havent been able to experience bull run then they would really be having that kind of approach or beliefs that they do have in mind since they do lack that awareness and experience.
On the time that they've been wary about on how this market works then they would really be that tending to adjust accordingly. It do really still takes time but of course its something that would
not be known on when it would happen. It is really just that people are really that too impatient on things on which they do really believe that they could really be able to handle it out
so easily and did expect that price pumps could really happen afterwards.

That's because of a lack of knowledge among newbie investors because they didn't do any research before making investments so they don't know how it works in the first place, if they had checked the charts and the history of Bitcoin, they would know that the halving doesn't magically make the price go up because it's a technical event that reduces the block reward of Bitcoin and doesn't pump the price of it.

What's surprising for me is to see some senior investors asking the same question and having doubts that why Bitcoin and the market didn't go up after the halving and these questions were being asked after one day of the halving which clearly shows that they were expecting a sudden pump in the price of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies right after the halving event.

bangjoe

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For me personally it is quite simple why bitcoin does not have a price increase after Halving, it's simple, in my opinion because 100 days before Halving bitcoin had a very significant increase and passed the ATH in the previous cycle, isn't that an increase? remember that the bitcoin price increase can be before or after Halving, and maybe this time it happened before halving.

But actually I am still quite bullish on bitcoin, considering that we are still in a safe price level because it is above $60k, the potential that exists in the bitcoin price movement can touch the $90k price level, maybe we just need to wait for some technical confirmation in seeing this opportunity, the current price fluctuations are also quite steep but sellers and buyers are still fighting.

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Quote from: arhipova on April 20, 2024, 08:25:31 AM

Bitcoin mining fees has increased considerably today after halving but there are no effect on bitcoin prices. I suggested some friends to invest before and they are blaming me for the suggestion. I told them to wait for final effect as it can take some days for effect on prices but they are impatient.

For me, the price reaction already happened months ago before the Bitcoin block halved. See previous Bitcoin block halvings.
This is the market, no one can predict it. We just must be happy because we have Bitcoin as decentralized, and these Bitcoin block halvings are special feature of Bitcoin where it is built to help decentralization of Bitcoin.

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Quote from: Adbitco on April 28, 2024, 03:46:09 AM

Telling a friend about bitcoin shows that giving them a pure knowledge about bitcoin this includes all aspect of bitcoin because any part didn't understood correctly they would hold you responsible that is why most times I am afraid to bring someone to invest in bitcoin, because they don't mind labeling you all manner of names because of their low and lack of understanding on how bitcoin works.
Before asking someone to invest you should at least explain the importance to them especially the security aspect of their wallet because whenever their funds are found missing then you are the next to be held responsible for either stealing their funds or misleading them.

Whenever I am asked about bitcoin or investing in general I try to avoid the question, because I know very well what is going on, people do not really care about investing at all, they just want to be told what to do and make a lot of money without taking any risk at all, and since this is not possible I just do not entertain them at all, however if for some reason I am forced to give some sort of advice, I always keep it very general and never name any asset or market in specific, so I just tell them to read a few books about the topic and I let them to figure out the rest on their own.

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Quote from: arhipova on April 20, 2024, 08:25:31 AM

Bitcoin mining fees has increased considerably today after halving but there are no effect on bitcoin prices. I suggested some friends to invest before and they are blaming me for the suggestion. I told them to wait for final effect as it can take some days for effect on prices but they are impatient.

You bought on FOMO and that was too early. The right time to buy is always a few weeks after halving. I'm considering two to three weeks after halving for price to dump. Already, we're witnessing that but it hasn't got to the point I'm speculating. Price has to dump to scare people so that there will be redistribution of wealth in the hands of hodlers. Those who are paper hands will sell off in fear and new hodlers will emerge or OGs will have an opportunity to acquire more. From TA point, there are several corrections that should take place. The first point is around $52,300 region and if it breaks that it heads down to $43,450. I don't want to see it go further down. The first level should be ok. But then, I can't dictate what the market should do. I'm just a keen observer who trades what he sees and not what he feels. Anywhere the market directs, we follow; otherwise we get burnt.

Adbitco

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Telling a friend about bitcoin shows that giving them a pure knowledge about bitcoin this includes all aspect of bitcoin because any part didn't understood correctly they would hold you responsible that is why most times I am afraid to bring someone to invest in bitcoin, because they don't mind labeling you all manner of names because of their low and lack of understanding on how bitcoin works.
Before asking someone to invest you should at least explain the importance to them especially the security aspect of their wallet because whenever their funds are found missing then you are the next to be held responsible for either stealing their funds or misleading them.

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Quote from: martinex on April 27, 2024, 09:20:07 AM

Quote from: Kelvinid on April 26, 2024, 06:08:40 AM

The market moves in a roller coaster, up and down -- and every pump happens, there is always a drop to follow, and vice versa.

and that is a normal reaction for those who like to bet and want to take advantage of opportunities from market volatility, be it a novice investor or an advanced one as well, but if he plays long-term and continues to buy BTC during the current conditions, he may be calmer, emotional, and less drawn into the situation.

I think the market will still rise upwards even though it has been bought at a high price before because of the BTC correction in the market but if we are patient, the price will be picked up too and rise even more. In the next month, there will be an increase.

many speculations projected that the price gonna be rising from here on, just like how it has happened in the past, i mean there are certainly chance that we might take different path compared with the past but there's nothing wrong in believing that the past gonna repeat since the chart pattern is similar, if the similarity have a meaning, we can eventually see the history repeating again.

talking about the rollercoaster of a market, its always like this, the pump never last for a long time, there will eventually some market correction happening along the way, but one thing for sure if we are in bullish the correction won't make the price of bitcoin goes back to its initial price when bullish was just starting.
in bullish we got higher bottom floor than previous bearish, even in the future if the market suddenly hititng bearish we might see the bottom price to be around $40 - 50k probably which means we are still in a good trajectory into achieving that $100k marks.

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Quote from: arhipova on April 20, 2024, 08:25:31 AM

Bitcoin mining fees has increased considerably today after halving but there are no effect on bitcoin prices. I suggested some friends to invest before and they are blaming me for the suggestion. I told them to wait for final effect as it can take some days for effect on prices but they are impatient.

You telling them to wait for some days is where you went wrong. Firstly you don't control the market so there is every possibility that their patience will run out because you gave them your words that they should wait for some days to see profit instead of some months or a year. It appears that you don't have adequate knowledge how the halving works or this might be the first halving that you are experiencing it. At this point that you are trying to calm your friends down and they are on your neck with much pressure, since you have more understanding than they do, you have to buy that bitcoin from them at the price they bought it with. You have to make that sacrifice so you can have your peace of mind. If you can't buy it from them, it's best you open up to them and tell them it will take up to a year from the halving date to see substantial profit from the investment. There is nothing to hide there.

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Quote from: Kelvinid on April 26, 2024, 06:08:40 AM

The market moves in a roller coaster, up and down -- and every pump happens, there is always a drop to follow, and vice versa.

and that is a normal reaction for those who like to bet and want to take advantage of opportunities from market volatility, be it a novice investor or an advanced one as well, but if he plays long-term and continues to buy BTC during the current conditions, he may be calmer, emotional, and less drawn into the situation.

I think the market will still rise upwards even though it has been bought at a high price before because of the BTC correction in the market but if we are patient, the price will be picked up too and rise even more. In the next month, there will be an increase.

STT

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This topic title and the attitude that goes with it is totally reasonable but does make me wonder if the missing presumative positive could even lead to an ironic negative sell off. Might just be short term but today Im watching the line to see how we end this week off.

We're below the 50 day average and this alone is never resistance but it is some indicator for caution. We cannot be bullish or think that way while hesitating below the 50 day average, its a solid measure of medium term momentum and we are lacking at present.

The other point Im watching is totally simple, its the edges of the fish bowl we've swimming in circles within since Feb. It looked good at first but Im bored now and worse still would be if the market itself lost patience and sold off from here.

Failure to hold the 60k range and not recover quickly as we managed just week would put us back into the bad lands, outside this hospitable if restraining borders.

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you are too impatient, the bullrun needs time, the whales need to accumulate, often time its just to make those paper hand cash out first because they gonna be burden on the price candle because the paper hand are the first one that unload their bitcoin, I think thats the reason.

also, don't get your hopes too high, there are even speculation that the real bullrun will only come after a year by seeing the chart in 5 year interval, you don't get quick profit out of this, you need to hold and its gonna be rocky, there will be many price correction along the way that shaken your faith in HODLing but don't stop HODLing because only then you can make profit.
i learned the hard way missing out on so many opportunity not gonna miss again just because scared of price correction for all I know.
bitcoin approved of its ETF means bitcoin is good enough and consistent enough to be investment instrument that you don't need to be too scared the price won't go descending to zero.

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Quote from: Kelvinid on April 26, 2024, 06:08:40 AM

Quote from: arhipova on April 20, 2024, 08:25:31 AM

Bitcoin mining fees has increased considerably today after halving but there are no effect on bitcoin prices. I suggested some friends to invest before and they are blaming me for the suggestion. I told them to wait for final effect as it can take some days for effect on prices but they are impatient.

We are all wrong about it because it is the fees that badly increase while the price drops. This is probably because the majority are selling their BTC causing a huge drop. But this does not say it will be like this until this year because I was still optimistic it would come soon and kept on waiting for the new ATH. Just like the previous halvings, it never pumps right after halving but just after a few weeks.

The market moves in a roller coaster, up and down -- and every pump happens, there is always a drop to follow, and vice versa.
Indeed, impatient people keep on complaining and too much expectation will somewhat affect our minds negatively.

I do agree that there are a lot of people who are avoiding it at the current moment because of that situation, but I also believe that mining did played a role in it as well, we will have to wait and see the difficulty.

If there are less miners, then it is going to cost a lot more and that could be one of the reasons why the fee situation is like that. This does not mean that it is going to be always like that, of course the Runes played a bigger role and that doesn't mean that we are not going to end up with anything bigger or better, I believe that we can see the fee situation changing soon enough after a while. We should probably just consider this as a smaller situation and we could probably see the fee becoming cheaper, we just need to give it some time after this period.

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Quote from: erep on April 26, 2024, 09:50:05 PM

Quote from: arhipova on April 20, 2024, 08:25:31 AM

Bitcoin mining fees has increased considerably today after halving but there are no effect on bitcoin prices. I suggested some friends to invest before and they are blaming me for the suggestion. I told them to wait for final effect as it can take some days for effect on prices but they are impatient.

Short term traders face challenges due to uncertain market turmoil, they blame you because Bitcoin is still under negative pressure after the Halving. Their impatience will always put pressure on you due to the value of their assets continuing to decline, even though the congestion of Bitcoin price movements after the halving is a normal phenomenon and not something new.
The doubts experienced by your friends regarding where the Bitcoin market will go next after the halving event has not seen any significant changes shows that they are not ready for the pressure and negative sentiment that is occurring on Bitcoin. You must direct them to the principle of prioritizing patience because the effects of the Halving do not occur instantly. Point them to the history of Bitcoin's movements after the Halving, the effects of the halving will be felt within a few months after the four-yearly moment occurs.

It is true that based on history, we will soon receive a bull season in a few months when the halving is completed, but we also have no guarantee that everything will definitely repeat, the bull season will have to come. Bitcoin is unpredictable and there are no guarantees in the future, so before giving investment advice in bitcoin to others. We should tell them about the risks they will encounter, tell them that if you want high profits, you must accept high risks. There are no guarantees or certainties about anything, including price increases after halving.

I still hope history will repeat itself, bull season will arrive in a few months but to be honest, there is no guarantee of that.

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