Topic: Why has bitcoin prices not increased just after halving ? (Read 784 times)

Those people are not really aware of the market, and they do not check it. If you are a "veteran" and still asking why it hasn't gone up yet, then you are not really a veteran at all, that's why it doesn't really make sense to call them a veteran. Just because they have been here for a long time, doesn't make them a veteran.

Someone who has been here for 10 years, and luckily got into the market and invested when it was cheap because some friend told them and they just did not get out, may not have any idea about what halving even is, whereas someone who has been here for a year, who worked on every indicator and learned very well, could make more money than the old timer. That's why veteran is not something we say to just people who has been here for a long time.

That's because of a lack of knowledge among newbie investors because they didn't do any research before making investments so they don't know how it works in the first place, if they had checked the charts and the history of Bitcoin, they would know that the halving doesn't magically make the price go up because it's a technical event that reduces the block reward of Bitcoin and doesn't pump the price of it.

What's surprising for me is to see some senior investors asking the same question and having doubts that why Bitcoin and the market didn't go up after the halving and these questions were being asked after one day of the halving which clearly shows that they were expecting a sudden pump in the price of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies right after the halving event.

For me personally it is quite simple why bitcoin does not have a price increase after Halving, it's simple, in my opinion because 100 days before Halving bitcoin had a very significant increase and passed the ATH in the previous cycle, isn't that an increase? remember that the bitcoin price increase can be before or after Halving, and maybe this time it happened before halving.

But actually I am still quite bullish on bitcoin, considering that we are still in a safe price level because it is above $60k, the potential that exists in the bitcoin price movement can touch the $90k price level, maybe we just need to wait for some technical confirmation in seeing this opportunity, the current price fluctuations are also quite steep but sellers and buyers are still fighting.

For me, the price reaction already happened months ago before the Bitcoin block halved. See previous Bitcoin block halvings.
This is the market, no one can predict it. We just must be happy because we have Bitcoin as decentralized, and these Bitcoin block halvings are special feature of Bitcoin where it is built to help decentralization of Bitcoin.

Whenever I am asked about bitcoin or investing in general I try to avoid the question, because I know very well what is going on, people do not really care about investing at all, they just want to be told what to do and make a lot of money without taking any risk at all, and since this is not possible I just do not entertain them at all, however if for some reason I am forced to give some sort of advice, I always keep it very general and never name any asset or market in specific, so I just tell them to read a few books about the topic and I let them to figure out the rest on their own.

You bought on FOMO and that was too early. The right time to buy is always a few weeks after halving. I'm considering two to three weeks after halving for price to dump. Already, we're witnessing that but it hasn't got to the point I'm speculating. Price has to dump to scare people so that there will be redistribution of wealth in the hands of hodlers. Those who are paper hands will sell off in fear and new hodlers will emerge or OGs will have an opportunity to acquire more. From TA point, there are several corrections that should take place. The first point is around $52,300 region and if it breaks that it heads down to $43,450. I don't want to see it go further down. The first level should be ok. But then, I can't dictate what the market should do. I'm just a keen observer who trades what he sees and not what he feels. Anywhere the market directs, we follow; otherwise we get burnt.

Telling a friend about bitcoin shows that giving them a pure knowledge about bitcoin this includes all aspect of bitcoin because any part didn't understood correctly they would hold you responsible that is why most times I am afraid to bring someone to invest in bitcoin, because they don't mind labeling you all manner of names because of their low and lack of understanding on how bitcoin works.
Before asking someone to invest you should at least explain the importance to them especially the security aspect of their wallet because whenever their funds are found missing then you are the next to be held responsible for either stealing their funds or misleading them.

many speculations projected that the price gonna be rising from here on, just like how it has happened in the past, i mean there are certainly chance that we might take different path compared with the past but there's nothing wrong in believing that the past gonna repeat since the chart pattern is similar, if the similarity have a meaning, we can eventually see the history repeating again.

talking about the rollercoaster of a market, its always like this, the pump never last for a long time, there will eventually some market correction happening along the way, but one thing for sure if we are in bullish the correction won't make the price of bitcoin goes back to its initial price when bullish was just starting.
in bullish we got higher bottom floor than previous bearish, even in the future if the market suddenly hititng bearish we might see the bottom price to be around $40 - 50k probably which means we are still in a good trajectory into achieving that $100k marks.

You telling them to wait for some days is where you went wrong. Firstly you don't control the market so there is every possibility that their patience will run out because you gave them your words that they should wait for some days to see profit instead of some months or a year. It appears that you don't have adequate knowledge how the halving works or this might be the first halving that you are experiencing it. At this point that you are trying to calm your friends down and they are on your neck with much pressure, since you have more understanding than they do, you have to buy that bitcoin from them at the price they bought it with. You have to make that sacrifice so you can have your peace of mind. If you can't buy it from them, it's best you open up to them and tell them it will take up to a year from the halving date to see substantial profit from the investment. There is nothing to hide there.

and that is a normal reaction for those who like to bet and want to take advantage of opportunities from market volatility, be it a novice investor or an advanced one as well, but if he plays long-term and continues to buy BTC during the current conditions, he may be calmer, emotional, and less drawn into the situation.

I think the market will still rise upwards even though it has been bought at a high price before because of the BTC correction in the market but if we are patient, the price will be picked up too and rise even more. In the next month, there will be an increase.

This topic title and the attitude that goes with it is totally reasonable but does make me wonder if the missing presumative positive could even lead to an ironic negative sell off.  Might just be short term but today Im watching the line to see how we end this week off.

We're below the 50 day average and this alone is never resistance but it is some indicator for caution.   We cannot be bullish or think that way while hesitating below the 50 day average, its a solid measure of medium term momentum and we are lacking at present.

The other point Im watching is totally simple, its the edges of the fish bowl we've swimming in circles within since Feb.  It looked good at first but Im bored now and worse still would be if the market itself lost patience and sold off from here.

  Failure to hold the 60k range and not recover quickly as we managed just week would put us back into the bad lands, outside this hospitable if restraining borders.

you are too impatient, the bullrun needs time, the whales need to accumulate, often time its just to make those paper hand cash out first because they gonna be burden on the price candle because the paper hand are the first one that unload their bitcoin, I think thats the reason.

also, don't get your hopes too high, there are even speculation that the real bullrun will only come after a year by seeing the chart in 5 year interval, you don't get quick profit out of this, you need to hold and its gonna be rocky, there will be many price correction along the way that shaken your faith in HODLing but don't stop HODLing because only then you can make profit.
i learned the hard way missing out on so many opportunity not gonna miss again just because scared of price correction for all I know.
bitcoin approved of its ETF means bitcoin is good enough and consistent enough to be investment instrument that you don't need to be too scared the price won't go descending to zero.

I do agree that there are a lot of people who are avoiding it at the current moment because of that situation, but I also believe that mining did played a role in it as well, we will have to wait and see the difficulty.

If there are less miners, then it is going to cost a lot more and that could be one of the reasons why the fee situation is like that. This does not mean that it is going to be always like that, of course the Runes played a bigger role and that doesn't mean that we are not going to end up with anything bigger or better, I believe that we can see the fee situation changing soon enough after a while. We should probably just consider this as a smaller situation and we could probably see the fee becoming cheaper, we just need to give it some time after this period.

It is true that based on history, we will soon receive a bull season in a few months when the halving is completed, but we also have no guarantee that everything will definitely repeat, the bull season will have to come. Bitcoin is unpredictable and there are no guarantees in the future, so before giving investment advice in bitcoin to others. We should tell them about the risks they will encounter, tell them that if you want high profits, you must accept high risks. There are no guarantees or certainties about anything, including price increases after halving.

I still hope history will repeat itself, bull season will arrive in a few months but to be honest, there is no guarantee of that.

Short term traders face challenges due to uncertain market turmoil, they blame you because Bitcoin is still under negative pressure after the Halving. Their impatience will always put pressure on you due to the value of their assets continuing to decline, even though the congestion of Bitcoin price movements after the halving is a normal phenomenon and not something new.
The doubts experienced by your friends regarding where the Bitcoin market will go next after the halving event has not seen any significant changes shows that they are not ready for the pressure and negative sentiment that is occurring on Bitcoin. You must direct them to the principle of prioritizing patience because the effects of the Halving do not occur instantly. Point them to the history of Bitcoin's movements after the Halving, the effects of the halving will be felt within a few months after the four-yearly moment occurs.

Smiles, you introduced your friend without educating them on how Bitcoin works that's why you are been blamed. You literally made they believe that they will make money once halving is over and clearly showing indication of short term present and gain off the market. You have to think of Bitcoin in terms of a valuable asset for long-term investment rather than a tradable coin, how about when the bull run is over will you still be present!!!

You need to understand that the market doesn't work the way we think, just be patient and no need to panic, consider building and accumulating more Bitcoin, than thinking about how the market should go. Educate and talk to them they would understand and listen. They shouldn't be so impatient, it would appreciate.

In my experience, it doesn't really increase on the Bitcoin halving day most of the time, I mean we might see something you but if you are going to base on the Bitcoin halving timeline we don't usually see any increase on the Bitcoin halving event, If you tell your friends that market is going to skyrocket because of the Bitcoin halving for sure in theory that is what is going to happened, but your didn't make enough research if you said that it is going to skyrocket on the Bitcoin halving day, because the effect of halving is going to take in a year or even more, its already evident if you are going to check the Bitcoin halving timeline usually we are going to see the Bullrun after a year after the Bitcoin halving event.

There was an increase in its market price because of the Bitcoin halving event but it didn't happen on Bitcoin halving day, it usually happened before the Bitcoin halving event happened which is a few months before the halving, and we did see it, with some triggers and hype of the Bitcoin ETH we broke the all-time high market price, I believed in preparation of the Bitcoin halving it help to hype the market at that time.

I learned my lesson the hard way encouraging friends to invest in cryptocurrency, my advice is don't do it at all, you just want to share information but the encourage but actually you should discourage them because of its risk, then after that, if they still wanted to continue even before hearing the risk, you should teach them that they should be the one that is going to handle their money and do the research on there own.

Patience is the key. If you can’t be patient and can’t wait for few more months to see if bitcoin price has create a progress, then I believe even if we are not talking about halving, your mindset will definitely not work with bitcoin. Know that bitcoin price will certainly not stay high or low all the time, as it’s highly volatile so it makes price fluctuations most of the time.

You should have prepared for this before you decide to take the risk investing in bitcoin. Otherwise, if you chose to be in panic, you will only feel a lot of stress that will push you to sell at a loss.

Actually, you are not wrong in advising your friends to invest in Bitcoin because we are entering the halving moment and after the halving the price did not increase significantly, this is very normal. You should also teach your friends about patience and investing in bitcoin for the long term, not the short term.

Because it must be admitted that this fourth halving is slightly different from the previous halving. The difference with this year's halving is that the bitcoin price had already reached ATH before the halving momentum occurred, namely in March, but when the halving occurred, the bitcoin price actually fell.
 
Therefore, the impact of this year's halving will only be felt after the halving occurs. If looked at historically, the crypto market halving cycle will show positive growth in the next seven to nine months and rise towards a new ATH after that. Because after the halving there needs to be a price adjustment that crypto investors and traders must pay attention to. So it is possible that the bull run cycle is not expected to end at the end of this year, but possibly in the middle or quarter one and quarter two of next year. So you can tell your friends to continue to be patient, don't be rash in making decisions, study the history of the halving cycle again.

Yes, I agree. Having high expectations about the price of bitcoin rising quickly after the halving is not wrong, but there must be great support which in turn can make demand for bitcoin higher. Large flows of funds in the market from large investors or whales will have a quick positive impact on prices, but I don't see that as a big possibility because I think currently large investors and whales tend to wait for the right moment to influence the market.

I have no problem holding bitcoin for longer especially if the price I expect hasn't arrived yet. I expect a much higher ATH in the next 12 to 15 months, so as a consequence I have to be patient until that target is achieved. I don't know, it could be less than a year or maybe more, patience is the key to success.

Once again, I agree with your statement. It takes time to see the price of bitcoin rise significantly, so it's true that we just need to be patient and go through each stage without hesitation.