i am pretty sure the "bloodbath" for the bitcoin hodlers will get bloodier and bloodier
No doubt, IMHO mean-reversion is $1400, but it could also very well go down to $400, but that is still astronomic compared to the days that 50 btc bought one pizza.
BTC is/was for geeks, and these morons&idiiots that trade BTC & HODL are getting what they deserve, ... to be economically raped, and removed from the food-chain for their stupidity, and in time the GOV will go after the exchanges and imprison those who turned BTC into a PONZI.
From investopedia:
What is a 'Ponzi Scheme'?
A Ponzi scheme is a fraudulent investing scam promising high rates of return with little risk to investors. The Ponzi scheme generates returns for older investors by acquiring new investors. This is similar to a pyramid scheme in that both are based on using new investors' funds to pay the earlier backers. For both Ponzi schemes and pyramid schemes, eventually there isn't enough money to go around, and the schemes unravel.
Argumentum ad lunam: the fallacy that because Bitcoin's price is rising really fast the currency must be a speculative bubble and/or Ponzi scheme.
-Vitalik Buterin ca. 2016
Where in any legitimate and sourced bitcoin literature is there ever found a "promise of high rates of return with little risk to investors"? I've never seen it. I'm not saying there aren't those out there who have promoted/shilled this belief to naive n00bs and those in it for a quick buck, but this is very far from unique to only the crypto space, it happens everywhere. One smartens up or faces the consequences, that's life. The value of a bitcoin has never been and will never be congruent to any value of a fiat. They are two different things.
The argument that exchanges are guilty of or responsible for promoting the "ponzi" does not make sense to me... it goes straight back to one of the most fundamental tenets of crypto; if you don't own your private keys you don't own your bitcoin. Likewise, if you trust anyone or anything (exchanges included) to dictate to you the value (monetary or otherwise) of a bitcoin besides your own experience and expansion of knowledge/understanding in regard to it, you are precisely as potentially doomed as handing your private key to another. In other words, it is not the exchange's fault or responsibility to ensure I handle my crypto wisely, it is mine and only mine, or else it is not my crypto.
When I found crypto it wasn't the idea of generating a fiat return that drew me in at all, it was the awesomeness of what I was experiencing with it... being able to transact freely securely and if I wanted anonymously any time anywhere. It was true freedom to me, to not have to bow and pay homage to some hugely corrupted system every time I wanted to exchange some measure of value with another person or for another measure of value. It was in fact quite the opposite, the idea of never returning to fiat that drew me in, harhar. I have never exchange a single crypto for fiat, not sure I would or could. If bitcoin were back to $20 today honestly it would make zero difference to me except I'd have more, but I don't see that happening. I feel very certain that as time goes on and we continue to develop solutions and community it is only possible that more people come in to this same realm of experience and autonomy and self-empowerment. A big part of this experience definitely was exchanges for me, and yes I lost some $ in the process of gaining that experience, but I gained way more understanding than $ lost.
There will only ever be 21million btc in existence. There is a very firm limit set to the number of bitcoin ever to be in circulation. At the same time these days it can be fairly stated there will never be a limit to the number of USD or any other fiat in 'circulation', at this rate there will be infinitely many USD circulating by 2030 lol. So how could this possibly be a ponzi and unravel if there is essentially no limit to how much usd could potentially enter? Further, right now bitcoin has a lower market cap than the company Costco. Given the potential use cases bitcoin is facing, I consider this less than a drop in a bucket to what it could be.
Then obviously the theoretical question arises; what happens after 'mass adoption', when BTC and crypto are used and respected as much or more widely than fiat systems? What does the USD value of a bitcoin mean at at that point? Nothing? Then does it collapse? I can't say bitcoin will ever be the end-all-be-all solution, but I do think it can play a foundational role, and I do believe that with time and a strong supportive growing community a crypto/blockchain-based ecosystem could be developed (is already well-underway, actually) through which a truly reasonable efficient practical and beneficial solution to any applicable need on earth could exist or be found. I wouldn't even promote doing away with fiat, I think a healthy balance can be struck at some point beneficial to both 'systems', and I think it's important for generations to come to have the freedom to pursue and discover either as they will and want.
As far as the hope or not that banks and institutions buy in... I do not care, it is not my choice or issue, it is theirs, or more precisely it is the choice of each and every individual person responsible and with a defined/contracted role in making that choice. Blockchain helped us find solutions free from centralized structures and corruptible 3rd parties... It could only be a detriment to such a discovery and gift as we have found and helped build to deny it to any other person(s) interested in experiencing the same.