To apply such numbers, you have to know about them.
There are a lot of things you have to learn about Bitcoin before you can try to estimate the chance of success.
Also don't trust what economists say xD
Topic: Why is Bitcoin so cheap? - page 7. (Read 9560 times)
Economists say that in an effective market price of an item is it's future utility times probability of it happen times our time preference. That is if chances of Bitcoin trading for 500K$ in 10 years time are, say, 50% and we value a dollar today twice as much as a dollar in 10 years time, then Bitcoin today should be trading at 125,000$ apiece. Still it's trading thousand times cheaper. Why?
I can see two explanations:
-We estimate chances of Bitcoin's success around 0.1%
-We prefer a dollar today to 500 dollars in 10 years time.
Both these explanations are obviously untrue. Then why is BTC so cheap?
Edit: fixed typos
I can see two explanations:
-We estimate chances of Bitcoin's success around 0.1%
-We prefer a dollar today to 500 dollars in 10 years time.
Both these explanations are obviously untrue. Then why is BTC so cheap?
Edit: fixed typos
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