Why is BTC now ~$8,780? Simple... | Bitcointalksearch.org

Capt00

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Quote from: Fatunad on November 09, 2019, 11:15:07 PM

It does really work that way?
If price depends on the hashrate then there should be a lot of people knows where the price is going and a lot of people do not lost their investments due to the unpredictable price movement. I really do hope its just that easy to predict the btc price.

If it does then a lot people will be able to predict the price accurately, so it means that bitcoin price isn't unpredictable if its because of the hashrate. Bitcoin price is due to many factors, may it include the hash rate in mining but it is not the basis of the price, I think that it was just a coincidence. I know a lot of people are trying to determine what really is the reason of the price movements but always remember that bitcoin isn't as easy as what most people think and there are other factors that can affect the price.

Darooghe

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In my opinion hash power follows price, not the other way around. If it were the other way around, the Bitmain could for example just create their own coin and get rich by putting all mining power behind it. but what would happen instead people would not assign much value to that coin resulting in Bitmain paying more for electricity than what their mined coins are worth. Instead of mining at a loss the miners would drop the hashrate until the equilibrium of coin price and electricity cost is reached. So hashrate naturally follows price.

Bossian

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Quote from: Kasabus on November 14, 2019, 04:22:12 PM

This is just like the same, why is BTC price is at $10k? Does it keep asking why it happens? Why there is a drop?

Because this is all about market fluctuations and we are facing it all the time, thus never wonder why we have such changes every sec or every minute.
For we can't hold the price any longer, we can't still at the top all the time, either we like it or not the market will turning up and down depending on the market flows.

A price of 10k can easily be explained by short term trends.

If we go to 10k again it won't matter much because we will still be below the strong resistance around 12.4k. We can certainly go back to 10k and if we do I would suggest to sell and wait to see what happens after that.

Bossian

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The price is this way just because of technical analysis, plain and simple. It's been the case since early 2018, the price has always been predicted by technical analysis. Price manipulation can still happen but it's useless to talk about it. Unless we break a strong resistance or go below a strong support, the price will just be decided by traders, and now the trend of traders is clearly bearish.

Kasabus

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This is just like the same, why is BTC price is at $10k? Does it keep asking why it happens? Why there is a drop?

Because this is all about market fluctuations and we are facing it all the time, thus never wonder why we have such changes every sec or every minute.
For we can't hold the price any longer, we can't still at the top all the time, either we like it or not the market will turning up and down depending on the market flows.

Hamphser

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Quote from: d3nz on November 13, 2019, 05:40:49 AM

That's a great analysis but still not the answer i think. We really don't know on why the market is going down but still a great opportunity to take advantage of this crisis because we can buy and wait until the value goes sky high.

And buying now is really good for a long term holding because we know that the price is increasingly every year and the only reason on why it goes down or dump really hard because of the FOMO and it really affects all and even the altcoin value.

OP just made up a story based on his own perspective but that's not really the real answer. A lot of factors that we might have to consider here to know exactly the price of bitcoin and it is not because of the hash rate that OP has been talking about. Prices are easily manipulated by the whales and most people were following every trend of it.

Ryker1

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Well, reducing the hash rate will we can determine that the price of Bitcoin was dragging down and when it is pumping up in the market it also increases the hash rate. But those big whales have a power in those every changing the price. The unpredictable fluctuation was depended on those who are playing in the market, they know much better how to play and get profited by controlling the demand and the supply. I hope they will get tired soon in doing that when the price goes up.

el kaka22

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There are a lot bigger whales compared to miners but they are really high up there. You know why miners are really whales? Because, not only that they can change the price but also they could also change the difficulty and hash rate which really is a difficult thing to achieve by all the other people. Hence that is why they are huge whales, not because they have a ton of bitcoin, which they do have but they are also in power of controlling hash rate and difficulty and transactions.

I really dislike them but I can't deny their powers, they are really strong. For example if there is a whale who has 100k bitcoins he could sell them but that means while he is trying to manipulate they are losing their power whereas miners could buy and sell and they will still have their mining power.

BitHodler

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Quote from: d3nz on November 13, 2019, 05:40:49 AM

And buying now is really good for a long term holding because we know that the price is increasingly every year and the only reason on why it goes down or dump really hard because of the FOMO and it really affects all and even the altcoin value.

If people like the aspect of this market where the prices pump for a whole year, they also should accept that prices can't go up endlessly and for that reason will correct in a similar fashion.

We went through a year long bull market in 2017 and went through a year long bear market in 2018. I think that we are currently replicating the same cycle, but in a quicker fashion this time, which should make moon boys happy.

Is it a great time to buy today as a long term hold? It might be, but you shouldn't expect the price to go up from here.... we could still see some form of a correction and lower low before we go up.

audaciousbeing

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Quote from: cryptoangel on November 10, 2019, 08:40:22 AM

Quote from: fabiorem on November 10, 2019, 06:48:02 AM

Miners are the biggest whales, because they create bitcoin from electrical power. They need to distribute it, hence why the price tanks between the crash and the halving.

I don't think miners are biggest whales in Bitcoin because current scenario more than 85 percentage of Bitcoin is circulation so traders are the main reason for pump and dump. Normally most of the investors are concentrate trading platform so once they sell continuously it will drop gradually or else everyone concentrate buying the Bitcoin it will going to moon.

Based on the analysis of 85% in distribution, it just mean the happenings is dependent on activities of the market but really the problem is the people who follow the trend of activities and used that to make their own investment decisions. I have also seen panics happen to the detriment of everybody. Blaming the miners is just way over the line as an excuse for someone else to take the blame when in the real sense they are just some group of people following the trend of the market and wanting to make decent returns from it.

d3nz

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That's a great analysis but still not the answer i think. We really don't know on why the market is going down but still a great opportunity to take advantage of this crisis because we can buy and wait until the value goes sky high.

And buying now is really good for a long term holding because we know that the price is increasingly every year and the only reason on why it goes down or dump really hard because of the FOMO and it really affects all and even the altcoin value.

Dart18

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I hope that is right. Next time we wont see a lot of graphs and some calculation theories if this is the case.
Who doesn't want it to be that easy?

But as I see to the comments above me, it looks like you got it all wrong.
There is what we call demand. Even with the price of any item out there, if it is just calculated with just as simple as that then we dont need people to buy it at any number.
Let us put turkey as an example. This December there will be a lot of orders of it because of the holidays so the price will be soaring.
That is demand, and bitcoin have that feature.

EdenHazard

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Quote from: bitbunnny on November 11, 2019, 09:29:22 AM

Why are people so surprised with current price range? It's the level the price was few weeks ago. Or does everyone really think once the price starts to rise there is no coming back? I always wonder if only Bitcoin users are so naive and under educated or every other investors in other types of investment ( like gold and stock exchange) are the same?

OP is just trying to correlating the mining process.. rewards to the current price mathematically.

While there's no way to do it technically, we are in the free market where things turned out non fixed pattern, the price will always move in unpredictable pattern due none of us has the power to fixed it at certain point.
That's what makes bitcoin beautiful, it's completely a form of freedom where we are not under anybody's control unlike stocks market and any other centralized financial market.

coinfinger

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I will we can always have the real reason why bitcoin have the value it has at that time, but I think many of us are just trying our possible best to find an answer to it. Your analysis looks great but I doubt if that is what will make the value of bitcoin to increase. For the activities of miners to increase, the demand of bitcoin must also increase, and for the demand of bitcoin to increase, there are things that must contribute to it, it could be because of market manipulation, it could be because of adoption and any other reason.

I don’t know how this hash rate has become a factor to predict the value of bitcoin, but some of the one that I have seen as not really tallied at all and I just think that it does not really work the way that you see it.

bitbunnny

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Why are people so surprised with current price range? It's the level the price was few weeks ago. Or does everyone really think once the price starts to rise there is no coming back? I always wonder if only Bitcoin users are so naive and under educated or every other investors in other types of investment ( like gold and stock exchange) are the same?

BrewMaster

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Quote from: 1Referee on November 10, 2019, 02:26:51 PM

Quote from: SapphireSpire on November 09, 2019, 08:39:01 PM

Recent hashrate was 82 EHS, therefore:

Recent? Like a month ago? The hashrate over a greater number of blocks hasn't gone under 90 eh/s.

The hashrate you are referring to is measured over a low number of blocks, which currently has jumped to 100 eh/s, so your 82 eh/s figure is not accurate anymore, just like how my 100 eh/s figure won't be accurate anymore in the forthcoming hours. That alone makes calculating the price versus the not accurate hashrate figure not a good foundation to build on to determine what a "fair" price is.

Did we forget what happened last year? People were so confident that miners needed the $6000 level to operate profitably, that they assumed $6000 was the bottom. It couldn't go below $6000. Well, it did and it went below $6000 a lot.

about 2 months ago people went crazy about a simple swing in the hashrate charts and some of them even panicked in the market and sold their coins for no reason! just because a poorly written block explorer had a bug!
i created a topic about hashrate and how hashrate, how it is calculated in reality versus what these sites do and why that is bad. it got buried under spam in main board though. here is the link https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/in-case-you-didnt-know-what-hashrate-is-and-how-it-is-calculated-5187499

Taskford

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Quote from: Doell on November 11, 2019, 08:44:54 AM

Quote from: karanggatak on November 10, 2019, 11:58:30 PM

I think this is not a matter of hashrate. bitcoin has high volatility so we don't need to worry or be confused with the current decline. after yesterday it dropped to $ 8,800 today bitcoin pumps again to $ 9,000. bitcoin is always like this fluctuating and this can be used as a good opportunity to be able to make a profit. I never worry when bitcoin goes down because I'm sure bitcoin will pump even higher. and in my opinion the decline yesterday was because bitcoin was correcting the market..

yes in fact the price of bitcoin has always been fluctuating and if do not want to take risks it will not be profitable ,demand and supply are factors that will grow the price but it would be better if more people adopted bitcoin to be used in real payments such as past pizza stories that will expand the network interest in the market

Many people got inspired for pizza stories but actually there's nothing it can do today since in the first place the Bitcoin at that time is almost no value and today we are at expensive state and provably if we can gather more people who's willing to stake then might we will see again those golden days what 2017 brings. But today for sure this current scenario is natural even of correction but hopefully soon we can see the price pumping so hard.

Doell

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Quote from: karanggatak on November 10, 2019, 11:58:30 PM

I think this is not a matter of hashrate. bitcoin has high volatility so we don't need to worry or be confused with the current decline. after yesterday it dropped to $ 8,800 today bitcoin pumps again to $ 9,000. bitcoin is always like this fluctuating and this can be used as a good opportunity to be able to make a profit. I never worry when bitcoin goes down because I'm sure bitcoin will pump even higher. and in my opinion the decline yesterday was because bitcoin was correcting the market..

yes in fact the price of bitcoin has always been fluctuating and if do not want to take risks it will not be profitable ,demand and supply are factors that will grow the price but it would be better if more people adopted bitcoin to be used in real payments such as past pizza stories that will expand the network interest in the market

7788bitcoin

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Quote from: SapphireSpire on November 09, 2019, 08:39:01 PM

So even at ~$8,780, it's still a little over-priced.
Miners, get your hashrate up and increase the price!

The price of bitcoin has nothing to do with the hash rate, when the price of bitcoin increases there might be more users mining and not the other way around. The price depends upon the basic principle of supply and demand and if the demand increases then the price will naturally increase and the reason why everyone is expecting a rally in bitcoin after halving is because the supply will decrease and not because the hash rate increase Tongue

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STT

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Sounds like a fair topic to consider but it wont ever be a fixed ratio when we have a free market and so much of our BTC market is people speculating with many varied reasons for speculating in their particular currency. Its probably worth graphing this hash rate vs the price and how that develops over time, maybe it gives some indictor of relative value but since BTC does adjust also I guess its never going to fixed or forcing a price to occur.
Reminds me alot of the ratio for oil to gold prices which does make alot of sense as gold requires so much energy to refine it from the raw material extracted initially, the purity requires quite alot of processing usually. So over time, many decades they do find it tend to come to a certain ratio but as I remember it can double away from what is expected and its some indication of demand and growth in economies. Its possible hash ratio can be useful to keep note of also.

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