1) Everytime you consolidate your UTXOs, your total balance in BTC goes down.
Not every time. For example: testnet4 is a young network. If you are a miner, you can consolidate your coins for free:
https://mempool.space/testnet4/tx/9bab50dee590122a20a3d840d0e2d99bd495044975da8f8e5f517f347e48e7e0If you will wait instead, then you may no longer be a miner, many years later, and then you will have to pay more for consolidation. Also note, that in 2009, it was possible to send transactions for free, and get them confirmed. If some people would consolidate then, they would pay smaller transaction fees now. And note, that there were even times, when "non-standard transaction" was not a thing, so you could create some outputs then, which could be very hard to move now.
2) The chances of fees going up or down at any point in time is pretty much 50/50.
Not really. If you can see, that your mempool is empty, and you can use the minimal fee, and get things confirmed, then fees will not go down with 50% probability: they will stay there. You will not go from 1 sat/vB into 0.1 sat/vB. You will need to find some mining node with custom settings to do that.
3) Miners love it when people consolidate their inputs since that's how they get paid by people submitting transactions.
As long as the basic block reward is quite huge, compared to transaction fees, it is not that important. However, if you will wait for more halvings, then miners will run out of new coins, and you will end up in the same situation, as it is in testnet3: you can consolidate your coins at 1 sat/vB, or wait for 10 or 100 sat/vB, if not more. Choose wisely.
4) Consolidating inputs carries a risk of loss from either making a mistake and sending the bitcoin to the wrong address or being hacked.
Yeah, "moving coins is risky, so let's never move them".
why would you be so worried about the future?
Because of halvings. We are going from free transactions (2009) into only-fee-based-transactions (2140). There will be no more than 21 million coins. Also note, that 1 sat/vB is still there, and 2017 was the last time, when minimal fees were lowered, because of Segwit discount. I don't know, if people will agree to change their settings from 1 sat/vB into 0.5 sat/vB or some lower values. Because 1-4 MB block, with 1 sat/vB, simply means something like 0.01-0.04 BTC per block, forever, as long as people are willing to transact. So: do you believe, that people will agree to drop "minimum 0.01 BTC fees per block" that easily?
isn't the point of having money to not have to worry about the future?
Imagine that you do a lot of daily purchases, with cash. Using small coins, like single cents or dollars. Imagine having $1000 in $0.01 coins, and never consolidating them. See the problem? You will need a huge bag, to physically transport all of your wealth. If you never consolidate any coins, then you look like a man, walking to the store, with a huge bag of $0.01 coins, and trying to buy something for $100.
how do you do that without copying and pasting from the clipboard though?
If you support silent payments, then you can safely send your coins to the same address, and avoid address reuse, because "sp1" address will be automatically converted to the proper "bc1" address.
then i could just send all my utxos to coinbase paying 1 sat per byte anytime i want to. no matter what the current network rate is. why isn't anyone talking about that??
Because in case of real payments, there are usually at least two outputs: which means, that both the sender, and the recipient, can do CPFP in the future.
but maybe that's their problem?
Exactly, that's usually the case. However, if you are going to deposit your funds to an exchange, and then withdraw them, then don't be surprised, if your own deposited coins, will be sent back to you, and you will pay a bigger fee, because of that.