Topic: why is price of bitcoin rising these last few days ? - page 2. (Read 6860 times)

wow, you have a very active imagination.

No, I think it's partly an increased demand for a non-fiat value store (which can also increase the fundamental price of Bitcoins - it's part of my formula).  It's also an equal or larger dose of speculative bubble.

Nope.  On Nov 14, just before we hit bottom, I called it out as unusual behavior by a single trader.  This post and chart says it all:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.617950

Do you think the current price of gold is explained by an increase of merchants that accept gold in exchange for their products?

This strikes me as revisionism. 
The patterns of asks down at the $2 and $3 levels showed all indications of strong multiparty buying pressure.
'The manipulator' might be an interesting theory with regards to why certain sequences of abrupt movements occur - but you seem to be overreaching.

It doesn't matter as long as people are willing to keep putting money down to back their belief / speculation.  The miners have to be paid or the price goes down.  People have to not panic or the price goes down fast.

Mr. M had the capital to prop it up at $2, but probably not at $20.  Thus it falls back to fundamentals and speculation.  The fundamentals say we're overvalued by 1-2 orders.  Speculation gets harder the more expensive it gets.

All the things you cite are great reasons for the price to run up, but I don't see how it's going to find support once it gets up there unless the fundamentals change, specifically a sustained increase in real commerce.

Thing is, it doesnt matter. The money was there. Next time there will be two or three times as many believing in it and as said earlier, If/when this hits the press...Means more interest, means even higer price, even more press and this time its really easy to buy much easier than any stock or gold. Anyone can buy with their creditcard...
Also together with them mentioned on the Good wife et...

For the worlds first ever cryptocurrency $5 appears to be a bargain.

It's very rare that I'll apply "artificial" to a free market, but in this case it was.  The way down was driven by a very diverse group of people, but the very bottom - the $2 that we bounced off off - was a single individual who threw down a lot of money to stop the fall, followed by spending quite a bit to pitch it back up again.  It was easily visible in the charts I posted at the time.

The price is back in the hands of the larger market now, but the bottom was not the action of a fairly diverse set of humans.

When shit-head groups like Anonymous and /b/ comes back to bitcoin "r3prez1nt1n", that will be the clear sign to exit.

My observation about technical analysis is that sometimes it works so well that the outcomes cannot be anything other than the results of a self fulfilling prophecy. This is nowhere clearer than when one observes price movements near values that conform to various ratios, famously the Golden Mean, long a favorite in all manner of numerological superstitions. Such magic numbers are easily incorporated in the algorithms of trading robots, meatbots included.

Elliot's ideas about patterns of rising and falling sentiment do seem to have some validity when applied to human behavior, but the baroque miasma he built can be used to assert anything at any time, which is a useful property of successful tools of financial advice: Always Have An Explanation, No Matter The Circumstances Or What You May Have Said Previously

Magic is always a big hit with True Believers, the title of Elliot's last work on the subject should tell you everything you need to know about it's appeal: "Nature’s Laws: The Secret of the Universe".

Speaking of the Music Of The Spheres, here's a quote featured in the Wikipedia article "Elliot Wave Principle":

**
Technical analyst David Aronson wrote:

    The Elliott Wave Principle, as popularly practiced, is not a legitimate theory, but a story, and a compelling one that is eloquently told by Robert Prechter. The account is especially persuasive because EWP has the seemingly remarkable ability to fit any segment of market history down to its most minute fluctuations. I contend this is made possible by the method's loosely defined rules and the ability to postulate a large number of nested waves of varying magnitude. This gives the Elliott analyst the same freedom and flexibility that allowed pre-Copernican astronomers to explain all observed planet movements even though their underlying theory of an Earth-centered universe was wrong.
**

IMO, technical analysis has little to do with bitcoin, look at penny stocks if you want to understand the past year or so, bitcoin is a replay of a rigged game that's been around almost as long as the world's oldest confidence scheme, religion.

It'll be much easier to answer in a few days: There'll be press coverage because price is rising. Price is rising because there is press coverage.

It is a self-fulfilling prophecy to a certain degree.  There is also a lot of psychology involved.  How does the chart make you feel?  That will play into how you trade.  Nothing is foolproof.

LOL!
I'm skeptical of technical analysis as well. Has it ever been proven to work? I mean, wouldn't it be simple to compare guesses derived from technical analysis with random guesses, and see if there's a difference?

It seems to me that the information (time stamp, price and volume) on which technical analysis is performed, is such a tiny fraction of all the information that influences whether people buy or sell that predictions based on it are next to useless.

Oh yeah, never seen anything like it before except when someone rattles their keys to distract an infant. Not too bad a start for a neophyte, you can always score extra shill points by posting something like

"SHORTS ARE GETTING PWNED!"

I don't know if you've noticed, but the trend has been moving upwards since nov 14.

That's Nov 14,15,16,17,18,19,20,21,22,23,24,25,26,27,28,29,30 Dec 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20,21,22,23,24,25,26,27,28,29,30,31

that it's been increasing.


This is definitely a group effort.

Interesting. It's just like no one here has ever seen trading in a microcap security manipulated by a large player or two.

Certainly the timing of the recent price moves isn't tied to real world economic influences. Current conditions more resemble the sort of activity one sometimes sees when large portions of world security markets are closed for local holidays and such. Historically forex traders in Japan have been big on such opportunities.

Not that bitcoin has much in common with forex either. The bitcoin market is simply too tiny for principles of market behavior to be applied. To understand bitcoin trading, the best real world analogs are to be found in the perennially cheesy and fraudulent world of penny stocks.

So, in the spirit of the inane prattle and overblown hyperbole that is traditional in the world of pennies, let us turn to the standard phrasebook. I'll start but I'll leave a few just in case anyone else has any personal favorites they would like to add.

1. Time to back up the truck!
2. The train is leaving the station, better get on board now!
3. BUY BUY BUY BUY!
4. Anyone can see that this is a 1-D-10-T sub-wavelet formation marked by a Fibonacci target reversal pattern with bird entrail confirmations. It's time to BUY BUY BUY BUY!
5. This rocket is headed for the moon!
6. If God had not meant for them to be shorn, he would not have made them sheep.

Whoops, the last one is for internal use only 

Feel free to add your own, there are plenty of examples to be found on this forum.

Yes, better KYC procedures would be necessary.
The interesting thing is that when paying in bitcoins, customers have an alternative to PayPal. As far as I can tell, if PayPal were to adopt bitcoins as a currency, users would have no reason to use PayPal if they're paying someone they trust. Why would they pay a 1-2% fee if they know they won't get screwed? They would only need PayPal if they're not sure whether the service or good they're paying for will live up to the seller's description. This causes a larger share of the PayPal payments in bitcoins to be connected with fraud, thus raising the fee PayPal needs to charge in order to cover unrecoverable chargebacks, thus making it even more unattractive to use PayPal unless you might get screwed, which in turn raises the fees again, and so on and so forth until no one wants to use PayPal.

The real solution, IMO, is setting up an OTC insurance site of sorts, where someone who wishes to buy an item or service can buy an insurance in case the item or service doesn't live up to the description. An insurance exchange of sorts, where some people request insurance for a specific purchase, and others can make an offer on insuring this specific purchase.

This sums it up exactly.


The people who sold $500,000 worth of btc at $2, $3, and $4  now have $500,000 in their pocket.

When they see that btc isn't going to go down below $2,$3, $4, again, they're faced with the following decision:
Either
a) keep my money and leave the bitcoin for a verrrry long time hoping it'll fail again (unlikely)
or
b) reinvest my money on the faith that it's going up and up a lot more. (investing will put $500,000 back on the market driving up prices even more (awesome!)

Next thing you know, $5, $6, and $7 would be a dream.

Tide goes in tide goes out.

it really would depend on how much Paypal charges for tx's in btc.  if they try and maintain what they charge now, i don't think it'll survive.  they'd also have to increase their level of KYC on the seller side to limit abuse.