Topic: Why MP is your God. - page 13. (Read 38099 times)

Something to keep in mind whenever someone bring up past prediction performance is that distinguishing between luck and skill is very difficult.

Our god needs a better taylor. Why you are wearing your grand fathers, clothez? LOL  

Consider a group of 10,000 investment managers whose investment success is comparable to that of a fair coin toss. Each manager has a 50-50 chance of making or losing 10% in any year.  At the end of each year the losing managers are thrown out of the game.

After the first year 5,000 managers have made money and the rest have bailed out.  After seven years there will still be 78 managers who have made money continuously, purely on the basis of random chance. Their portfolios are up a total of almost 95% after 7 years.  If these folks then go off and start their own hedge funds, there’s no way to know that their apparent genius was merely luck, and they’ll probably attract a lot of investors.

Now suppose that instead of giving the managers an even chance of making or losing money, we start with a pool of 10,000 relatively incompetent managers. These individuals are more likely to lose money than to make it: they each have a 45% chance of making a profit and a 55% chance of losing money.  At the end there are still 37 fund managers who have made 10% a year for seven years. Even though this group is more likely to lose money than to make it, a few will still run up impressive gains and develop reputations as hot managers.

This demonstrates that if there are lots of fund managers, a certain number of them can look like geniuses when in fact they are merely “lucky,” even if, in reality, they’re moderately incompetent! As Taleb notes, knowing that a manager has an extraordinary investment track records doesn’t tell you anything: “without knowing how many managers out there have tried and failed, we will not be able to assess the validity of the track record.” If the manager population were small, a good track record would be impressive.  But in fact, if you count all the money managers in the U.S. alone, 10,000 underestimates the reality.

Your questions are broken, in that they make mistaken assumptions about the world which renders them unanswerable. That you don't realize this is what makes you stupid. It's not a matter of me calling you so, it's a matter of you being so.

I just asked two questions. Be a dear and answer them. If you do not know the answers to my questions, simply have the courage to admit you'll fail to answer them. If you fail to answer the questions I will not call you stupid.

You may be too stupid to understand [...]

Hey, talk enough BS and eventually you will have a list of situations where you guessed correctly. You see a lot of the same in the world of trading.

All I see here is a thread where OP asks for ass-kissing

There's a reason why the ignore button is bright orange

This will be my last reply here, I feel bad enough for bumping this thread once

Do you get payed extra to post this thread?

should we also post a list of things where you were wrong (like AM, for instance?)

1. Why did MP tell people to stop buying at 100 when the price was about to reach 266? Gods are supposed to be all-knowing...

2. Did MP tell people to sell at 266?

I. The 100 dollar miracle.

On April 3rd, MP says BTC is not worth over 100, and tells people to stop buying.

Our god needs a better taylor. Why you are wearing your grand fathers, clothez? LOL  

That would make MPOE-PR my goddess.

*snipped arrogance*


*snipped arrogance*