Even what you suggested should have been done a few days ago, why no one is posting anything about it?
yes,it is a pity we don`t have a whistleblower 
Topic: why MtGox (in)solvency cannot be calculated from the blockchain? - page 2. (Read 5760 times)
February 21, 2014, 12:36:45 PM
February 21, 2014, 12:03:21 PM
Couldn't you just check for duplicate transactions with different hashes? Maybe the ones that aren't processed are not generally recorded, but somewhere perhaps they are.
Yes, but that only finds out the stolen coins of this heist. MtGox could be insolvent since 2011.
Even what you suggested should have been done a few days ago, why no one is posting anything about it?
February 21, 2014, 12:01:31 PM
Couldn't you just check for duplicate transactions with different hashes? Maybe the ones that aren't processed are not generally recorded, but somewhere perhaps they are.
February 21, 2014, 11:50:50 AM
Say you can identify a lot of MtGox addresses. Now a large sum goes to a new address. There is no way to tell the difference between this new address being a MtGox cold storage or a criminal's address.
To identify the cold storage address:
1) The cold stroage address can be identified if the same address transfers funds back to MtGox in regular operation.
2) If cold-storage uses different address to send than to receive, then try this: the criminal would not use big transactions to call attention when MtGox wallet can repeatedly reissue him small amounts automatically. The criminal have a large sum of transactions, not a large transation.
I also expect someone reply saying there is no way to tell criminal's address from normal-customer's address. Well, it is not necessary, because you only need in/out amount to find out the amount in possession by MtGox. Besides, you already know the criminal uses repeated transactions of the same amount, few customers would do that, so the criminal's address is not a mystery like its owner's identity.
February 21, 2014, 11:40:31 AM
I was waiting for someone to calculate it for a few days, and no one did, means it is impossible. But I thought it was possible.
1. Identify MtGox addresses. I remember someone did this before, academic work.
2. Calculate all the coins in and out. The amount-into-mtgox minus amount-out-of-mtgox is the coins in possession by MtGox.
3. Calculate the current market cap in MtGox. If market cap is greater than the coins MtGox possesses, they must be insolvent, because the market is trading coins that ain't there. If not, they are either solvent or insolvent, where market cap divided by coins-in-possession can give you percentage of coins being traded, which hints the solvence/insolvence: e.g. if 90% of the coins are being traded on the market, then some of the coins ain't there.
Perhaps this calculation is not possible, e.g. because MtGox adopted some anti-trace measurement some time in the past years. Then, is it possible to start an alliance that requires each member exchanges to publish their addresses, so that a 3rd party can verify the solvence of exchanges in the alliance - and notify them if small leaks are found.
If it is indeeded calculatable, anyone who did it must have tried to do it to other exchanges as well.
P.S. I also wonder why it takes so long for MtGox to find someone stealing their coins. It is easily spotted by checking the sum of wallets against the book. My guess is that wallet's sum is bugged, so it didn't report the leak.
1. Identify MtGox addresses. I remember someone did this before, academic work.
2. Calculate all the coins in and out. The amount-into-mtgox minus amount-out-of-mtgox is the coins in possession by MtGox.
3. Calculate the current market cap in MtGox. If market cap is greater than the coins MtGox possesses, they must be insolvent, because the market is trading coins that ain't there. If not, they are either solvent or insolvent, where market cap divided by coins-in-possession can give you percentage of coins being traded, which hints the solvence/insolvence: e.g. if 90% of the coins are being traded on the market, then some of the coins ain't there.
Perhaps this calculation is not possible, e.g. because MtGox adopted some anti-trace measurement some time in the past years. Then, is it possible to start an alliance that requires each member exchanges to publish their addresses, so that a 3rd party can verify the solvence of exchanges in the alliance - and notify them if small leaks are found.
If it is indeeded calculatable, anyone who did it must have tried to do it to other exchanges as well.
P.S. I also wonder why it takes so long for MtGox to find someone stealing their coins. It is easily spotted by checking the sum of wallets against the book. My guess is that wallet's sum is bugged, so it didn't report the leak.
Say you can identify a lot of MtGox addresses. Now a large sum goes to a new address from these addresses. There is no way to tell the difference between this new address being a MtGox cold storage or a criminal's address.
February 21, 2014, 11:29:04 AM
I was waiting for someone to calculate it for a few days, and no one did, means it is impossible. But I thought it was possible.
1. Identify MtGox addresses. I remember someone did this before, academic work. Or blockchain's Andreas knows it.
2. Calculate all the coins in and out. The amount-into-mtgox minus amount-out-of-mtgox is the coins in possession by MtGox.
3. Calculate the current market cap in MtGox. If market cap is greater than the coins MtGox possesses, they must be insolvent, because the market is trading coins that ain't there. If not, they are either solvent or insolvent, where market cap divided by coins-in-possession can give you percentage of coins being traded, which hints the solvence/insolvence: e.g. if 90% of the coins are being traded on the market, then some of the coins ain't there.
Perhaps this calculation is not possible, e.g. because MtGox adopted some anti-trace measurement some time in the past years. Then, is it possible to start an alliance that requires each member exchanges to publish their addresses, so that a 3rd party can verify the solvence of exchanges in the alliance - and notify them if small leaks are found.
If it is indeeded calculatable, anyone who did it must have tried to do it to other exchanges as well.
P.S. I also wonder why it takes so long for MtGox to find someone stealing their coins. It is easily spotted by checking the sum of wallets against the book. My guess is that wallet's sum is bugged, so it didn't report the leak.
1. Identify MtGox addresses. I remember someone did this before, academic work. Or blockchain's Andreas knows it.
2. Calculate all the coins in and out. The amount-into-mtgox minus amount-out-of-mtgox is the coins in possession by MtGox.
3. Calculate the current market cap in MtGox. If market cap is greater than the coins MtGox possesses, they must be insolvent, because the market is trading coins that ain't there. If not, they are either solvent or insolvent, where market cap divided by coins-in-possession can give you percentage of coins being traded, which hints the solvence/insolvence: e.g. if 90% of the coins are being traded on the market, then some of the coins ain't there.
Perhaps this calculation is not possible, e.g. because MtGox adopted some anti-trace measurement some time in the past years. Then, is it possible to start an alliance that requires each member exchanges to publish their addresses, so that a 3rd party can verify the solvence of exchanges in the alliance - and notify them if small leaks are found.
If it is indeeded calculatable, anyone who did it must have tried to do it to other exchanges as well.
P.S. I also wonder why it takes so long for MtGox to find someone stealing their coins. It is easily spotted by checking the sum of wallets against the book. My guess is that wallet's sum is bugged, so it didn't report the leak.
Jump to: