its been explained a million times that if you coerce people to lock funds up for 3 months and not make any transaction onchain... they no longer need to actively have a fullnode because they no longer care about what happens onchain because the lock is doing its job
people using LN are not carrying their desktop pc to starbucks to monitor the blockchain. they are using phone apps. meaning again. not having a full node active
thus LN causes less decentralisation as in the end the only fullnodes left become the custodial services and 'factory' services of LN
What makes you think that people will shut down their existing full nodes (think the ones that are active on Bitnodes right now) to run an LN channel? If anything, it's going to be the new users who only run LN channels, not OG's who were already running full nodes before mass LN channel creation by other users.
i am an OG in 2012-2015 i was fullnode 24-7. but then as the scaling debates heated up and the merchants accepting btc direct started decreasing.. i started to realise i was not doing many payments a day/week.
now i just run a full node now and again..
only the custodial services and merchants would remain full noders 24/7/365.
again custodians and SERVICES that centralise liquidity and have customers. would be the full nodes
but USERs that just want to spend their value will lock up their funds. and then play around on litewallet phone apps.. why.. because carrying around a desktop for the full node is heavy. the locks mean no need to monitor the blockchain every minute. and not spending funds on chain mean no need to watch the blockchain for new income all the time. so people will see no point in downloading something they are not using hourly/daily.
so here is the question reversed onto you
newbie average joe just getting into crypto why would they go full node? if they are being told the way forward is microchannel altnets
think about it. most exchanges will offer channel opening facility with balance instead of withdrawing to a mainnet. to then lock to then open a channel...
so most new users will just do that for convenience and most exchanges would sway users into that convenient way.
so ask yourself who would choose to start a full node when all the utopian altnetters are pushing hard telling people to not use bitcoins main net
reducing the mainnet daily utility means people wont use or full node bitcoin daily. its simple logic
oh and i just done a quick search on bitnodes -
your request to run the scenario out of bitnodes list of nodes..
soo i did
seen the number of nodes.. and they are listed by most recently seen
clicked the US and seen the 37 pages of listings. i went to the middle page 18
and would you guess it. half the US nodes have only been online for 6 days
https://bitnodes.io/nodes/?page=18&q=United%20States.. not weeks or months. just 6 days
heck. i checked page 37.. the longest any of its nodes were connected is 2 weeks
https://bitnodes.io/nodes/?page=37&q=United%20Statesi can spot a few issues. which is why maybe best not for you to use bitnodes as a scenario(their OG age is 2weeks, thus not favouring the scenario in your favour from the start)