even at a 10:10 or a 10:20 people are not willing to bet. the main reason is logically people feel that if something sounds too good, said by someone they just met and dont know, there must be a hidden trick behind it where there is more risk at play that they have not been told about
people only try bitcoin once they have done more research.. rather than hearing a guys investment idea 30 seconds after meeting them
in short.
dont introduce bitcoin in some investment sales pitch. teach them about the functions and features that bitcoin offers that meet the persons interests. explain it in ways they will understand and then explain if bitcoin is at a value dip or a hype tip so they can make a better judgement of desire vs risk of bitcoin the utility and bitcoin the investment
Topic: Why people don't adopt Bitcoin - they don't understand Expected Value - page 3. (Read 394 times)
February 10, 2023, 09:20:11 PM
February 10, 2023, 09:08:19 PM
The video talks about objectively favorable results. With Bitcoin the possible outcomes are unknown. Expected Value has little to do with this.
February 10, 2023, 08:01:21 PM
I don't think that's an appropriate approach to compare to bitcoin adoption. The fact is that nobody loses anything (in terms of ownership) even in a minus portfolio condition.
I'm interested in quoting one of the responses in the video, "I'm thinking more about what I lose than what I win". How about a little fairer, changing the conditions of "the coin will be flipped a certain number of times so it wins your choice", like the way holding works.
I'm interested in quoting one of the responses in the video, "I'm thinking more about what I lose than what I win". How about a little fairer, changing the conditions of "the coin will be flipped a certain number of times so it wins your choice", like the way holding works.
February 10, 2023, 07:53:26 PM
Yes but in the video its total bet 
If they are wrong their pay 10$ if their guess was right they take the 10$ its a pure gamble in my opinion even tho is 50:50 chance. They cant predict the value. But one of the reasons why people doesn't like bitcoin is volatility but even tho their gues is wrong they still get the value of bitcoin until it reaches zero right.
In my opinion who know bitcoin must know at least a little knowledge and decide if they want to their money on.
If they are wrong their pay 10$ if their guess was right they take the 10$ its a pure gamble in my opinion even tho is 50:50 chance. They cant predict the value. But one of the reasons why people doesn't like bitcoin is volatility but even tho their gues is wrong they still get the value of bitcoin until it reaches zero right.In my opinion who know bitcoin must know at least a little knowledge and decide if they want to their money on.
February 10, 2023, 07:42:21 PM
Hmmm i don't know, but i feel if that video were to be done in my locality, i bet you will probably see more going for the first time risk rather than reasoning the losses that is involved in it. Same feat applys to the adoption of bitcoin in my locality most people just like taking the chance of new means of possible making profits even if it involves them not knowing much about the platforms. I guess that's why bitcoin adoption and awareness is growing massively in my area.
February 10, 2023, 07:15:45 PM
I agree there is a strong psychological aspect on the adoption of Bitcoin,specially by those who do not necessarily share the core values of decentralization and deflation.
It is easy to be aware of volatility and crashes as you said, but it is harder to realize at the same time that for a successful asset to thrive in long term, it has to survive several crashes and bear cycles. It it something that even happens with traditional assets like stocks.
Still, I expect the adoption to continue increase in the future as more people get informed and abandon their fear.
It is easy to be aware of volatility and crashes as you said, but it is harder to realize at the same time that for a successful asset to thrive in long term, it has to survive several crashes and bear cycles. It it something that even happens with traditional assets like stocks.
Still, I expect the adoption to continue increase in the future as more people get informed and abandon their fear.
February 10, 2023, 06:35:45 PM
First, check this video - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vBX-KulgJ1o, it's a social experiment where the guy offers random people on the street to take a bet where they have a decent advantage, and almost all people refuse it. Why? Because they don't know math and can't calculate that the expected value of such bet is big and positive. Instead they are being guided by psychology - human mind feels negative emotions more strongly than the positive, and negative memories are stronger than the positive. Fear of losing is stronger than the desire to profit.
This is one of the reasons why Bitcoin adoption is so low. Everyone is aware of volatility, of big rallies and big crashes. Avoiding big risks is the default course of action for most people, even if big risks have positive expected value.
This is one of the reasons why Bitcoin adoption is so low. Everyone is aware of volatility, of big rallies and big crashes. Avoiding big risks is the default course of action for most people, even if big risks have positive expected value.
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