Why the blood bath - my opinion. - page 2.

Eternu

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Quote from: Wookii on February 02, 2018, 04:17:52 AM

Hello everyone!

So as most of you probably have already seen, we have another big blood bath, BTC hitting 8000$, not even talking about the altcoins. So what is happening? Well in my opinion, it is combination of two factors.

In the last few days, there was a giant FUD about India banning cryptocurrencies. It was a misinterpretation of the statement from India finance minister Arun Jaitley. He has said the following:

Quote

“The government does not recognize cryptocurrency as legal tender or coin and will take all measures to eliminate the use of these cryptoassets in financing illegitimate activities or as part of the payments system.”

Mainstream media then started the with-hunt and spreading the FUD of India banning cryptocurrencies. This had great affect on the price and got the BTC under 10K, hitting support line at 9000. But today, we are hitting the 8000 support line, why is that? Well, there comes the second factor.

We are closing to the Chinese Lunar New Year! Why is that a factor? Well, because most of Asia celebrate it and it is one of the biggest, if not the biggest event there. Quite a lot of people from Asia working overboard will come home to celebrate with their families. And what do they need? Money. And a lot of it, as Chinese New Year is the biggest spending spree in Asia. So when they see the FUD about India and the BTC going down, they will panic sell as they can't afford to lose any more or they would not have money for big spendings. And also it is not so long ago we have had the Korea FUD about BAN of crypto...

There is also the third factor. People see that governments are actively trying to regulate crypto markets. Some of them panic sell, some of them decide they have already pocket filled and some of them simply lose the trust...

In my opinion, combination of those factors led to this blood bath. I might be right, I might be completely wrong. What is your opinion?

Link to the article explaining India FUD here:
https://cointelegraph.com/news/india-bitcoin-prices-drop-as-media-misinterprets-govts-regulation-speech

What you have said is highly logical, and i agree with it. I was wondering my self why so high drop in bitcoins price, and why so sudden. But i think you have made really good post about those questions.

All of those things are really important for bitcoin community and bitcoin it self, but i think that main reason why bitcoins price went down is panic selling. As we know from past events, panic selling can do quite a damage to bitcoins price. Because of so high number of newbies in cryoticurrency world panic is common thing. It will not be long before people understand that there is no need for panic, and in that moment price will start rising again.

pawanjain

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While the points you stated are quite true to some extent, I believe there are many reasons why Bitcoin is keeping on going down. Bitcoin has been going down because there were many FUDs and negative news related to cryptocurrencies coming up one after the other. The Korea FUD, the China ban, India ban, Facebook ban, negative news from the media etc... were just coming up one after another which resulted Bitcoin to keep on going down.

styca

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Quote from: Wookii on February 02, 2018, 04:17:52 AM

Hello everyone!

So as most of you probably have already seen, we have another big blood bath, BTC hitting 8000$, not even talking about the altcoins. So what is happening? Well in my opinion, it is combination of two factors.

In the last few days, there was a giant FUD about India banning cryptocurrencies. It was a misinterpretation of the statement from India finance minister Arun Jaitley. He has said the following:

Quote

“The government does not recognize cryptocurrency as legal tender or coin and will take all measures to eliminate the use of these cryptoassets in financing illegitimate activities or as part of the payments system.”

Mainstream media then started the with-hunt and spreading the FUD of India banning cryptocurrencies. This had great affect on the price and got the BTC under 10K, hitting support line at 9000. But today, we are hitting the 8000 support line, why is that? Well, there comes the second factor.

We are closing to the Chinese Lunar New Year! Why is that a factor? Well, because most of Asia celebrate it and it is one of the biggest, if not the biggest event there. Quite a lot of people from Asia working overboard will come home to celebrate with their families. And what do they need? Money. And a lot of it, as Chinese New Year is the biggest spending spree in Asia. So when they see the FUD about India and the BTC going down, they will panic sell as they can't afford to lose any more or they would not have money for big spendings. And also it is not so long ago we have had the Korea FUD about BAN of crypto...

There is also the third factor. People see that governments are actively trying to regulate crypto markets. Some of them panic sell, some of them decide they have already pocket filled and some of them simply lose the trust...

In my opinion, combination of those factors led to this blood bath. I might be right, I might be completely wrong. What is your opinion?

Link to the article explaining India FUD here:
https://cointelegraph.com/news/india-bitcoin-prices-drop-as-media-misinterprets-govts-regulation-speech

In my opinion, these are all factors that triggered the bloodbath, but really we were waiting for one because the December almost vertical price rise was clearly unsustainable, and the market just needed any excuse to correct.

And then once the fall started, it was massively amplified by all the newcomers who bought in during the December rush. I think these were inexperienced people unfamiliar with crypto volatility, and desparately trying to cut their losses. And then obviously each time one of these people sold the price fell farther, drawing in more sells from newcomers. Meanwhile more experienced traders could see what was happening, and a nice opportunity to short their coins for big profits.

I really think that the swathe of newcomers who fuelled the December rise are the main reason that the January/early Feb fall has been so hard. Unfortunately for them, they are the biggest victims - most other people were either trading up or just holding.

Wookii

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Quote from: adolf512 on February 02, 2018, 06:49:52 AM

Maybe you are right, all the negative news background influenced the crypto currency market, but it seems to me that the news that India does not recognize bitcoin as a payment instrument is greatly overvalued.

It is... Like he did not even said they would not recognize it as a payment... All is just a misinterpretation of mass media, probably someone behind the curtain, someone who bought it at 8k and now is already in quite a lot of profit, as the blood bath has ended...

DIAH PERMATASARI

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Quote from: BTCtrader9 on February 02, 2018, 05:05:24 AM

This is what I call an amazing opportunity created by the media for everyone who was left behind in jumping on the bandwagon, now is the time to get a hold of all the coins you can at bargain price before it jumps back again to it's original price.

I think this is the effect of news issued by many governments that prohibit the use of bitcoin, whether this is purely a ban or just a setrategi to reduce the price of bitcoin so they can buy cheaply, which they will then legalize bitcoin later on

we no one knows what's behind all this
think positively Huh

zoran.drobnjak

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In a highly volatile and still comparatively small market we are witnessing phenomenon of individual market movers.
Who are they ?
Youtube-rs, Analysts, Twitter celebrities, etc.

Usually they cancel each other out by offering conflicting worldviews, but due to some reason in the past week their convergence degree was much higher than usual and we witnessed dip that is now hopefully behind us.
All of us as a community must work much harder to develop influence-resistant behavioral pattern and to ignore FUD/FOMO moving forward.

Mature market that we are aspiring to become must not allow this degree of susceptibility to individual influence.

ohlawdy

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I think that are some good points , i just don't understand why people still believe in the FUD of country's banning crypto.
Most country's seem positive about it and are looking at ways to adopt it , the media pumps out this fake news and people are believing it again.
It looks a lot like manipulation to me , and people keep falling for it.

samcrypto

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Quote from: green547 on February 02, 2018, 12:58:27 PM

All these noobs are being duped and trick by rich people. Bankers and rich investors and manipulating these markets to pick up crypto and bitcoin for peanuts.

They are being feed with a wrong information and ended up lossing money. This is a big dump I've ever experienced but I'm not on a panic mode because I see this situation in a different way, a time to buy more. After a good run last year this should be expected to happen and people should know this thing is really possible, this is how market works in the past.

AspiePhil

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We're of the same opinion. You just put it down better. February 16, that's around the Lunar New Year, we can expect to see a run up.

cryptoguy3

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I don't care about the government FUD... Tether crippling and the ramifications it could have on the overall market is the reason for worry.

Biscutard

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Quote from: South Park on February 02, 2018, 02:44:06 PM

Quote from: chiggz on February 02, 2018, 05:11:40 AM

Every dip someone comes up with some unrelated predictions to explain the market. Why don't people predict this before the dip happening? These predictions are being made from the point BTC fell to $14K from $17K, $14K to $11K, and now $11K to $8K. Its started with the CMC price confusion, Korean FUD, Lunar year, Wallstreet manipulation and now Indian FUD. Many people also say that this is the correction Bitcoin needed, which is very healthy.

I have Just gotten used to the fact that the market is always irrational and unpredictable. Nobody can time the market and it will always do the opposite you expect. It can dump with good news, and moon with bad news. This is just a random dump, we have had many before and we will have many in the future. Just Hodl Away!!

Markets can be irrational but that does not mean there are not reasons behind that behavior, to be honest I thought this drop was because of the recent Tether FUD we had lately but I suppose that explanation is as good as any other explanation, what we must decide is what to do with the current price and the only two available options are to buy or to hold.

True, and if you do have an extra pair of money you can manage to buy another bitcoin and altcoin. No matter what the news brings be strong and believe to your investments as we are the only one that can control our emotions. SO HODL!

South Park

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Quote from: chiggz on February 02, 2018, 05:11:40 AM

Every dip someone comes up with some unrelated predictions to explain the market. Why don't people predict this before the dip happening? These predictions are being made from the point BTC fell to $14K from $17K, $14K to $11K, and now $11K to $8K. Its started with the CMC price confusion, Korean FUD, Lunar year, Wallstreet manipulation and now Indian FUD. Many people also say that this is the correction Bitcoin needed, which is very healthy.

I have Just gotten used to the fact that the market is always irrational and unpredictable. Nobody can time the market and it will always do the opposite you expect. It can dump with good news, and moon with bad news. This is just a random dump, we have had many before and we will have many in the future. Just Hodl Away!!

Markets can be irrational but that does not mean there are not reasons behind that behavior, to be honest I thought this drop was because of the recent Tether FUD we had lately but I suppose that explanation is as good as any other explanation, what we must decide is what to do with the current price and the only two available options are to buy or to hold.

filharvey

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Very logical points.Now it's a little bit clear for why bitcoin price has fallen down this much.So it means that very soon after the lunar year celebration,we could expect once again price increase.

Misinterpretation of indian finance minister's words and enormous FUD related to it being spread was also a reason for the price fall.

Most of the governments trying to regulate crypto currencies has also made people to worry a little bit about their investment.

green547

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All these noobs are being duped and trick by rich people. Bankers and rich investors and manipulating these markets to pick up crypto and bitcoin for peanuts.

CryptoBry

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Quote from: Kemarit on February 02, 2018, 10:04:34 AM

Maybe all of those reasons contributed to the downfall of bitcoin in recent weeks. Or maybe not. One thing though I noticed though is that the media has really turn everything into a massive FUD for crypto. They try to spin everything to look like crypto is not worth a cent to be invested. And people actually bought every news the media outlet has been picturing the crypto sphere. That's why I said on the other thread that people have not issued with reading comprehension. Seems they can't really filtered out real news from fake ones. I just advise everyone just to look at every news and make better judgement.

This is quite common in almost all areas of our society. And this is happening at the time or era when we have good access to information and communication. In other words, people can easily be moved emotionally more than the information they are receiving. People can easily moved to fear the unknown or to be afraid of what can be in the following days or weeks. Cryptocurrency is not making people more mature and it is even bringing the worst due to our speculative decisions.

LeGaulois

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I disagree with some of your points

I agree the speech from India Minister was completely misinterpreted by the mainstream media but remember that the crash started several days before and we've seen worse than that over the years.

I know the Lunar New Year is not the same date each year on a Gregorian calendar (between January 21 and February 19 on our Gregorian calendar)
but if you compare with the previous year, it has never done something similar as today, maybe in 2014 but I doubt the Lunar New Year had something related to.

With all the factor you mention, I still say we've seen worse than that over the years. Personally, I start to wonder if there is an inside job that we aren't aware of. 2017 has been a crazy year for Bitcoin, 2018 looks crazy as well but on the opposite path.

Googlegenius

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I think you have a beilliant opinion my friend, the fud about india banning cryptocurrencies made a huge impact why bitcoin is going down. I guess most bitcoin holders easily believe on such fake news regardless if the infirmation is coming from a reliable source.

Kemarit

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Maybe all of those reasons contributed to the downfall of bitcoin in recent weeks. Or maybe not. One thing though I noticed though is that the media has really turn everything into a massive FUD for crypto. They try to spin everything to look like crypto is not worth a cent to be invested. And people actually bought every news the media outlet has been picturing the crypto sphere. That's why I said on the other thread that people have not issued with reading comprehension. Seems they can't really filtered out real news from fake ones. I just advise everyone just to look at every news and make better judgement.

Hydrogen

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I have no evidence for this.

What makes the most sense to me, via occam's razor / path of least resistance is, crypto exchanges where trades can be made without paying commissions are conspiring on some level to devalue bitcoin. This appears to be coordinated in conjunction with the media "story" claiming tether is artificially propping up bitcoin's value. There may also be a coordinated sell off. Recent news of banks and financial institutions banning bitcoin or refusing to sell crypto to their customers probably doesn't help much, either.

Of course, the accusation of tether boosting bitcoin's price is an extraordinary claim. I remember a time when people said extraordinary claims require evidence.

Somehow I doubt we'll see any evidence.

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I think that OP reasons definitely have impact on the current situation,and history has shown as that this time of the year usually always brings price decrease.When we add to that all "bad" or misunderstood news,some will say just FUD,then we have something like this.

The media play a big role in influence to people,and bad news somehow always spreads faster than good news.People who know and understand BTC,who are here to stay for long term are the greatest strength of BTC.Unfortunately there is no too much true believers,and every price drop is called end of BTC.

But what goes down, get back up and vice versa - 8000$ few hours ago/now 8700$

Topic: Why the blood bath - my opinion. - page 2. (Read 564 times)