We've all sat there at night when we first realised that 'Bitcoin can take over the world! Mwhaahaaha' and imagined our 1 bitcoin turning into $1,000,000+ and perhaps someday that might happen. But here are a couple of my thoughts I've had on that:
1) To replace all money in the world, bitcoin would have to be used everywhere - and that means replacing physical paper/coin promissory notes with the equivalent for btc (i.e. I promise the bearer 1 uBTC - Issued by BOE) as we're always going to need physical money in some form for the time being. It's just easier in certain cases. Like market stalls and funfairs.
2) Lets speculate on the recent price rise and why it won't keep going at that pace: In 30 days it has quadrupled in price. Take that forward a bit at it's exponential rate: By this time next year the price would be: $3,355,443,200. The figures are correct - that's $3BILLION dollars. Another year: $562,949,953,421,312,000 - More money than the entire world by about 10,000 times. It just ain't gonna happen! Expect a crash at any time!
3) To get to prices like $10,000 is possible in the not to distant future, but for it to happen international transactions have to become the norm using BTC. For that to happen, good price stability is required. You can't make a transaction if it's going to change 10% by the time it's delivered.
4) To get to $100,000 it probably needs to deal with most internet transactions and the holdings of a large portion of peoples personal bank accounts. (Think most people with balances under $10K).
I'd appreciate your comments. Am I thinking on the right track?
1) Bitcoin won't replace all money in the world. Bicoin is a commodity and a money transfer system first. It won't be usefull as a currency before it has stabilized, which could take decades.
2) Bitcoin's rise will happen quickly because when people realize what it will be worth, they don't hold off buying just to make a pretty chart.
3) Bitcoin will be stable enough for this sooner than most people think (< 5 years)
4) Money in bitcoins does not come from people's "personal bank accounts", but from a diversification of investment. Money that would go to gold, silver, stocks, etc... goes into bitcoin instead, most of it as a speculative investment as of today.