Monthly average USD/bitcoin price & trend

zoidsoft

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Quote from: rpietila on April 26, 2020, 11:48:39 AM

Bitcoin has failed to become easy enough to use by the general population (commoners).

The planetary post-lockdown money system must be simple to use. A child must be able to use it.

AnonyMint asks us to tell you that he told you that years ago, but you weren’t able to hear. And he also says you will not be the leader of that money system as you describe in your other post:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.54303817

AnonyMint also asks do you remember when you disagreed on the phone a decade ago with his belief that China was a threat?

exstasie

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Quote from: rpietila on April 26, 2020, 11:48:39 AM

I have thought of the latter statement and now have something to say on the subject:

People are different. There are things that, by nature, become used by everyone on the planet. The others don't.

Bitcoin has failed to become easy enough to use by the general population (commoners).

The planetary post-lockdown money system must be simple to use. A child must be able to use it.

Ease of use is one reason Bitcoin won't become the predominant money system. Fixed supply, which results in low velocity of money, is probably a more important reason.

That doesn't mean BTC won't greatly appreciate in value. My opinion is we are still destined for 7 figures USD eventually. I also think BTC could eventually become a reserve asset, although it's very unlikely to be directly pegged to national currencies due to its fixed supply.

rpietila

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Quote from: rpietila on November 01, 2013, 07:09:28 AM

In my understanding, number of bitcoin users now is only 350,000, less than a million at least.

When it reaches 100 million, we are still in early adopter phase in global scale.

I have thought of the latter statement and now have something to say on the subject:

People are different. There are things that, by nature, become used by everyone on the planet. The others don't.

Bitcoin has failed to become easy enough to use by the general population (commoners).

The planetary post-lockdown money system must be simple to use. A child must be able to use it.

droptableguy2

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Activity: 434

Merit: 10

Quote from: smoothie on August 21, 2015, 09:01:16 PM

using today's values based on OP's formula the bit coin price should be:

10^(-2.869800 + 0.003012 * ((number of days since 2009 Jan 03)/days)) =

$26,439

Formula is too good! Now I know this. Thank you for sharing I will study and apply them to this market. Great.

Dne work

newbie

Activity: 30

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Quote from: greenlion on December 10, 2013, 02:10:35 AM

Bitcoin may not necessarily have a traditional single S-curve hockey stick, because there are a number of completely different markets it competes for that could achieve critical mass over completely independent timeframes.

I will only try to explain to you that the logistics model does not apply to the market of speculation, but applies to the adoption of bona fide technology (eg radio adoption, TV, car, cell phone, etc. Instead of speculative markets, an exponential price followed by the fall of the waterfall.
The exponential increase in the market of speculation always has a waterfall collision. Can you find a counter example? For example, look at the history of Cisco and Microsoft stock prices. There is something that everyone should use on the internet, the router, but you see the exponential rise and fall of the waterfall.
Do not configure the general crypto-currency application with speculation that Bitcoin is perfect. Because replacing the existing 100-year financial system with a new model for the community requires a lot of analysis. It's not as simple as the real benefits of TV or mobile phone. It seems that the aggregate result for Bitcoin is dystopian so it is unlikely to be stable. And as a mathematician you must apply and understand well that irrelevant models if the wrong ones are still applied.
I do not think we'll see a waterfall collapse like in Bitcoin (at least not one that does not recover the trend) soon.

Bugsbey

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greenlion

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Quote from: Diabolicus on November 22, 2017, 10:33:13 AM

Hi, I'm struggling to reproduce / update these coefficients based on current data - can you please point me to an example / excel spreadsheet with formulas? Or is it an iterative approach?
Thanks.

Put the values into a spreadsheet as Date,Price

You're going to want to normalize your dates per rpietila's convention, where date is number of days since 2009-01-03. In Excel you can accomplish this by taking your column of dates, subtracting the function date(2009,01,03), and showing as numbers.

You're going to want to add a column that is the log base 10 of price. ( =log10() )

Do a least squares on [log base 10 of price] as a function of [number of days since 2009-01-03]. This is a built-in function in the Excel graphing features (there is an option to show you the exact function in y=mx+b form overlaid on the chart itself).

That linear function will now output the log of price.

You can calculate the linear model price by adding a column that's =10^(your least squares function). You could literally create a column where you start "=10^(" and paste in your least squares function, and replace the variable with a cell reference.

Diabolicus

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Quote from: rpietila on August 22, 2015, 01:38:50 AM

Quote from: smoothie on August 21, 2015, 09:01:16 PM

using today's values based on OP's formula the bit coin price should be:

10^(-2.869800 + 0.003012 * ((number of days since 2009 Jan 03)/days)) =

$26,439

The coefficients -2.8698 and 0.003012 are dynamic and recalculated daily from past price data.

So it's more like $5,000 now - which still IS somewhat higher than the actual price Cheesy

Hi, I'm struggling to reproduce / update these coefficients based on current data - can you please point me to an example / excel spreadsheet with formulas? Or is it an iterative approach?
Thanks.

wicks

newbie

Activity: 28

Merit: 0

Not sure if this has been posted but this is the calculation of where today's price is versus the trend line

rpietila

donator

Activity: 1722

Merit: 1036

Quote from: smoothie on August 21, 2015, 09:01:16 PM

using today's values based on OP's formula the bit coin price should be:

10^(-2.869800 + 0.003012 * ((number of days since 2009 Jan 03)/days)) =

$26,439

The coefficients -2.8698 and 0.003012 are dynamic and recalculated daily from past price data.

So it's more like $5,000 now - which still IS somewhat higher than the actual price Cheesy

smoothie

legendary

Activity: 2492

Merit: 1491

LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper

using today's values based on OP's formula the bit coin price should be:

10^(-2.869800 + 0.003012 * ((number of days since 2009 Jan 03)/days)) =

$26,439

AizenSou

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Activity: 938

Merit: 1000

Quote from: findftp on February 23, 2015, 10:30:33 AM

Quote from: oblivi on February 23, 2015, 09:55:10 AM

Our only hope is now on the Winklevii brothers to deliver a solid alternative with the Gemini exchange. I really really really hope they don't fuck up, that would be terrible. If even the supposedly trusteable exchanges like theirs fail to be solid, then it's game over.

Well, that sounds really really pathetic.
Why would we be dependent on two twins.
If bitcoin was only dependent on them, it would be a *massive* failure already.

+1 true.

findftp

legendary

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Delusional crypto obsessionist

Quote from: oblivi on February 23, 2015, 09:55:10 AM

Our only hope is now on the Winklevii brothers to deliver a solid alternative with the Gemini exchange. I really really really hope they don't fuck up, that would be terrible. If even the supposedly trusteable exchanges like theirs fail to be solid, then it's game over.

Well, that sounds really really pathetic.
Why would we be dependent on twins.
If bitcoin was only dependent on them, it would be a *massive* failure already.

oblivi

hero member

Activity: 700

Merit: 501

Quote from: ajareselde on February 21, 2015, 03:29:47 PM

Quote from: AtheistAKASaneBrain on February 21, 2015, 10:59:53 AM

Quote from: dnaleor on January 21, 2015, 09:14:58 AM

Quote from: homo homini lupus on January 19, 2015, 11:00:07 PM

We're off with this.
Now all we hear is "price doesn't matter"

I think this is happening:

Crossing the chasm:

I think we are still visionaries. Ask around and its like 1/10 people have even heard of bitcoin in real life.

U could say that, but thats not the reason why bitcoin isnt much higher priced and adopted. The main problem is lack of regulations surrounding bitcoin, and while any dumbo can open up a bitcoin exchange without being able to protect themselves against theft, and provide a transparent business, im surprised were still in tripple digits.
Protect businesses, protect clients that are investing, and we will have great success, until then , bitcoin will allways be considered shady to say atleast.

cheers

Our only hope is now on the Winklevii brothers to deliver a solid alternative with the Gemini exchange. I really really really hope they don't fuck up, that would be terrible. If even the supposedly trusteable exchanges like theirs fail to be solid, then it's game over.

rpietila

donator

Activity: 1722

Merit: 1036

Quote from: rpietila on February 17, 2015, 05:18:14 AM

Good stuff never dies. I did the exponential trendline analysis for the first time in some time. The presentation of the graphics is still not my strong area so please ask for the graphs with instructions. I have them but don't know how to transfer them here Embarrassed

- The trendline has been revised down in each of the recalculations (I did one every 2-3 months). The trendline price is $3,210 (cf. it would have been $6,000 if the year-ago trend were extrapolated).

- Until 7/2014, the trendline R^2 got better all the time, peaking at 0.9353. Since 7/2014, the R^2 has been getting lower and is now 0.9246. The linear fit in exponential chart is no more the best fit. Eg. the 3rd degree polynomial y = -0,000000x3 + 0,000002x2 + 0,001635x - 2,740811 gives the R^2 = 0.9480. This trendline shows its apex in the latter part of 2014, and is now in decline.

- The variation from the exponential trend that was contained at [-0.6, 0.5] units log ever since autumn-2011, is now broken and we are at -1,13 currently. We have never been this low, because the trend was only established a few months after Mt.Gox opened in 2010, and initially we were all the time above the trend.

- Absent all fundamental considerations (mainly: recognition, adoption, tx number and volume, trade volume, acceptance, economy size, VC investment - which all point to a continuing uptrend) it is possible that the exponential uptrend is broken.

- Considering all fundamental considerations, and the fact that regardless of the trendline we choose, we are currently well below it, the situation now is favorable to go long instead of short.

The subject of the thread. I even promised pictures if you tell me which aspect needs visualization.

marcus_of_augustus

legendary

Activity: 3920

Merit: 2349

Eadem mutata resurgo

regulations are not protections, they are protection rackets.

People advocating for regulations are the either the racketeers or, amazingly, their gullible marks.

Bagatell

hero member

Activity: 722

Merit: 500

Quote from: ajareselde on February 21, 2015, 03:29:47 PM

Protect businesses, protect clients that are investing, and we will have great success, until then , bitcoin will always be considered shady to say the least.

cheers

Who's going to do that? The current regulators are more like accomplices than guardians.

ajareselde

legendary

Activity: 1722

Merit: 1000

Satoshi is rolling in his grave. #bitcoin

Quote from: AtheistAKASaneBrain on February 21, 2015, 10:59:53 AM

Quote from: dnaleor on January 21, 2015, 09:14:58 AM

Quote from: homo homini lupus on January 19, 2015, 11:00:07 PM

We're off with this.
Now all we hear is "price doesn't matter"

I think this is happening:

Crossing the chasm:

I think we are still visionaries. Ask around and its like 1/10 people have even heard of bitcoin in real life.

U could say that, but thats not the reason why bitcoin isnt much higher priced and adopted. The main problem is lack of regulations surrounding bitcoin, and while any dumbo can open up a bitcoin exchange without being able to protect themselves against theft, and provide a transparent business, im surprised were still in tripple digits.
Protect businesses, protect clients that are investing, and we will have great success, until then , bitcoin will allways be considered shady to say atleast.

cheers

AtheistAKASaneBrain

hero member

Activity: 770

Merit: 509

Quote from: dnaleor on January 21, 2015, 09:14:58 AM

Quote from: homo homini lupus on January 19, 2015, 11:00:07 PM

We're off with this.
Now all we hear is "price doesn't matter"

I think this is happening:

Crossing the chasm:

I think we are still visionaries. Ask around and its like 1/10 people have even heard of bitcoin in real life.

dnaleor

legendary

Activity: 1470

Merit: 1000

Want privacy? Use Monero!

Quote from: zimmah on February 17, 2015, 10:02:36 AM

Quote from: dnaleor on January 21, 2015, 09:14:58 AM

Quote from: homo homini lupus on January 19, 2015, 11:00:07 PM

We're off with this.
Now all we hear is "price doesn't matter"

I think this is happening:

Crossing the chasm:

I assume this chart refers to the amount of people joining?

yes,

If you take the "integral" of this chart, you should get the total number of users (and in my opinion that needs to correlate closely to the market cap)

Topic: Monthly average USD/bitcoin price & trend (Read 118266 times)