Topic: Why trend reversal? -&gt; basic technical analysis! trend lines is all you need :) - page 2. (Read 2614 times)

Quote from: Wandererfromthenorth on May 20, 2014, 03:07:33 PM

TA is a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Kinda funny to see that yesterday very few wanted to buy around 440-450, but now people are fighting over almost $500 coins. Grin

TA is mass psychology. When grouped together, humans move in somewhat predictable patterns. TA applies mathematical formulas to this. It doesn't guarantee anything, but it is certainly helpful if you know how to use it.

While I agree that in most cases we can create methods of guessing what's going to happen based on the past, Bitcoin is still at the point where it goes through erratic changes. I think this is all just coincidence at this point.

how can you say that line cross was a coincidence? what are the odds?

Also if you would have used the superior line in the graphs i posted for all your trades during this bear market (going fiat and shorting) you would have done perfect safe trades!
Also if you would have used the inferior line you would have guessed the $340 bottom flawlessly!

While I agree that in the very short term (days and weeks) bitcoin can be a little unpredictable, if you use basic technical analysis right the Bitcoin market is a trader's wet dream!!!

The problem is that news plays a major role in Bitcoin's rate of adoption and value. Good news increases both. Bad news (usually) decreases both. No chart can guess as to what news is going to be released, where it's released from and how it's going to affect the prices.

News is just noise in a chart. Look at the big picture.

News have a fundamental value. Price could go down whereas news are great. It happens all the time in all markets. For example, S&P500 just made an ATH during the biggest crises of our time.

ampere9765

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how can you say that line cross was a coincidence? what are the odds?

I don't think it was a coincidence. Bulls have reason to point out the break of the down trend line. But are we looking at a $50 move? Or a $500 move? Bigger? The breakout alone is not so comforting looking at indicators. RSI is riding very high 4H. Hard to see a strong up move from here.

ranlo

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Quote from: Wandererfromthenorth on May 20, 2014, 03:07:33 PM

TA is a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Kinda funny to see that yesterday very few wanted to buy around 440-450, but now people are fighting over almost $500 coins. Grin

TA is mass psychology. When grouped together, humans move in somewhat predictable patterns. TA applies mathematical formulas to this. It doesn't guarantee anything, but it is certainly helpful if you know how to use it.

While I agree that in most cases we can create methods of guessing what's going to happen based on the past, Bitcoin is still at the point where it goes through erratic changes. I think this is all just coincidence at this point.

how can you say that line cross was a coincidence? what are the odds?

Also if you would have used the superior line in the graphs i posted for all your trades during this bear market (going fiat and shorting) you would have done perfect safe trades!
Also if you would have used the inferior line you would have guessed the $340 bottom flawlessly!

While I agree that in the very short term (days and weeks) bitcoin can be a little unpredictable, if you use basic technical analysis right the Bitcoin market is a trader's wet dream!!!

The problem is that news plays a major role in Bitcoin's rate of adoption and value. Good news increases both. Bad news (usually) decreases both. No chart can guess as to what news is going to be released, where it's released from and how it's going to affect the prices.

Wandererfromthenorth

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Quote from: N12 on May 20, 2014, 02:48:20 PM

TA is a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Kinda funny to see that yesterday very few wanted to buy around 440-450, but now people are fighting over almost $500 coins. Grin

TA is mass psychology. When grouped together, humans move in somewhat predictable patterns. TA applies mathematical formulas to this. It doesn't guarantee anything, but it is certainly helpful if you know how to use it.

While I agree that in most cases we can create methods of guessing what's going to happen based on the past, Bitcoin is still at the point where it goes through erratic changes. I think this is all just coincidence at this point.

how can you say that line cross was a coincidence? what are the odds?

Also if you would have used the superior line in the graphs i posted for all your trades during this bear market (going fiat and shorting) you would have done perfect safe trades!
Also if you would have used the inferior line you would have guessed the $340 bottom flawlessly!

While I agree that in the very short term (days and weeks) bitcoin can be a little unpredictable, if you use basic technical analysis right the Bitcoin market is a trader's wet dream!!!

bananaControl

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Activity: 322

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Decentralize All The Things!

Quote from: bananaControl on May 20, 2014, 02:25:39 PM

So, who's to say that TA isn't just a self-fulfilling prophecy? I'm not trolling here, just curious. It's quite a bit easier to predict the actions of someone if he has the same beliefs as you.

Why would you care about the why rather than the what if both amounts to the same? Are you a philosopher, or are you a speculator? Cheesy

Point taken Roll Eyes

While I agree that in most cases we can create methods of guessing what's going to happen based on the past, Bitcoin is still at the point where it goes through erratic changes. I think this is all just coincidence at this point.

Though of course the overall trend is rather clear. But that is more a result of an awesome technology getting better and more widespread than of short term TA-astrology Wink

ranlo

legendary

Activity: 1988

Merit: 1007

TA is a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Kinda funny to see that yesterday very few wanted to buy around 440-450, but now people are fighting over almost $500 coins. Grin

TA is mass psychology. When grouped together, humans move in somewhat predictable patterns. TA applies mathematical formulas to this. It doesn't guarantee anything, but it is certainly helpful if you know how to use it.

While I agree that in most cases we can create methods of guessing what's going to happen based on the past, Bitcoin is still at the point where it goes through erratic changes. I think this is all just coincidence at this point.

bassclef

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Quote from: bananaControl on May 20, 2014, 02:25:39 PM

TA is a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Kinda funny to see that yesterday very few wanted to buy around 440-450, but now people are fighting over almost $500 coins. Grin

TA is mass psychology. When grouped together, humans move in somewhat predictable patterns. TA applies mathematical formulas to this. It doesn't guarantee anything, but it is certainly helpful if you know how to use it.

N12

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So, who's to say that TA isn't just a self-fulfilling prophecy? I'm not trolling here, just curious. It's quite a bit easier to predict the actions of someone if he has the same beliefs as you.

Why would you care about the why rather than the what if both amounts to the same? Are you a philosopher, or are you a speculator? Cheesy

rudius

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Merit: 10

Quote from: bananaControl on May 20, 2014, 02:25:39 PM

So, who's to say that TA isn't just a self-fulfilling prophecy? I'm not trolling here, just curious. It's quite a bit easier to predict the actions of someone if he has the same beliefs as you.

of course it s just a self fulfilling prophecy. It only works because bears and bulls have some rdv points on charts. That s the only way to trade.
Fundamental is for investers, not traders.

bananaControl

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Decentralize All The Things!

So, who's to say that TA isn't just a self-fulfilling prophecy? I'm not trolling here, just curious. It's quite a bit easier to predict the actions of someone if he has the same beliefs as you.

bitcoinsrus

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TA is a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Kinda funny to see that yesterday very few wanted to buy around 440-450, but now people are fighting over almost $500 coins. Grin

I think people thought it was going down from sub 450. I read comments on here about them saying they rather buy on an uptrend rather than on a downtrend (to protect their investment in case it does plummet or something). I guess the ones who timed the 339 dip really must have had some self restraint (to wait pass 400)

rudius

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