Topic: Why Trump presidency may turn out beneficial for Bitcoin long term (Read 3103 times)

I cannot fully agree with this. Why should the US care whether the Chinese government is subsidizing their production? They could use slavery and child labor, and this would totally inhuman and condemnable, but insofar as free trade in particular and laissez-faire capitalism in general are concerned, that shouldn't be an issue.

Trump could just as well claim that China is subsidizing their goods through cheap resources and better demographics.

The younger demographic might not recognise that closing off valid product lines of production raises costs to USA businesses, the general effect of that is reduce available money within a society as it seeks to gain the same utility it has blocked with the loss of free trade.    This idea is not profitable or likely to raise value anywhere, it was tried in the 1930's and did not relinquish until the world war that disrupted it along with many other bad ideas of governments at that time.  Generally after the war we again had free trade and USA was again able to prosper.

Capitalism goes hand in hand with open competition and availability to trade by all.   The only valid reason to close trade with China is with market flooding via subsidised goods made at loss by support of government not free enterprise.    Bitcoin should not generally gain by the loss and failure of any country, it will gain when its preferable in use to other standards such as the dollar.
The biggest mover for bitcoin will be the dollar not Chinese or other currency, the reason for a connection is that Chinese money is using dollars to access world markets.  I think the bitcoin effect is indirect.
If Trump blocked use of dollar and USA banks for trading with China then maybe they would switch to use bitcoin in transactions, thats possible I guess.  Its also possible they use other currency, EURO is the most likely

Let's just hope for the best of America and the bitcoin ecosystem as a whole. Hope, this guy will help to promote bitcoin.

If this was done then he would have much more support from the younger demographic and probably make the others who didn't vote for him make them think that he is indeed about change and for the better. But who knows. Only what his next steps will show if he is just full of it or actually does want to make America great again or just hate (him) more.

He may not have to interfere in Bitcoin affairs directly, but the decisions he takes, for example, raising tariffs on the Chinese goods that America imports may well have a dramatic impact on it. Bitcoin doesn't exist in a sort of ivory tower reluctant or invincible to political and economic decisions of the powers that be even if they don't affect it immediately.

I dont think Trump will have that time to interfere in bitcoin due to what Americas issues that are more needed to have attentions. May he will notice it if it will have such a great impact more in America. Hoping that it will really be in long term and as we know it is still and will always be beneficial yo us with or without Trump.

Nice observation. If that sudden high price is credited to USA election after Trump's winning, its good for us and not to Pres. Trump Bitcoin price goes up can be interpreted that because of Trumps uncerntainty, they pull out their assets and buy bitcoin or other  instrument they can safely park their money.

Bitcoin has been pretty stable recently showing a tendency of growing up, so if we talk about the ordinary Chinese people looking for safe havens, Bitcoin may be the only viable option for most of them. I don't really know if gold is available to the general public in China besides jewelery, and they might have strict controls as well on buying foreign currencies such as dollar or euro, which also seem to be safe havens (well, at least the US dollar presently).

i dont actually think that bitcoin might hurt china strong, cause you need to remember that most of bitcoin is mined in china actually,
 we have the biggest number of miners all over the world in this contry, so it is kidna well distributed there i guess, for elites

To a certain extent is definitely right. It's not as stable as most safe havens but it usually doesn't go along with the stock market (stocks go down, bitcoin rises). I think because bitcoin has some years under it's belt at this point people can look at the past and see that it is a true safe haven investment but is a little unstable too (which of course contradict themselves).

You yourself said that people might switch to Bitcoin for safety. Depreciating currency helps exporters to find new markets for their goods but ordinary people pay for this with their money losing purchasing power because everything becomes more expensive in that currency, especially imports. Quite naturally that when a national currency starts quickly losing value (depreciating), people start searching for safe havens like gold or dollars. Now Bitcoin seems to be another safe haven, at least to a certain extent.

Yeah I think that there will not happen a lot because the bitcoin is from no one and due to that they can also do not a lot about it in my eyes these days.

bitcoin can really hurt China, because they are trying to control their exchange rates. even though there are many Chinese miners, they do not have an union or such, so they are not organized. when an crisis appears they will try to get away and keep their own money instead of fighting together.
That being said, if Trump delivers his promise to China, it will hurt CNY, and people might switch to bitcoin for safety, if the theres no policies stoping them.

also wondering how is the depreciation of CNY a driving force of btc rising in value, as fas as I know CNY depreciating helps blooms the Chinese economy, does not that mean less people there will use bitcoin?

Youre right at some point there. I find it to be quite impossible to think that trump doesnt know about bitcoin. He may very well have someone monitoring btc movement right now.

Trump is not just a showman as many of people think about him. He is a businessman. I am sure he and his staff already know a lot about bitcoin. So they will accept some strategy to bitcoin that will bring money to them. Haha and for us it doesnt mean to be positive. Who knows. I believe that bitcoin doesn't depends from politic and they will not be able to affect on bitcoin somehow big.

But couldn't the Chinese revenge Trump by dropping Bitcoin price? I've heard different opinions on this, but it seems that Chinese miners are controlling a massive share of Bitcoin mining. On this account, they should have enough bitcoins on hand to affect the price, most likely enough to crash it. For example, if they decide to sell all their Bitcoin reserves at once.

I think bitcoin is going to soar up during Trump president. After all Trump received bitcoin as donation during his campaign. Donald Trump has pledged to declare China a currency manipulator on day one of his presidency. During his campaign, he also repeatedly pledged to impose a 45% tariff on Chinese goods. His promises risk creating a trade war between the U.S. and China which could weaken the yuan and accelerate Chinese capital outflows. When the yuan falls, investors often turn to bitcoin.

You can clearly see here when China started rapidly devaluing the Yuan. I perfectly remember that day in August, 2015, when they did that for the fist time. Bitcoin had been mechanically trending downwards for some time yet till it reached about $200 in late August - early September of that year, and then the price started to steadily climb up.

The thesis that Bitcoin growth is primarily the result of Yuan devaluation remains to be proven. Personally, I seriously doubt that China is the main driver of Bitcoin price appreciation, because the operation of the Chinese exchanges is not transparent. I think the primary influence of China on Bitcoin price comes from the assessment of (often fake) "China news" by Western investors.

We should not overestimate the effects of any political leadership on Bitcoin. Bitcoin will grow and appreciate in value regardless of political leadership. The simple reason is that Bitcoin works as a hedge against inflationary fiat currency. The problems of fiat debt money are deeply systemic and can no longer be solved in an orderly fashion. Bitcoin will become a prime target for capital flight in the years to come...

ya.ya.yo!

I wouldn't say that he is a total novice in politics. He certainly knows how this system works, else he couldn't possibly win the Republican Party presidential primaries in early 2016 against such figures as Ted Cruz (senator) or Marco Rubio (another senator) or even Jeb Bush (also former senator). And if I'm not mistaken, he had already been running for the US presidency a few times before he finally hit it this time.