Why we may be stuck in the current range for long - page 3.

Hell-raiser

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Quote from: TheQuin on March 15, 2018, 07:56:12 AM

When you chuck a well paying IT career in and start off with $50k trading capital you saved and then support yourself from the income. Then do that for at least 3 years you'll have something interesting to say on that. Until then you're just another wannabee playing with TA that is as reliable as astrology.

Quote from: Hell-raiser on March 15, 2018, 07:44:46 AM

And now you complain about personal attacks. Don't cry!

I'm not crying, I'm trying not to laugh at you as I'm actually starting to feel sorry for you.

So you are just some random IT dude who claims to be a professional trader. Okay, I got it, now get over yourself and stop whining.

Quote from: raven7886 on March 15, 2018, 12:31:58 PM

It will be good to have some period of consolidation anyway after the market has been bared out. Over time, this could give time for accumulation, for the market to gather enough momentum and we can then see what happens next from there. I am still very optimistic the market will recover, but we cannot say when and we just have to wait for it anyway, so the little we have to play with now, that is good enough.

The 12k wall can be penetrable but that would be with some high volume and then we may have to need some good news to get that out of the way. I somehow agree with all that you have said, and I want to believe that we may actually end up consolidating for a while now until we are able to gather momentum. However, the more we consolidate, the more we still stand any chance of a 50:50 occurrence in the market of going lower or testing the hard resistances.

I'm not a clairvoyant and don't pretend to be the one but I think there is no real consolidation going on. We slipped past 9 and then 8k like there was no support at all. As stated above, people will get tired of waiting if things keep on moving or rather staying like now. That means there will be downward momentum constantly adding up until prices correct further to a new low. As I previously said too, 12k may then become a new 20k and turn into a literally impenetrable ceiling.

ninabobo

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Quote from: Hell-raiser on March 13, 2018, 03:02:14 AM

When Bitcoin was going to its ATH in December, many people here assumed that Bitcoin price wouldn't go below 12k. And at first it looked exactly like that. Bitcoin rebounded strongly at a little below 13k and went all the way up to 15-16k. Those who didn't believe in that theory finally became convinced and bought in when the price plunged again. And then we all know what happened. Bitcoin went as low as 6k. Now it seems that 12k turned into an impenetrable selling wall which will be hard to crush because those who bought at that and higher levels will now be trying to close their positions at all costs. And the longer we stay at sub-10k levels, the more resistance will be building above 10k.

So we are kinda stuck in this range of 8-11k.

maybe. but the main factor of the decline due to several factors over the ban from some countries and follow by facebook and google. this is the domain of the decline. the current situation is so difficult to determine and predict. and right now bitcoin tends to be like what you say.

tbterryboy

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Quote from: TheQuin on March 13, 2018, 04:46:41 AM

Quote from: Don Pedro Dinero on March 13, 2018, 04:38:34 AM

I rather believe technical analysis is more useful to understand the past. Trading predictions massively fail, and that’s why 95% of traders lose money, but when you say traders recognize a pattern and react, I think they contribute to the changes: they believe it will go up, thus, they buy, and price goes up. They believe it will go down, they start selling and more panic comes, dragging down the price.

The title itself it’s quite revealing “Why we may…” So, I think we may or may not.

People would be surprised how little technical analysis professional traders use. Often nothing more sophisticated than using horizontal lines to mark support and resistance levels, not that they are going to trade them, but just as an area of interest to start paying a bit more attention and see if they can see some clues in the order flow.

There is a massive industry in selling TA tools and education based on TA targetted entirely at retail traders. If you visit a prop trading desk you will not see any of it in use.

Personally for me, I got fed up with indicators a long time ago and I started playing price actions on trend lines, support and resistance with my stop loss intact. At least, the insanity of having to draw up so many conclusions with a lot of TA is no longer there and I just prefer trading those candles better. It is a complex and new market, so it seems, one will just have to accept that you have to be extra careful.

nightfury

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I think we will stuck for this price range for long if there will be no other investors are interested or attracted to bitcoins because other bitcoin investors already dump some of their bitcoin as they buy it for alt coins.

liseff3

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Quote from: Hell-raiser on March 13, 2018, 03:02:14 AM

When Bitcoin was going to its ATH in December, many people here assumed that Bitcoin price wouldn't go below 12k. And at first it looked exactly like that. Bitcoin rebounded strongly at a little below 13k and went all the way up to 15-16k. Those who didn't believe in that theory finally became convinced and bought in when the price plunged again. And then we all know what happened. Bitcoin went as low as 6k. Now it seems that 12k turned into an impenetrable selling wall which will be hard to crush because those who bought at that and higher levels will now be trying to close their positions at all costs. And the longer we stay at sub-10k levels, the more resistance will be building above 10k.

So we are kinda stuck in this range of 8-11k.

We are trapped because there is a third party who wants us trapped. Bitcoin prices are currently unpredictable because the market is not running properly (controlled by a third party). But i'm very sure bitcoin will not slip to the same place that is $ 6,000.

Hazir

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Unless we will have some positive news I doubt that bitcoin price will soar again - we are now entered a deep bear market.
I cannot remember what was a truly positive bitcoin news in mainstream media in 2018 - we only keep hearing about negative things related to BTC.
But honestly, the current price is still better than most people expected we could have prior to that manic rush in December 2017.

arpon11

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Quote from: spikyz on March 15, 2018, 05:35:41 AM

Serious question, does G20 meeting will have any effect towards bitcoin price?

I think it might have infect on bitcoin pricing as there is always a negative reactions when bitcoin price goes down. Bitcoin has been having good days and has strive to remain relevant all over the world but many people especially those that failed to understand how it works keep saying that bitcoin need to be banned or regulated. The G20 meeting are part of the tools that are going to be used to regulate bitcoin price.

raven7886

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Quote from: arpon11 on March 13, 2018, 05:01:51 AM

I also think bitcoin will be in range for a very long time. Bitcoin has done very well last year and I think it will take more time before we can actually see another great progress. I don't think the price will go down more than $6,000 this time around and we may also see the high it can go now is $12,000. If any positive things happen then we may began to see some recovery.

It will be good to have some period of consolidation anyway after the market has been bared out. Over time, this could give time for accumulation, for the market to gather enough momentum and we can then see what happens next from there. I am still very optimistic the market will recover, but we cannot say when and we just have to wait for it anyway, so the little we have to play with now, that is good enough.

The 12k wall can be penetrable but that would be with some high volume and then we may have to need some good news to get that out of the way. I somehow agree with all that you have said, and I want to believe that we may actually end up consolidating for a while now until we are able to gather momentum. However, the more we consolidate, the more we still stand any chance of a 50:50 occurrence in the market of going lower or testing the hard resistances.

TheQuin

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Quote from: Hell-raiser on March 15, 2018, 07:44:46 AM

You didn't disagree with my analysis in any constructive way, to begin with. You came up with contrived arguments like who was selling when the market was trading near December highs

A reminder that it was a constructive counterargument.

Quote from: TheQuin on March 13, 2018, 04:30:57 AM

I would have to disagree that the resistance at 12k is "an impenetrable selling wall". There is a consolidation taking place which has found that resistance at 12k and also support around 8.3k. When that happens many traders will play the range and buy the bottom and sell the top repeatedly until it breaks out. That means if it does try and breakout upwards there will be many shorts trapped that will need to buy to cover, that will be the fuel for the next spurt upwards. Equally the opposite is true if it breaks down. Anyone who thinks they can predict which of those two things will happen is fooling themselves. Trading isn't about predicting which way it will breakout but rather recognising it when it happens and then reacting quickly to that.

Quote from: Hell-raiser on March 15, 2018, 07:44:46 AM

..and ended up with references to your "professional trading career", as if it could give more substance and weight to your argument.

After you just dismissed my reading of the situation with this.

Quote from: Hell-raiser on March 13, 2018, 05:25:53 AM

Honestly, I think you are clutching at straws here.

Quote from: Hell-raiser on March 15, 2018, 07:44:46 AM

And then it turned out that you have essentially nothing to be bragging about either.

When you chuck a well paying IT career in and start off with $50k trading capital you saved and then support yourself from the income. Then do that for at least 3 years you'll have something interesting to say on that. Until then you're just another wannabee playing with TA that is as reliable as astrology.

Quote from: Hell-raiser on March 15, 2018, 07:44:46 AM

And now you complain about personal attacks. Don't cry!

I'm not crying, I'm trying not to laugh at you as I'm actually starting to feel sorry for you.

Hell-raiser

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Quote from: TheQuin on March 15, 2018, 07:39:06 AM

Quote from: Hell-raiser on March 15, 2018, 07:33:49 AM

That's pathetic. Someone who claims to be an allegedly successful "professional trader" is posting for money on a forum.

I went past the paid posts count this week ages ago. I've got time to kill until US markets open. I'm also a Bitcoin enthusiast and have been involved for a long time. I get a lot out of participating on this forum and the bit of extra coin I get for renting out my sig is inconsequential.

What is really pathetic is how you turned my disagreeing with your analysis into a personal attack on me

You didn't disagree with my analysis in any constructive way, to begin with. You came up with contrived arguments like who was selling when the market was trading near December highs and ended up with references to your "professional trading career", as if it could give more substance and weight to your argument. And then it turned out that you have essentially nothing to be bragging about, either.

And now a scar-riddled and battle-hardened trader whines about some personal attacks. Now stop crying kiddie and get a life!

TheQuin

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Quote from: Hell-raiser on March 15, 2018, 07:33:49 AM

That's pathetic. Someone who claims to be an allegedly successful "professional trader" is posting for money on a forum.

I went past the paid posts count this week ages ago. I've got time to kill until US markets open. I'm also a Bitcoin enthusiast and have been involved for a long time. I get a lot out of participating on this forum and the bit of extra coin I get for renting out my sig is inconsequential.

What is really pathetic is how you turned my disagreeing with your analysis into a personal attack on me.

Hell-raiser

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Quote from: talks_cheep on March 14, 2018, 10:57:22 AM

I thought and stated that a carnage would start in January 2018 but I was wrong. This downturn started in February 2018 and will continue for a long time, maybe until end of 2019. We will see $2000 by then. Why? Because the fundamentals are weak, governments around the world have started to crack down, and investors have become wiser.

The carnage started as early as December. But it took a month before people realized how deep in trouble they were. In February, the price crashed below 10k but just in January it went down half of its December highs. Though I don't think we will see prices below 3k, at least not for long. Other than that, I'm going to say there are no fundamentals in the stock market sense. This is all speculation, and we may be past its peak already.

Quote from: TheQuin on March 15, 2018, 05:30:42 AM

Quote from: Hell-raiser on March 15, 2018, 05:25:32 AM

Then your reference to being a professional trader is meanigless.

Your ignorance of what it takes to consistently make a living from trading in no way diminishes what I have pointed out. Go back to drawing pretty lines on your charts and see how far that gets you.

That's pathetic. Someone who claims to be an allegedly successful "professional trader" for a dozen years is posting for money on a forum.

talkbitcoin

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All I know is that I know nothing.

Quote from: nc50lc on March 14, 2018, 12:42:07 AM

The ATH was brought by (in order) the Forks (more are buying BTC and withdrawing those out of exchanges to get more forked coins), News about being maintream and FUD brought by the crazy price surge.

.....and the uncontrollable spam in the Bitcoin Discussion Board,
for example: Will you still buy at 17k?/20k? - with 100 Replies like: bdsbx rberbYESbdbsajdsd snd!

1. forks: they may have affected bitcoin price but any effect would have been temporary, because if you believe that people bought bitcoin only to get those coins, then the same people would have dumped what they have bought + the profit they gained as soon as fork was done so price should have dropped bigger and as soon as forks were done. for example right after BCH fork, BTG fork and so on depending on their fork-size.

2. i don't think you know what FUD means. FUD is not something that brings price surge!

3. if you think spaming bullshit on bitcointalk can change anything about price then you know nothing of the price Cheesy

spikyz

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Serious question, does G20 meeting will have any effect towards bitcoin price?

TheQuin

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Quote from: Hell-raiser on March 15, 2018, 05:25:32 AM

Then your reference to being a professional trader is meanigless.

Your ignorance of what it takes to consistently make a living from trading in no way diminishes what I have pointed out. Go back to drawing pretty lines on your charts and see how far that gets you.

Hell-raiser

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Quote from: TheQuin on March 15, 2018, 04:34:10 AM

Quote from: Hell-raiser on March 15, 2018, 04:24:10 AM

Quote from: TheQuin on March 14, 2018, 10:38:21 AM

Oh, and professional traders are not all multi-millionaires. It's a tough job and most of grind out a living.

Well, somehow grinding out a living doesn't resonate quite well with being a professional futures trader for 12 years.

Thank you for demonstrating you have no idea what being a professional trader involves. I have made a living from trading for just over 12 years which is far more successful than most that have tried.

Then your reference to being a professional trader is meaningless.

Quote from: talkbitcoin on March 13, 2018, 05:18:43 AM

Quote from: Hell-raiser on March 13, 2018, 03:02:14 AM

And the longer we stay at sub-10k levels, the more resistance will be building above 10k.

you can also say that the more we stay at sub 10k and above certain prices like for example above $9000 there is more buy support building up at $9000
that is why price keeps going back to that level again and bounces back up to test $12k again.

It turns out there was no meaningful support at 9k. The price went down 2 thousand dollars to below 8k like nothing, and it doesn't look there is enough support building up there either. From my perspective, the price doesn't go lower simply because no one is actively selling at these prices, not because buying walls are springing up. If there is no volume, after some time Bitcoin will continue falling when last hopes for a massive breakout vanish. And then 12k will become a new 20k.

TheQuin

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Quote from: Hell-raiser on March 15, 2018, 04:24:10 AM

Quote from: TheQuin on March 14, 2018, 10:38:21 AM

Oh, and professional traders are not all multi-millionaires. It's a tough job and most of grind out a living.

Well, somehow grinding out a living doesn't resonate quite well with being a professional futures trader for 12 years.

Thank you for demonstrating you have no idea what being a professional trader involves. I have made a living from trading for just over 12 years which is far more successful than most that have tried.

Quote from: Hell-raiser on March 15, 2018, 04:24:10 AM

Quote from: TheQuin on March 14, 2018, 10:38:21 AM

Quote from: Hell-raiser on March 14, 2018, 10:13:40 AM

Besides, it seems to be universally recognized already and even confirmed (https://www.ccn.com/bitcoin-drops-8300-mt-gox-trustee-sell-off-continues-market-drops/) by the trustee himself that the recent price crash was exactly due to off-loading of the Gox coins in the open market.

What the article actually says:

Quote

Analysts like WhalePanda have attributed to the recent fall to....

Did you read the piece in its entirety? It is only one page long, and right after that WhalePanda citation, the Mt. Gox trustee himself says the following:

Quote

As a result of the consultation with the court, I considered it necessary and reasonable to sell a certain amount of BTC and BCC at this point and secure a certain amount of money for distribution resources, and thus, I sold the amount of BTC and BCC above. I made efforts to sell BTC and BCC at as high a price as possible in light of the market price of BTC and BCC at the timing of sale. I plan to consult with the court and determine further sale of BTC and BCC

Moreover, he is going to sell more than $1.7 billion worth of Bitcoin in the upcoming months, so everyone should beware of more profound price declines.

Yes, I did read it and that quote in no way says what you said it did. He says that he sold them, he does not say that the price drop was caused by that action.

Quote from: Hell-raiser on March 15, 2018, 04:24:10 AM

Moreover, he is going to sell more than $1.7 billion worth of Bitcoin in the upcoming months, so everyone should beware of more profound price declines.

Everyone in this case not including traders who will pay far more attention to order flow.

Hell-raiser

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Quote from: TheQuin on March 14, 2018, 10:38:21 AM

Oh, and professional traders are not all multi-millionaires. It's a tough job and most of grind out a living.

Well, somehow grinding out a living doesn't resonate quite well with being a professional futures trader for 12 years. At least, not in the sense you meant it.

Quote from: TheQuin on March 14, 2018, 10:38:21 AM

Quote from: Hell-raiser on March 14, 2018, 10:13:40 AM

Besides, it seems to be universally recognized already and even confirmed (https://www.ccn.com/bitcoin-drops-8300-mt-gox-trustee-sell-off-continues-market-drops/) by the trustee himself that the recent price crash was exactly due to off-loading of the Gox coins in the open market.

What the article actually says:

Quote

Analysts like WhalePanda have attributed to the recent fall to....

Did you read the piece in its entirety? It is only one page long, and right after that WhalePanda citation, the Mt. Gox trustee himself says the following:

Quote

As a result of the consultation with the court, I considered it necessary and reasonable to sell a certain amount of BTC and BCC at this point and secure a certain amount of money for distribution resources, and thus, I sold the amount of BTC and BCC above. I made efforts to sell BTC and BCC at as high a price as possible in light of the market price of BTC and BCC at the timing of sale. I plan to consult with the court and determine further sale of BTC and BCC

Moreover, he is going to sell more than $1.7 billion worth of Bitcoin in the upcoming months, so everyone should beware of more profound price declines. He still has 160k BTC against 40k already sold.

talks_cheep

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I thought and stated that a carnage would start in January 2018 but I was wrong. This downturn started in February 2018 and will continue for a long time, maybe until end of 2019. We will see $2000 by then. Why? Because the fundamentals are weak, governments around the world have started to crack down, and investors have become wiser.

TheQuin

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Quote from: Hell-raiser on March 14, 2018, 10:13:40 AM

No offense intended but

Whatever, think what you want but I gave some good advice about trading there and you're welcome to learn from it or ignore it.

The market is in a consolidation which means that there are traders in long positions and traders in short positions and when it looks like it is going to break out one side will panic. That is what will decide the direction we go next.

Go back and read what I said again. All moves come to an end due to profit taking and that induces others to chase.

Oh, and professional traders are not all multi-millionaires. It's a tough job and most of grind out a living.

Quote from: Hell-raiser on March 14, 2018, 10:13:40 AM

Besides, it seems to be universally recognized already and even confirmed (https://www.ccn.com/bitcoin-drops-8300-mt-gox-trustee-sell-off-continues-market-drops/) by the trustee himself that the recent price crash was exactly due to off-loading of the Gox coins in the open market.

What the article actually says:

Quote

Analysts like WhalePanda have attributed to the recent fall to....

Hmmm...

Topic: Why we may be stuck in the current range for long - page 3. (Read 792 times)