Will $7.20 be the 2012 high? - page 3.

notme

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Quote from: RyNinDaCleM on April 08, 2012, 06:34:22 PM

Quote from: bulanula on April 08, 2012, 05:54:59 PM

Quote from: Stephen Gornick on April 08, 2012, 01:59:46 AM

Quote from: bulanula on April 06, 2012, 10:10:58 AM

Supply halfs, demand same so price doubles.

Let's say the block reward change occurs on December 9th, 2012. On December 8th there are 10,492,800 BTC issued and another 7,200 will be issued that day. The "supply' comes from those 7,200 that miners don't keep plus a certain amount of the 10,492.800 BTC that those holding them are wishing to sell at whatever the current price is.

So demand does not drop in half, only the amount of currency inflation is what drops by half (from 7,200 BTC to 3,600 BTC).

Incidentally, in a market where the commodity is scarce, a doubling in demand causes the price to rise by way more than double.

You are forgetting the effect this news has on people Wink

Just like SoiledCon when King RealScam announced the change to cut reward the price doubled in the same day as people bought up the coins !

But it's very easy to double the price of something worth in the tenths or hundredths of a cent...
I see the way they do it over at BTC-e. Pretty much a daily routine on whichever flavor it happened to be that week.

Good point, plus announcing you are changing it is very different from the BTC situation. It is well known and will be mostly priced in by the time we get there.

RyNinDaCleM

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Quote from: bulanula on April 08, 2012, 05:54:59 PM

Quote from: Stephen Gornick on April 08, 2012, 01:59:46 AM

Quote from: bulanula on April 06, 2012, 10:10:58 AM

Supply halfs, demand same so price doubles.

Let's say the block reward change occurs on December 9th, 2012. On December 8th there are 10,492,800 BTC issued and another 7,200 will be issued that day. The "supply' comes from those 7,200 that miners don't keep plus a certain amount of the 10,492.800 BTC that those holding them are wishing to sell at whatever the current price is.

So demand does not drop in half, only the amount of currency inflation is what drops by half (from 7,200 BTC to 3,600 BTC).

Incidentally, in a market where the commodity is scarce, a doubling in demand causes the price to rise by way more than double.

You are forgetting the effect this news has on people Wink

Just like SoiledCon when King RealScam announced the change to cut reward the price doubled in the same day as people bought up the coins !

But it's very easy to double the price of something worth in the tenths or hundredths of a cent...
I see the way they do it over at BTC-e. Pretty much a daily routine on whichever flavor it happened to be that week.

bulanula

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Quote from: Stephen Gornick on April 08, 2012, 01:59:46 AM

Quote from: bulanula on April 06, 2012, 10:10:58 AM

Supply halfs, demand same so price doubles.

Let's say the block reward change occurs on December 9th, 2012. On December 8th there are 10,492,800 BTC issued and another 7,200 will be issued that day. The "supply' comes from those 7,200 that miners don't keep plus a certain amount of the 10,492.800 BTC that those holding them are wishing to sell at whatever the current price is.

So demand does not drop in half, only the amount of currency inflation is what drops by half (from 7,200 BTC to 3,600 BTC).

Incidentally, in a market where the commodity is scarce, a doubling in demand causes the price to rise by way more than double.

You are forgetting the effect this news has on people Wink

Just like SoiledCon when King RealScam announced the change to cut reward the price doubled in the same day as people bought up the coins !

Stephen Gornick

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Quote from: bulanula on April 06, 2012, 10:10:58 AM

Supply halfs, demand same so price doubles.

Let's say the block reward change occurs on December 9th, 2012. On December 8th there are 10,492,800 BTC issued and another 7,200 will be issued that day. The "supply' comes from those 7,200 that miners don't keep plus a certain amount of the 10,492.800 BTC that those holding them are wishing to sell at whatever the current price is.

So demand does not drop in half, only the amount of currency inflation is what drops by half (from 7,200 BTC to 3,600 BTC).

Incidentally, in a market where the commodity is scarce, a doubling in demand causes the price to rise by way more than double.

hazek

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Quote from: bulanula on April 06, 2012, 10:10:58 AM

I don't think people already priced in this decrease beforehand ...

You have no idea about game theory do you?

bulanula

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I think price will double when the reward cuts in half in December.

Supply halfs, demand same so price doubles.

Buying and holding all I can in the meantime.

I would expect no less than $10 in December for sure.

If it is one good thing that SoiledCon showed us, it is this. When block reward was cut price immediately rose.

I don't think people already priced in this decrease beforehand ...

Crypt_Current

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Quote from: mp420 on April 06, 2012, 04:11:30 AM

Quote from: Crypt_Current on April 06, 2012, 03:51:43 AM

Quote from: mp420 on April 06, 2012, 03:39:06 AM

I'd dare say MOST btcs are bought by people who do not price the eventual inflation rate drop into their strategies.

Not quite sure what you're getting at with this statement -- I am genuinely curious: What do you think are the implications is most BTC are bought by people who do not price the eventual inflation rate drop into their strategies?

Apologies to OP if this is off-topic.

I think many people are underinvested and keeping that way, and I think the inflation rate halving will come as a surprise to many. Thinking in a commodity mindset (my opinion is that bitcoin is closer to a commodity than to a currency), production is going to drop to half of what it's now. Although of course demand for bitcoin is very elastic compared to e.g. demand for oil, and most BTCs are never truly "consumed", halving of production is going to tip the supply/demand scale significantly.

I see; thank you.

mp420

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Quote from: Crypt_Current on April 06, 2012, 03:51:43 AM

Quote from: mp420 on April 06, 2012, 03:39:06 AM

I'd dare say MOST btcs are bought by people who do not price the eventual inflation rate drop into their strategies.

Not quite sure what you're getting at with this statement -- I am genuinely curious: What do you think are the implications is most BTC are bought by people who do not price the eventual inflation rate drop into their strategies?

Apologies to OP if this is off-topic.

I think many people are underinvested and keeping that way, and I think the inflation rate halving will come as a surprise to many. Thinking in a commodity mindset (my opinion is that bitcoin is closer to a commodity than to a currency), production is going to drop to half of what it's now. Although of course demand for bitcoin is very elastic compared to e.g. demand for oil, and most BTCs are never truly "consumed", halving of production is going to tip the supply/demand scale significantly.

Crypt_Current

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Quote from: mp420 on April 06, 2012, 03:39:06 AM

I'd dare say MOST btcs are bought by people who do not price the eventual inflation rate drop into their strategies.

Not quite sure what you're getting at with this statement -- I am genuinely curious: What do you think are the implications is most BTC are bought by people who do not price the eventual inflation rate drop into their strategies?

Apologies to OP if this is off-topic.

mp420

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I don't think so. There's a lot of time for various kinds of things to happen before the year is over. And, although adoption rate has slowed down (may be temporarily, may be for good), I'm fairly sure most current and potential owners of bitcoin aren't really very well versed in the technicalities of the bitcoin network, and the block reward halving will thus be a strong boost to bitcoin overall. I'd dare say MOST btcs are bought by people who do not price the eventual inflation rate drop into their strategies.

blablahblah

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Using my incredible scientific method (bitcoincharts.com --> charts --> the gox --> maximum time period --> make edumacated McGuesstimate), it's clear that the price will go sideways 'til about May or June, then go parabolic to $40+ by October.

proudhon

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Quote from: hazek on April 04, 2012, 04:20:02 PM

Given the massive inflation faze Bitcoin is in right now I'd say it's possible.

I think it's more than possible.

hazek

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Given the massive inflation faze Bitcoin is in right now I'd say it's possible.

guruvan

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I wouldn't be surprised to break above $7.20 this year. In the moment, (as I stated in another thread), the market cap is awfully small, and still would be "small" at $7.20 - I'm looking for more along the lines of a $100M - no later than year's end. I wouldn't be surprised to see a little bubble to $10ish, see a new bottom form at the $7.20 zone, and then a steady rise to find the reality of the $10+ resistance.

There's definitely a real basis for a move up beyond the bottom we've largely established so far this year. There is definitely an influx of solid, hard money. (Mining gear sales alone suggest this) - I don't actually think the true level of investment is priced into the market yet. This is what I expect to drive us up past the $7.20 mark (to make that a new bottom) - There is a ton of investment that hasn't hit the network yet - it's going to start to hit May/June.

Also, somewhere between $20M and $50M an investment becomes too valuable to allow a chance of failure, and seems reaching that level often results in a direct influx of cash. Again, if this were a startup, and the actual investors were venture capitalists, they'd be looking for 20:1 on their initial investment, within 3-5yrs, sooooo... that's a lot of money.

Crypt_Current

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Quote from: proudhon on April 04, 2012, 06:46:54 AM

Quote from: haploid23 on April 04, 2012, 04:42:33 AM

Where did you get such random numbers? Why not $6.50, or $8.00?

$4 is likely the new bottom, but there's still 2/3 of 2012 left. I see an overall rise in this chart... if that slight trend continues, it could be possible to break 7.2 by 12/21/2012 Wink

proudhon

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Quote from: haploid23 on April 04, 2012, 04:42:33 AM

Where did you get such random numbers? Why not $6.50, or $8.00?

haploid23

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Where did you get such random numbers? Why not $6.50, or $8.00?

Technomage

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I would be very surprised if $7.2 was the high of the year and obviously disappointed. Especially now that Bitcoin has got basically the biggest news boost since the summer (seriously) with a front page Reuters article linked all over the place and a London Times print article, in fact 2 print articles in the same magazine. On top of this we have basically a regular blogger at Forbes and much more positive/productive news coverage than before.

Of course if it just turns out as hype once again, it will be disappointing. However I see this year and the next as the years of actual growth (of Bitcoin usage). So far we have mostly had growth of 1) Silk Road 2) Speculation and 3) General interest but there is so much more coming. So much more.

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Quote from: bitcoinBull on April 03, 2012, 03:16:45 PM

The asks on the order book are fake. They're there to manipulate people into selling their bitcoins for cheap.

That logic cuts both ways, y'know. The ask side isn't the one with a 50k wall Wink

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Quote from: proudhon on April 03, 2012, 02:50:41 PM

I know that percentage wise there have been rises of that magnatude, however I don't think those price increases occurred through the same ask volume density. There are a lot more bitcoins up for sale closer to the current trading price than in the past when the price shot up above $10, $20, and $30.

The asks on the order book are fake. They're there to manipulate people into selling their bitcoins for cheap.

Topic: Will $7.20 be the 2012 high? - page 3. (Read 6278 times)