Will bailouts become more frequent? | Bitcointalksearch.org

Iyanjr

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Quote from: StonksStonksStonks on August 25, 2020, 11:35:59 AM

1989 - savings and loans bailout
2008 - banks bailout
2020 - covid19 bailout aka wall street bailout
bailouts get bigger every time. But will they become more frequent?? Do we need more bailouts to bailout the aftermath of the previous bailouts?

every of these you've mentioned are not as connected as they seem to be from your list.
there are a lot of information between the lines is missing.
so there is no way for us to make a proper conclusion from information you've provided.
but if I take into account all info I have on myself I'd say no or rather hope no - bailouts won't become more frequent

justdimin

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I do understand the bank ones because in anywhere but USA banks who needed money actually sold some of their shares to recollect that capital and get out of it. That actually makes 100% sense, a company that needs money?

They either take out a loan or they just sell their shares and they will be back to square one. If somehow they are strong again, they could buy those shares back from the market once again, doesn't matter if it s cheaper or more expensive because they were saved from bankruptcy.

Now USA on the other hand, USA loves to save rich people, no idea why and how they are capable of keep saving those companies over and over again without ever requesting anything back, "2008 was a loan, 750 billion was paid and 780 billion was received" is not really a good explanation, you could have given ME 750 billion and I could have given you 780 back, its not that hard when the amount is so large.

MCobian

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But based on the data in the opening post, the distance between 1989 and 2008 bailouts was 19 years. Then the distance of the next
bailouts in 2008 and 2020 is 12 years, this can be concluded that the distance of the occurrence of bailouts is getting closer. This means
indeed bailouts become more frequent, my prediction is that the next bailouts distance could be around 5 years. This means that the next
bailouts can occur in 2025. Bailouts usually occur in the world economic crisis. Therefore it will be very dangerous if the COVID-19 vaccine
is not found immediately, so according to my predictions the next bailouts could occur 5 years from now.

jostorres

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The thing is, Germany had pandemic as well, all over the world there was pandemic and something you wouldn't expect from German people because we all think of them as smart and hard working people but they even had a rally about how they do not want government to force them anything, which is an idiotic move you would expect from Americans for example but even with that they had low death count and they managed it perfectly and right now they have 0% inflation for example, which by the way is not awesome because inflation is growth but still it is better than having 10%+ for example.

I am saying this because I want to show the world that it is possible to have negative debt (no idea what it is called because it is not profit) and have zero inflation and protect your people from dying, all perfect things and it is already being done right now.

abhiseshakana

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Quote from: South Park on September 12, 2020, 03:23:38 PM

This is an interesting perspective, it's entirely possible that the US government learned from what happened in 2008 that if they just gave money to the rich and saved them from the economic crisis that they themselves caused people will be very upset about it and that is never a good thing especially when the elections are so close, so they decided to give part of that money to the people so they were happy and they did not saw that the majority of the money went to Wall Street anyway.

As we know, the dollar circulating outside America is three times than the dollar circulating domestically. The majority of dollars circulating abroad are controlled through wall street. Wall street is a representation of "real money owner" and not a representation of the American government. Thus, the view of the American government, because of the large amount and scope of Wall Street wealth, the destructive effect would be greater if Wall Street collapsed, in other words the United States financial corporation has gone global and must be saved.

If the United States recovers, the world will recover. The bailout policy is always a high-stake drama negotiation, between several parties, as currently there are negotiations between Trump, Bidden, the finance minister, the FED and the senate. Congressional approval is required for the bailout package to go down. Saving the wall street means the economy will rotate while providing a stimulus to the community means to boost demand without being followed by an increase in production.

Gozie51

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About bailout, is going to keep being there as long the system requires it for life to continue. This is one big role that government play which makes it relevant. They print and regulate money in the country by doing that.. Series of bailouts have come even before covid-19 that came as bailout for some government, palliatives and economic support for different government.

Quote from: jackg on August 25, 2020, 11:38:23 AM

I think we will soon just start to see government ownership of financial institutions instead.

I think the government already own the banking institutions or has a great control of it because the government regulate it. The the government do this through the central bank that directly guilds, regulate the policies of banking in general at least in some system. They appoint the governor of the central bank who can be fired out of appointment before tenure expires. The government also has influence in some banking decision like mass retrenchment, loan percentage, merger.

jaysabi

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Quote from: ChiBitCTy on September 04, 2020, 07:12:59 AM

It's interesting to see that during my lifetime I've seen of the three big bailouts in the United States history, not that that is something I am proud of , but an interesting point in history to be living in. I think depending on the type of bailout, or how the bailout is set up, determines if it is a good idea for a country or a bad idea. Personally I think it's a good idea when the bailout does have strings attached, i.e. "you take this bailout, and we will become part owners of the company going forward". The U.S. government has already showed it's too inept to run businesses ( US postal service for example ).

The USPS doesn't operate in a free market so it's not a suitable example "government bad" strawman. It is mandated by law to charge rates below cost in order to subsidize mail delivery in rural parts of the country. They are mandated by law to make pension payments to a pension plan years in advance of needing to and without an ability to raise rates to compensate for the costs that are saddled on them by law and not because it's the normal cost of doing business.

South Park

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Quote from: redsun114 on September 12, 2020, 12:19:28 AM

People are really not seeing the big picture if they think that wall street got some money and people got some money and it is not wall street bail out. 2 trillion were given to companies versus only 400 billion were given to people. We are talking about a situation where companies are not making a loss at all and they are actually doing very well while the general public can't even find work, things are not looking good for the Joe's and Jane's of USA, so it was definitely a bail out for wall street.

If you invest into keeping the financial sector alive so that you would look better while you do not invest into people's life as much, you are not helping the nation, you are helping the rich. This was a full blown wall street bail out with some such money to people so they wouldn't get mad.

This is an interesting perspective, it's entirely possible that the US government learned from what happened in 2008 that if they just gave money to the rich and saved them from the economic crisis that they themselves caused people will be very upset about it and that is never a good thing especially when the elections are so close, so they decided to give part of that money to the people so they were happy and they did not saw that the majority of the money went to Wall Street anyway.

redsun114

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People are really not seeing the big picture if they think that wall street got some money and people got some money and it is not wall street bail out. 2 trillion were given to companies versus only 400 billion were given to people. We are talking about a situation where companies are not making a loss at all and they are actually doing very well while the general public can't even find work, things are not looking good for the Joe's and Jane's of USA, so it was definitely a bail out for wall street.

If you invest into keeping the financial sector alive so that you would look better while you do not invest into people's life as much, you are not helping the nation, you are helping the rich. This was a full blown wall street bail out with some such money to people so they wouldn't get mad.

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If unforeseen circumstances continue to happen frequently, then bailout will resurface more than usual to save the economy from a total collapse.

South Park

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Quote from: StonksStonksStonks on August 25, 2020, 11:35:59 AM

1989 - savings and loans bailout
2008 - banks bailout
2020 - covid19 bailout aka wall street bailout

bailouts get bigger every time. But will they become more frequent?? Do we need more bailouts to bailout the aftermath of the previous bailouts?

It depends, the covid19 crisis has exposed the weakness of governments and the economy in general just to deal with something that should not have been that difficult to overcome, it is true many people died but it is not like we were affected by the bubonic plague or anything remotely close to that, and the worst part is that this really scared people so I do not think the consumer spending will recover soon making even more businesses risk bankruptcy in the future and at that point more bailouts will not solve the problem.

exstasie

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Quote from: abhiseshakana on September 07, 2020, 02:35:37 AM

Quote from: AbNewton on September 06, 2020, 03:17:53 PM

Also, the government decides to print out more money too. Bank's interest rate also changed to lower compare to before in some countries. People put all their savings to gold or stock as they consider it was a safe channel to hide over this time. Definitely something in the recipe for disaster. My prediction is the real estate crash will trigger the start.

QE and low interest are always side by side and are usually used as a weapon to re-setup the economy because it is overvalued because the money is printed dozens of times compared to the existing underlying project. The way of resetting is for capitalists to discard overvalued paper by allowing the stock market to crash. Because the losers are small investors, while large investors like Berkshire Hathway have left first and are holding cash.

In general that's true, it's retail investors who have the most to lose and thus can't hold through corrections. They end up selling near the bottom and the big boys swallow up their liquidity.

Funny enough, it looks like Warren Buffett sold the bottom, at least in airline stocks. They liquidated everything in early Q2. I think they (as well as many other institutional investors) underestimated the buying power of retail investors, who have at least doubled their trading activity since before the pandemic began and are clearly affecting the market more than ever: Retail traders make up nearly 25% of the stock market following COVID-driven volatility, Citadel Securities says

Now it's interesting to see Berkshire Hathway has been selling off lots and lots of bank stocks, paring down on at least a half dozen positions including big banks like Wells Fargo and JPMorgan Chase. A sign of things to come, or just a sign that there are better returns elsewhere?

18 Stocks Warren Buffett Is Selling (And 6 He's Buying)

Mauser

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Quote from: exstasie on September 06, 2020, 11:36:19 AM

Quote from: prehisto on September 05, 2020, 04:29:42 PM

You have to eleborate , how was wall street bailed out?

Some companies were bailed out , some stimulus checks were given to pepole. I dont see how this is wall street bailout.

It wasn't, not yet. Banks were well capitalized heading into this, sitting on record amounts of cash. However, there are millions of people currently missing mortgage payments and defaulting on credit cards and other loans as we speak. It's hard to say how quickly those cash reserves will be eaten through in some of the darker economic scenarios.

Remember, when the housing crisis hit in 2007, it took a year before the bottom completely fell out and Congress passed the TARP bailout. The same thing could happen this time around. Maybe 2021 will be the year of the bank bailouts.

The bailing out during the corona crisis happened much fast than the 2007/2008 housing crisis because the lock down hit the real economy immediately. Almost all major governments injected billions into their economy. Some of this money came in form as loans, others as equity and some as substitute for keeping on workers. In Europe for example national governmente became stock holder in all of the big airlines over night. Also pharmaceutical companies received state aid to try and avoid selling out of corona vaccines.

abhiseshakana

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Quote from: AbNewton on September 06, 2020, 03:17:53 PM

Also, the government decides to print out more money too. Bank's interest rate also changed to lower compare to before in some countries. People put all their savings to gold or stock as they consider it was a safe channel to hide over this time. Definitely something in the recipe for disaster. My prediction is the real estate crash will trigger the start.

QE and low interest are always side by side and are usually used as a weapon to re-setup the economy because it is overvalued because the money is printed dozens of times compared to the existing underlying project. The way of resetting is for capitalists to discard overvalued paper by allowing the stock market to crash. Because the losers are small investors, while large investors like Berkshire Hathway have left first and are holding cash.

When the economy, social and politics of the global world are disrupted by corona for several months and even the effects could be several years in the future, the FED will print money so that capitalists and oligarchs can buy everything in the world. And the wars that are used to legitimize the use of weapons are propaganda wars, media wars and wars on social media and biotechnology wars.

So printing money, aka QE, has always been the savior of the US from the habit of printing excessive money because of overconfidence, the majority of dollars circulating abroad, not domestically, and dollars circulating abroad are mostly controlled by Wall Street. Besides that, the procamp language likes the US because the US created the system.

AbNewton

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Quote from: exstasie on September 06, 2020, 11:36:19 AM

Quote from: prehisto on September 05, 2020, 04:29:42 PM

You have to eleborate , how was wall street bailed out?

Some companies were bailed out , some stimulus checks were given to pepole. I dont see how this is wall street bailout.

It wasn't, not yet. Banks were well capitalized heading into this, sitting on record amounts of cash. However, there are millions of people currently missing mortgage payments and defaulting on credit cards and other loans as we speak. It's hard to say how quickly those cash reserves will be eaten through in some of the darker economic scenarios.

Remember, when the housing crisis hit in 2007, it took a year before the bottom completely fell out and Congress passed the TARP bailout. The same thing could happen this time around. Maybe 2021 will be the year of the bank bailouts.

Also, the government decides to print out more money too. Bank's interest rate also changed to lower compare to before in some countries. People put all their savings to gold or stock as they consider it was a safe channel to hide over this time. Definitely something in the recipe for disaster. My prediction is the real estate crash will trigger the start.

cryptoperkele

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Quote from: StonksStonksStonks on August 25, 2020, 11:35:59 AM

1989 - savings and loans bailout
2008 - banks bailout
2020 - covid19 bailout aka wall street bailout

bailouts get bigger every time. But will they become more frequent?? Do we need more bailouts to bailout the aftermath of the previous bailouts?

If the markets rise, it takes more money to save them when they collapse. So yes, they are getting bigger and bigger until the current system collapses all together. Or changes direction to something else.

exstasie

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Quote from: prehisto on September 05, 2020, 04:29:42 PM

You have to eleborate , how was wall street bailed out?

Some companies were bailed out , some stimulus checks were given to pepole. I dont see how this is wall street bailout.

It wasn't, not yet. Banks were well capitalized heading into this, sitting on record amounts of cash. However, there are millions of people currently missing mortgage payments and defaulting on credit cards and other loans as we speak. It's hard to say how quickly those cash reserves will be eaten through in some of the darker economic scenarios.

Remember, when the housing crisis hit in 2007, it took a year before the bottom completely fell out and Congress passed the TARP bailout. The same thing could happen this time around. Maybe 2021 will be the year of the bank bailouts.

Shasha80

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Based on the data in the opening post, it certainly proves that bailout has become more frequent. Actually the government is implementing
this policy because of the urgent economic situation, such as the wall street bailout that occurred in 2020 due to the COVID19 pandemic.
Hopefully after this we will not experience another economic crisis, so the bailout doesn't need to be done or at least it doesn't happen
frequently. But the problem is no one can guess what will happen in the future.

prehisto

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You have to eleborate , how was wall street bailed out?

Some companies were bailed out , some stimulus checks were given to pepole. I dont see how this is wall street bailout. In general bailouts should be considered carefully , were company are located, how much people would lose their jobs and etc

bitgolden

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I have realized that maybe if done correctly bailouts could be something super awesome, we just need to change everything about them but keep the main premise same.

So, let's say companies do not pay too much tax because they keep getting tax cuts and so forth, and sometimes they just crash and need bail outs and they get paid billions total and sometimes pay it back, sometimes they do not even pay it back and get more bailouts instead.

What a government can do is, give them bailouts but require them to pay a certain interest rate depending on their past, if it is a company that got bailouts before they should have a higher interest rate, something like 20% rate yearly, or even higher, make them feel what college loans feel like, and if they fail? Government takes a part of that company in return, becomes a share holder of that company, if they keep doing this for a long time, government will take control over.

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