I have long thought positive thoughts when it comes to Bitcoin. In theory it's a really good thing.
A few recent events have started to shake my belief slightly, for the following reasons:
- Although there is more acceptance, there doesn't seem to be a growing 'mainstream' acceptance. It is still too difficult to use and way too difficult to understand for the vast majority of people.
- There's no incentive for buyers to use Bitcoin. Why spend one's fiat to buy Bitcoin to spend on a product when one could just spend the fiat directly? By buying Bitcoin to buy a product, one will likely be paying more in fees via companies such as Bitpay and losing out on any sort of 'buyer protection' offered by credit card companies.
- Too many clones and copies are diluting the market and causing even more confusion among 'ordinary' people that don't understand the difference.
- Talk of impending financial collapse in the US and the collapse of the dollar at first would appear positive for Bitcoin. When one takes into account the likelihood of civil unrest leading to martial law and the internet kill switch, suddenly a hoard of Bitcoins look less like the smart move.
- The expectation of massive growth in the price deters use of Bitcoins. I made the mistake of paying 2 Bitcoin for something a year ago to pay the equivalent of 30 Euro, if I had kept the 2 BTC I would have had closer to 1500 Euro.
- The only reason the authorities aren't taking it seriously is because it isn't big enough to do any real damage. Once it is, who can honestly say that the US/China/Russia won't shut Bitcoin down. Pah!! Shut Bitcoin down? That's impossible.....well, no, not really. If they impose enough of a penalty for dealing in Bitcoin, the majority of people won't touch it with a barge pole, and certainly any large investors won't come within 100 miles. The extreme end to this scenario is that they force ISPs to block P2P traffic. I don't know if or how that would work, but governments are NOT going to give up their power without a fight.
- Lastly Bitcoin itself has nothing special to offer when compared to all the other copies other than it was first, but, so was Myspace and where is it now, and where is Facebook?
Don't get me wrong I am not a Bitcoin hater, I hold Bitcoin myself and I do hope that I am wrong, but these doubts are (IMO) real and quite worrying for the long term.
1) Merchant adoption has to come first. That's the stage we are in. Once that has gone mainstream (which it is right now), people wont need to use fiat to buy.
2) Hopefully second phase will be people getting paid in Bitcoin, and merchants creating incentives to buy with Bitcoin. This will require ease of use to go up. Usability is the #1 target of current startups. Once its easy to acquire and spend,
3) There can be alt coins out the ass. Nothing matters except infrastructure, adoption, and commerce. 10 million alt coins without these don't dilute Bitcoin one iota.
In summary, you're expecting too much too soon. Give it time. Bitcoin isn't "fully evolved" right now. Not by a long shot. That should be obvious.
-B-