Will Bitcoin Repeat History ? - page 3.

Beparanf

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Quote from: gunhell16 on October 23, 2022, 02:23:22 AM

Quote from: NotATether on October 20, 2022, 03:06:15 AM

There are historical turning points every 4 years. It's when the price breaks the maximum of the previous cycle. When that happens, the price tends to go up like crazy until it reaches a new average price.

So yes, it repeats history every 4 years

Are you referring to Bitcoin halving Sir? and do you also mean that in the coming 2024 this will be the fourth year again for there to be a change in the price of bitcoin in the market that will kick its value up again and we just don't know what price it will raise when it happens that?

I also noticed that as the year goes by or time goes by, there is a change in the price value of the bitcoin market, so many people rely on and hold bitcoin at the moment because of this matter.

Bitcoin halving is part of it but not totally the reason of the cycle. If you see the chart records, The price didn’t start the strong after the halving in fact the price dump after and just recover later on. The best example to invalidate this theory was the 2nd Bitcoin halving which is 2016 while the peak for that cycle occurs next year after the halving which is 2017. It just happened that the cycle was 4 years in crypto and coincides halving on every cycle.

GreatArkansas

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Quote from: gunhell16 on October 23, 2022, 02:23:22 AM

Quote from: NotATether on October 20, 2022, 03:06:15 AM

There are historical turning points every 4 years. It's when the price breaks the maximum of the previous cycle. When that happens, the price tends to go up like crazy until it reaches a new average price.

So yes, it repeats history every 4 years

Are you referring to Bitcoin halving Sir? and do you also mean that in the coming 2024 this will be the fourth year again for there to be a change in the price of bitcoin in the market that will kick its value up again and we just don't know what price it will raise when it happens that?
(....)

Most of the people including me are basing here. The Bitcoin block halving is a very important event on the Bitcoin not only for Bitcoin but for sure it is also for the entire cryptocurrency market.
About the this history, if we will base on Bitcoin block halving, then we will expect to see the price will start to rise months before the Block halving which is expected to happen in 2024.

gunhell16

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Quote from: NotATether on October 20, 2022, 03:06:15 AM

There are historical turning points every 4 years. It's when the price breaks the maximum of the previous cycle. When that happens, the price tends to go up like crazy until it reaches a new average price.

So yes, it repeats history every 4 years

Are you referring to Bitcoin halving Sir? and do you also mean that in the coming 2024 this will be the fourth year again for there to be a change in the price of bitcoin in the market that will kick its value up again and we just don't know what price it will raise when it happens that?

I also noticed that as the year goes by or time goes by, there is a change in the price value of the bitcoin market, so many people rely on and hold bitcoin at the moment because of this matter.

Alge898

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Quote from: KaliLinux on October 20, 2022, 05:42:53 AM

Quote from: Adbitco on October 20, 2022, 04:04:27 AM

The cycling does not actually have that effects on the bitcoin price anymore lot of prediction about bitcoin that it could gets to what people don't even think of, yet today bitcoin couldn't go that much lower as they thought it should be. To me what I understood and taking note of is that there is always much variation in every year but the turning point doesn't really takes action between length of 4 years rather 2 to 3 years before the next bitcoin halving. So if you may ask me I will suggest you should take your time and do your analysis careful.

Regardless it will still fall into or between the 4 years range. Looking at this Bitcoin Rainbow Chart, it seems like there is one major ATH in that 4-year circle and maybe some other peaks too, and from this same chart, It does seem like Bitcoin is at the bottom or close because looking at the next image of trade view chart,

We are kind of trading along the long-time support of the last ATH and possibly if that happens to be broken like some other people believed Bitcoin will, then we are possibly looking at the Red bottom line which is around $12k-$11k which is marked with the brown line Bitcoin Rainbow Chart but do we think we could have that much deflection from within the chart down that level?
So, the big question is, can Bitcoin break the normal 4-year circle, or are we seeing another ATH before the next Halving, I think this might not happen until after the Halving

The History always repeat itself!

https://i.imgur.com/F13gFCR.png

Uang_kartal

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I once thought realistically in 2013. 2018 etc. it made me think why i sold bitcoin too fast at that time.without knowing and learning when the turning point is in 4-5 years one way.or the next 2024? the mindset of investors knows the risk even though the current price in my opinion is not too bad and I have no reason to worry. As we go there will be people who will come to hold bitcoin, store with other altcoins or create pools and synchronization with fiat [p2p] I think mining is still running even though supply is running low but I am optimistic that bitcoin will return to ATH even 2 times more than last year. even though it is bearish this bitcoin will be fine

8rch7

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Quote from: ?? on ??

why do you have to question that, while we have seen that the current price of all cryptocurrencies is cheap and it is better to buy it cheap is something more important than talking about history repeating itself, history should be a lesson so that everyone buys when it is cheap and sells when it is expensive

It's true as you said the bitcoin price is now going down, we have to take the opportunity when the price goes down and we have to set aside a little of our money to buy bitcoin, we also have to believe even though bitcoin can't repeat history like before but at least we have to believe that the bitcoin price it will definitely bounce back, because we know the supply of bitcoin is very limited, in contrast to FIAT currencies which are unlimited and governments are free to issue FIAT currencies they want.

landheer

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Quote from: Antonas1 on October 21, 2022, 08:16:15 AM

Yes, in a theory or graphic analysis. However this question appears to imply that bitcoin is an automatic machine that will spin faster every 4 years. We are, and everyone who trade BTC will affect the market, don't we? High price are possible if there are several factors, such as news, government statements, and others.
Meanwhile, people are avoiding spending money due to the economic crisis, and it remains to be seen if the crisis will end in 2024 or 2026.

Of course we won't know whether the bitcoin price will repeat itself like last year or not because of the worsening economic crisis, but I think the bull run market will definitely come again, but we won't know the time.

jaberwock

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Quote from: Quidat on October 20, 2022, 06:15:21 PM

Quote from: KennyR on October 20, 2022, 06:02:03 PM

Based on the market movement that have taken place over the years, it is found that the history repeats every 4 years. We don't know how about this in the upcoming years, but history repeats for sure without any specific timeline. Bitcoin market is at its stability, it will undergo down market and further reaches the peak. We can have patience and can't be conclusive of the time period.

So better brace yourself for possible shoot up of price but of course its never been that precise or we can accurately say that it could happen again but just like the rest been saying that
it would really be something that we should really look on because in every halving event there's really a significant rise after that but no one knows on when it would happen.
This is why we should really be that watchful on these certain conditions and be wise on making a sell once you had already gain up some profits.
History might or might not repeat and it would really be depending on how this market behaves.

It is 100% guaranteed that the price will go up, only thing that is not certain is when it will happen. If you have been in the crypto world long enough then you would know that it's going to be recovering for sure, we do not know when it will, we never know when it will, it could be in 3 months, it could be in 3 years, we have no idea but one thing is certain that it will recover for sure.

This is why I believe that we should not be really working towards being too timid about our purchases on crypto right now, we should be more brave because the brave ones who get in right now will be the ones who will profit when the time comes and they profit.

darkangel11

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I usually ask people who support such theories why do you expect bitcoin to follow the pattern of previous two bear markets where it went down more than 80% if it did not follow them on the way up?

The last bull markets offered 20x returns from the previous high and people were expecting at least 10x this time but all they got was less than 4x. Are we supposed to get a very bad bull market with no FOMO rally followed by a severe bear market?

People say what goes up must come down, but we're already down below the 2017 ATH.

justdimin

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Quote from: kamvreto on October 20, 2022, 10:31:57 AM

it will not be a guarantee the cycle will continue to repeat, but if you look at the first series of iterations, every bitcoin iteration is always the same until now, although there are only a few slight differences and it doesn't really affect it.
This halving cycle every 4 years is the main point that many people look forward to, because after the halving occurs and the halving in rewards miners who successfully add new blocks on the blockchain.
For now, there has been no drastic change because the market is bearish and unstable.

People are relying on the past way too much to make calculations for the future. I personally agree that just because something happened in the past doesn't mean that it will happen in the future as well. I agree that there is a good chance that we may not repeat the same cycle, but in a good way where we may end up going up a lot in 2023, that's my own opinion though and not an advice.

This means we are going to end up seeing a big increase in 2023 when normally people are expecting it on 2024 or 2025, and that may or may not happen but I am preparing myself for something like that, if I am wrong then all that changes would be me waiting a few more years.

Bitstar_coin

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Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: Darker45 on October 20, 2022, 08:27:13 AM

I didn't click on the link. But if you are referring to the 4-year cycle pattern, that's very familiar. Did you really find it yourself?

Anyway, what happened in the past may or may not happen again. It is not in any way a guarantee that it will happen again. If it happened once, twice, thrice, that still doesn't assure you that it will happen again. So I wouldn't go all-in on that.

Perhaps the only thing that I'd like to believe as a guarantee is that better days will come. Whether it will follow the 4-year cycle pattern or not, it doesn't matter. What matters is that we will make another ATH sooner or later. That's something I can bet all-in.

You are right and I believe this should be the main focus of most investors and not how soon the next ATH will be. History has shown us that Bitcoin has been able to recover after every bear market and whether it repeats this after every 4 years like before can't really be confirmed as you said but at least from the general BTC price trend so far, it has been on an upward trend.

Why won't btc record another ath after the next coming halving? I don't think this is even a question to be debating on, looking back at previous circles already shows what will happen after the next halving. The only thing no one can guess right is how high the next ath will be.
There have been more advancements in the area of acceptance and adoption which is an additional push toward btc widespread all over the world in the different economic sectors. The pattern may not be the same but btc will definitely record a new ath, there is no other coin like btc, don't forget that.

Antonas1

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Quote from: Yarei on October 21, 2022, 11:22:32 AM

The fact that Bitcoin has shown this trend or has followed this cycle every 4 years doesn't guarantee that it will happen again in 4 years.

But if the economy improves in 2023, maybe that trend will be a guarantee. Imagine if everyone thought the Bitcoin price was going to hit a new peak, then they rushed to buy, wouldn't that move the price up? It could be faster than we thought.

Quote from: Yarei on October 21, 2022, 11:22:32 AM

Price movements are often affected by human decisions (either to buy or sell) and these decisions are driven by emotions and results of analysis

People's decisions to sell or buy are strongly affected by fundamentals, but don't let emotions control you.

lepbagong

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if we want to look back that repetition every 4 years will always happen and this is unavoidable and there will be another cycle like that. many have also said that and we believe that indeed situations like repetition will always occur.
let's see Halving and ATH will always be repeated every 4 years and this has been proven;

Number
1.
2.
3.
4.

HALVING
2012
2016
2020
2024

PRICE
- $12
- $650
- $8,821
-

ATH
2103
2017
2021
202.

PRICE
- $1,146
- $19,475
- $68,789
-

but will 2024 happen again? If we look at the past, it will definitely happen again.
but we also know that 2024 is the year of crisis that is expected to hit the world, will bitcoin not be affected?
we will see and we are always optimistic that repetition will always happen.

Yarei

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The fact that Bitcoin has shown this trend or has followed this cycle every 4 years doesn't guarantee that it will happen again in 4 years. I think it's actually very important to take the human factors into play when considering this. Price movements are often affected by human decisions (either to buy or sell) and these decisions are driven by emotions and results of analysis
So there's a chance that Bitcoin will reach a new ATH in 2025, but it's not guaranteed.

MinoRaiola

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There is probably one point: The Halving. The Miner will get half rewards after halving (3.125 BTC). So there will be 3.125 BTC less Bitcoin available for sale per block. This should push bitcoin to better/higher prices, so it was in the past. Important: The acceptance of the people for Bitcoin and a few big news. Many Bitcoiners play with this idea and this can also lead to something being forced.

Antonas1

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Yes, in a theory or graphic analysis. However this question appears to imply that bitcoin is an automatic machine that will spin faster every 4 years. We are, and everyone who trade BTC will affect the market, don't we? High price are possible if there are several factors, such as news, government statements, and others.
Meanwhile, people are avoiding spending money due to the economic crisis, and it remains to be seen if the crisis will end in 2024 or 2026.

Smartvirus

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Quote from: fxncrypt on October 20, 2022, 03:00:42 AM

I am looking the charts of bitcoin to make some trade on it and found a historical turning point on it what you guys are thinking about it check and leave your opinions.

https://youtube.com/shorts/tycNLzRi44o?feature=share

Thanks

Sure this isn't your channel and some promotional strategy of yours? Am just saying and my thoughts though. The truth is, nothing is stagnated and there are certain expectations that have that have found to repeat over and over again. Trends like, bearish markets, bullish markets, halvings and a few more. These are expectations that do happen but, you shouldn't have the hope of bitcoin breaking a dip from the last bearish market. I haven't seen any of that happening and I hope someone would show me if it has.
These knowledges do help and its good to be conscious of the fact so you know what to expect.

ShowOff

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History can repeat itself or not, it was discussed even before bitcoin passed ATH 2017. In fact bitcoin actually hit new ATH even 3x above ATH 2017, but however this history has no rules. I think history is very likely to repeat itself if bitcoin really gets a lot of support during the halving and the year after. But there is no certainty even if speculation and discussion about it is always carried out.

Honestly I really want history to repeat itself, but wouldn't be surprised if it didn't happen in the next 2 or 3 years.

coolcoinz

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I think that people who say that history repeats are looking for patterns that don't exist and modifying them to fit their narrative.

The markets are completely different every time, but people want them to be similar so they say things like:

Quote from: posi on October 20, 2022, 05:29:31 PM

According to the bitcoin bear cycle, bitcoin will drop 80-85% in value

There's no such rule.
Since 2012 there were 7 or 8 crashes of 50% or more and 3 of them were over 80%, but that doesn't mean this one will be 80% again. Bitcoin matures with every cycle and becomes stronger with more businesses added, more hash power, more users and more institutional investors. If the bottom were to be at 73%, I wouldn't be surprised.

If you want to see how the market cycles change check the length of the bear markets. The time between a market bottom and the next halving was different each time.
364 days before the first halving, then 539 and 504. We are now 517 days before the halving, so is there a pattern? No, because the bottom could've been in June or still coming, nobody knows that, but the double top in 2021 proves to me that bitcoin does the unexpected.

Techkoy407

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it cycles bitcoin every 4 years, and it's a halving.
if you don't know halving,
halving is the reduction of the reward earned by miners, who manage to add new blocks to the blockchain, by half. The halving basically aims to maintain the scarcity of crypto assets and most importantly bitcoin.

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