Topic: Will Bitcoin stay the main cryptocurrency? My point of view - page 2. (Read 234 times)
This is a very interesting post, to be honest, in my own point of view, If other cryptos continue to improve their value and price I am going to have no single doubt that another crypto will be replacing bitcoin, but as of now bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are going very well, in my owen speculation bitcoin is gonna be the main crypto for a very long time.
I originally made this post in the French section in February 2018.
Two months later, I would like to share my point of view with the rest of the community.
Obviously, I’m not the first guy to talk about that, this is just to share what I think about the possible evolution of the market in the next years.
I am not a native English speaker, so there are certainly some mistakes, all my apologies for that.
Good reading!
Currently, the money market can be categorised like this:
Let’s begin by discussing of the Bitcoin/Altcoins separation. Firstly, it seems totally justified for several reasons.
The main argument going in this way is the fact that Bitcoin is the very first cryptocurrency that has been created. It's like the "mother" of all the other cryptocurrencies that exists, whether by concept or by the code (in a general way). It's the base of everything. The originator. In this way, Bitcoin was serving and still serve as a "guide" and as a model for other cryptos, that are looking on the evolution of Bitcoin and taking the interesting innovations (and adding their own ones).
Bitcoin is, on first sight, the inevitable way for (almost, see below) any person entering the cryptocurrency world, for two reasons. The first one is that the most people that are interesting them in cryptos don’t know this world well and focus on the currency that everybody is talking about: Bitcoin, and buy a little bit of it “to try”. They often discover this other world apart that are altcoins afterwards. The second reason I’m thinking about is that most of the exchanges that are converting FIAT money into cryptos are especially selling Bitcoin. And beyond this entering on the cryptocurrency market, the alcoins exchanges are made with Bitcoin as an intermediary, that is used as a reference. For example: I want to convert Alt1 into Alt2, I have to buy some BTC with Alt1 and then buy Alt2 with these BTC.
Difficile de le détrôner dans ces conditions.
Translation :
According to this calculus, one satoshi would have a value of 3.50€. It goes without saying that with such a value, and without talking about the scalability and other problems that may occur, it would be impossible to spend our bitcoins in the daily life (no, I won't pay 3.50€ for a baguette or a coffee!).
The total supply of 21 million can be good enough as long as Bitcoin stays quite underground, but as soon as a lot of people begin to use it, it rapidly become few. Since 2013 the value of a bitcoin is count in hundreds of euros (/ dollar), and in thousands of euros (/ dollars) since the last year. The amounts of the transfers are of the order of 0.001 or 0.0001 BTC, we are maybe used to it, but for the general public it is not the best. (And without talking about inflation, etc.)
That's why I think that we should not consider Bitcoin as the only cryptocurrency that can reign over the others, that would stay common alts. Of course, it will stay the originator of all of we can see today in cryptos, but to my mind it won't outshine the cryptocurrency world eternally. I think that it will stay important but it will be along with other currencies, as we begin to see (not necessarily the actual ones, of course), to divide up the charge of the transactions.
Personally, I think that it can be a good thing.
You all know that Bitcoin and the blockchain principle in general rest on an advanced decentralisation. Yet, the fact that Bitcoin represents the main part of the market can be dangerous. Indeed, let's suppose that something happens to it. It never happened in the past because the technology behind is well thought and the network is working quite well (except the scalability problem), but we all know that nothing is infallible and it is dangerous to put everything on Bitcoin (or any other crypto), even if this cryptocurrency is very strong. If a problem happened, the majority of the market would disappear (or would be affected, at least). If this market is divided in several / many different cryptocurrencies, if one of them had some problems, then the consequences would be less important. Not only the currencies would be decentralized, but also the capital would no longer be centralised on one only currency.
Over time, we would have:
There you go, I wanted to give my vision of the current market situation and one of its evolution possibilities (there are many others!), sorry for the massive text but when I begin to write I can't manage to stop. I do not have a superior knowledge or anything, and I surely did mistakes, forgot some important things... You can say it, and don't hesitate to give your point of view on this. Also, sorry for my English, I'm not a native speaker, I'm trying to do my best but it's sometimes difficult. I know that the pro-BTC will not like this post, but anyway, for me this is the occasion of learning, and for us all the occasion of debating and think about what will become the cryptocurrency market in the next years.
Additions:
- [coming...] what I mean by "cryptocurrency" in this post
- [coming...] About the Lightning Network
Two months later, I would like to share my point of view with the rest of the community.
Obviously, I’m not the first guy to talk about that, this is just to share what I think about the possible evolution of the market in the next years.
I am not a native English speaker, so there are certainly some mistakes, all my apologies for that.
Good reading!
Currently, the money market can be categorised like this:
- The FIATs
- Bitcoin
- The altcoins
Let’s begin by discussing of the Bitcoin/Altcoins separation. Firstly, it seems totally justified for several reasons.
The main argument going in this way is the fact that Bitcoin is the very first cryptocurrency that has been created. It's like the "mother" of all the other cryptocurrencies that exists, whether by concept or by the code (in a general way). It's the base of everything. The originator. In this way, Bitcoin was serving and still serve as a "guide" and as a model for other cryptos, that are looking on the evolution of Bitcoin and taking the interesting innovations (and adding their own ones).
Bitcoin is, on first sight, the inevitable way for (almost, see below) any person entering the cryptocurrency world, for two reasons. The first one is that the most people that are interesting them in cryptos don’t know this world well and focus on the currency that everybody is talking about: Bitcoin, and buy a little bit of it “to try”. They often discover this other world apart that are altcoins afterwards. The second reason I’m thinking about is that most of the exchanges that are converting FIAT money into cryptos are especially selling Bitcoin. And beyond this entering on the cryptocurrency market, the alcoins exchanges are made with Bitcoin as an intermediary, that is used as a reference. For example: I want to convert Alt1 into Alt2, I have to buy some BTC with Alt1 and then buy Alt2 with these BTC.
Aucune altcoin même très innovante n'a jamais fait la moindre ombre au Bitcoin.
Pour accéder à la grande majorité des alts on est obligé de passer par le bitcoin et toutes les nouvelles personnes qui viennent aux cryptos font un passage obligé par le bitcoin car en géneral elles ne connaissent que celui-ci.Difficile de le détrôner dans ces conditions.
Bref, Bitcoin à le potentiel de devenir la monnaie transnationale.
Aujourd'hui, Bitcoin coexiste avec les monnaies nationales.
Les plus passionnés d'entre nous pensent que Bitcoin à la capacité de remplacer les monnaies nationales dans un avenir plus ou moins proche.
J'ai recherché quelle masse monétaire représentaient la somme des monnaies nationales du monde entier et je l'ai divisé epar le nombre maximal de Bitcoin qui sera atteint en 2145 pour obtenir ce qui pourrait être la valeur de Bitcoin si il remplaçait les FIAT.
En arrondissant, j'arrive au chiffre de 350 millions d'euros par bitcoin : 350 000 000 euros!
Le cours aujourd'hui de un bitcoin est de 3.500 euros.
Le potentiel de hausse serait donc, hors inflation, de x100.000 :-).
Translation:Aujourd'hui, Bitcoin coexiste avec les monnaies nationales.
Les plus passionnés d'entre nous pensent que Bitcoin à la capacité de remplacer les monnaies nationales dans un avenir plus ou moins proche.
J'ai recherché quelle masse monétaire représentaient la somme des monnaies nationales du monde entier et je l'ai divisé epar le nombre maximal de Bitcoin qui sera atteint en 2145 pour obtenir ce qui pourrait être la valeur de Bitcoin si il remplaçait les FIAT.
En arrondissant, j'arrive au chiffre de 350 millions d'euros par bitcoin : 350 000 000 euros!
Le cours aujourd'hui de un bitcoin est de 3.500 euros.
Le potentiel de hausse serait donc, hors inflation, de x100.000 :-).
Quote
In short, Bitcoin has the potential of becoming the transnational currency.
Today, Bitcoin coexists with the national currencies.
The most enthusiasts of us are thinking that Bitcoin has the capacity to replace the national currencies in a more or less near future.
I searched what money supply represented the national currencies of the whole world and I divided it by the Bitcoin's maximum supply that will be reached in 2145 to obtain what could be the value of Bitcoin if it replaced the FIATs.
By rounding, I come to the number of 350 million euros by bitcoin: 350 000 000 €!
The current exchange rate of one bitcoin is 3500 euros.
So the increase potential would be, without inflation, of x100 000 :-).
Today, Bitcoin coexists with the national currencies.
The most enthusiasts of us are thinking that Bitcoin has the capacity to replace the national currencies in a more or less near future.
I searched what money supply represented the national currencies of the whole world and I divided it by the Bitcoin's maximum supply that will be reached in 2145 to obtain what could be the value of Bitcoin if it replaced the FIATs.
By rounding, I come to the number of 350 million euros by bitcoin: 350 000 000 €!
The current exchange rate of one bitcoin is 3500 euros.
So the increase potential would be, without inflation, of x100 000 :-).
According to this calculus, one satoshi would have a value of 3.50€. It goes without saying that with such a value, and without talking about the scalability and other problems that may occur, it would be impossible to spend our bitcoins in the daily life (no, I won't pay 3.50€ for a baguette or a coffee!).
The total supply of 21 million can be good enough as long as Bitcoin stays quite underground, but as soon as a lot of people begin to use it, it rapidly become few. Since 2013 the value of a bitcoin is count in hundreds of euros (/ dollar), and in thousands of euros (/ dollars) since the last year. The amounts of the transfers are of the order of 0.001 or 0.0001 BTC, we are maybe used to it, but for the general public it is not the best. (And without talking about inflation, etc.)
That's why I think that we should not consider Bitcoin as the only cryptocurrency that can reign over the others, that would stay common alts. Of course, it will stay the originator of all of we can see today in cryptos, but to my mind it won't outshine the cryptocurrency world eternally. I think that it will stay important but it will be along with other currencies, as we begin to see (not necessarily the actual ones, of course), to divide up the charge of the transactions.
Personally, I think that it can be a good thing.
You all know that Bitcoin and the blockchain principle in general rest on an advanced decentralisation. Yet, the fact that Bitcoin represents the main part of the market can be dangerous. Indeed, let's suppose that something happens to it. It never happened in the past because the technology behind is well thought and the network is working quite well (except the scalability problem), but we all know that nothing is infallible and it is dangerous to put everything on Bitcoin (or any other crypto), even if this cryptocurrency is very strong. If a problem happened, the majority of the market would disappear (or would be affected, at least). If this market is divided in several / many different cryptocurrencies, if one of them had some problems, then the consequences would be less important. Not only the currencies would be decentralized, but also the capital would no longer be centralised on one only currency.
Over time, we would have:
- Bitcoin, the mother of cryptocurrencies
- The everyday life altcoins
- The other altcoins, with a specific utilisation (+ the tokens)
There you go, I wanted to give my vision of the current market situation and one of its evolution possibilities (there are many others!), sorry for the massive text but when I begin to write I can't manage to stop. I do not have a superior knowledge or anything, and I surely did mistakes, forgot some important things... You can say it, and don't hesitate to give your point of view on this. Also, sorry for my English, I'm not a native speaker, I'm trying to do my best but it's sometimes difficult. I know that the pro-BTC will not like this post, but anyway, for me this is the occasion of learning, and for us all the occasion of debating and think about what will become the cryptocurrency market in the next years.
Additions:
- [coming...] what I mean by "cryptocurrency" in this post
- [coming...] About the Lightning Network
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