Will China convert its USD holdings into Bitcoins?

notme

legendary

Activity: 1904

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Quote from: Spekulatius on August 01, 2012, 03:51:09 AM

Quote from: notme on July 31, 2012, 03:10:39 PM

Quote from: Spekulatius on July 31, 2012, 02:09:43 PM

+1 I dont have much anyway, so Im all in Grin

Exactly... I own my house, and most of my food is grown by me or my parents-in-law, so this decision can't make me homeless or starving. I make plenty of cash to pay the utilities. When I need something and they don't take bitcoin it's easy enough to have money in the bank the next day. I watch the markets carefully, and I got started right after bitcoin hit $1 for the first time, so I witnessed the giant bubble and the 6 months of pain. We're much healthier now.

Did you sell some above 20?

Very small amounts. I sold most below 4 Sad

. This time I'm hanging on tight. I'm not worried because my GPU investment has already been paid off and everything from here on is profit.

Rygon

hero member

Activity: 520

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Quote from: notme on July 31, 2012, 03:10:39 PM

Quote from: Spekulatius on July 31, 2012, 02:09:43 PM

+1 I dont have much anyway, so Im all in Grin

Exactly... I own my house, and most of my food is grown by me or my parents-in-law, so this decision can't make me homeless or starving. I make plenty of cash to pay the utilities. When I need something and they don't take bitcoin it's easy enough to have money in the bank the next day. I watch the markets carefully, and I got started right after bitcoin hit $1 for the first time, so I witnessed the giant bubble and the 6 months of pain. We're much healthier now.

I own my own house too, and make enough to get by, but it's hard to justify invest rainy-day funds or substantial portions of retirement accounts in BTC or BTC investments. It's still in the realm of speculative investing, much like a penny stock. The long-term fundamentals are strong, but I can't risk too much on something that could drop 50% in value overnight due to one website getting hacked (like Mtgox) or the government passing a law against BTC exchanges. On the other hand, it's becoming more and more clear that storing wealth in USD or investing in the stock market are break-even at best, and constantly being undermined by the Fed and the New York banksters...

Spekulatius

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Activity: 1022

Merit: 1000

Quote from: notme on July 31, 2012, 03:10:39 PM

Quote from: Spekulatius on July 31, 2012, 02:09:43 PM

+1 I dont have much anyway, so Im all in Grin

Exactly... I own my house, and most of my food is grown by me or my parents-in-law, so this decision can't make me homeless or starving. I make plenty of cash to pay the utilities. When I need something and they don't take bitcoin it's easy enough to have money in the bank the next day. I watch the markets carefully, and I got started right after bitcoin hit $1 for the first time, so I witnessed the giant bubble and the 6 months of pain. We're much healthier now.

Did you sell some above 20?

cbeast

donator

Activity: 1736

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Let's talk governance, lipstick, and pigs.

Bitcoin is going to be worth a lot. That is a certainty. There will be bubbles, but only relative to s short time frame. It is just silly that everyone that has extra cash laying around is not buying or mining Bitcoin. Silly indeed.

notme

legendary

Activity: 1904

Merit: 1002

Quote from: Spekulatius on July 31, 2012, 02:09:43 PM

+1 I dont have much anyway, so Im all in Grin

Exactly... I own my house, and most of my food is grown by me or my parents-in-law, so this decision can't make me homeless or starving. I make plenty of cash to pay the utilities. When I need something and they don't take bitcoin it's easy enough to have money in the bank the next day. I watch the markets carefully, and I got started right after bitcoin hit $1 for the first time, so I witnessed the giant bubble and the 6 months of pain. We're much healthier now.

Spekulatius

legendary

Activity: 1022

Merit: 1000

+1 I dont have much anyway, so Im all in Grin

dree12

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Merit: 1079

Quote from: Rygon on July 31, 2012, 12:27:11 PM

Quote from: notme on July 30, 2012, 02:58:36 PM

Quote from: smoothie on July 30, 2012, 02:56:40 PM

Quote from: notme on July 30, 2012, 02:52:02 PM

Not yet.

Translation: "I want to buy bitcoins at < $10 for the next year"

Not really. Not counting my house, most of my net worth is in BTC already.
Sure, it would be nice, but we're not there yet.

More power to you! I'm hoping for the best also, but my crystal ball isn't clear enough to justify more than 5% networth in BTC at this time. Anything past that and I wouldn't be sleeping well at night.

A significant amount of my net worth is in BTC. I think this is healthy as long as I can liquidate it.

Rygon

hero member

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Quote from: notme on July 30, 2012, 02:58:36 PM

Quote from: smoothie on July 30, 2012, 02:56:40 PM

Quote from: notme on July 30, 2012, 02:52:02 PM

Not yet.

Translation: "I want to buy bitcoins at < $10 for the next year"

Not really. Not counting my house, most of my net worth is in BTC already.
Sure, it would be nice, but we're not there yet.

More power to you! I'm hoping for the best also, but my crystal ball isn't clear enough to justify more than 5% networth in BTC at this time. Anything past that and I wouldn't be sleeping well at night.

Philj

sr. member

Activity: 388

Merit: 250

Quote from: smoothie on July 30, 2012, 02:59:28 PM

Quote from: notme on July 30, 2012, 02:58:36 PM

Quote from: smoothie on July 30, 2012, 02:56:40 PM

Quote from: notme on July 30, 2012, 02:52:02 PM

Not yet.

Translation: "I want to buy bitcoins at < $10 for the next year"

Not really. Not counting my house, most of my net worth is in BTC already.

Sure, it would be nice, but we're not there yet.

Translation: "I'm thinking about selling my house and buying bitcoins and being homeless for the next year while i await becoming a billionaire"

Cheesy

Sweet! I just got me a new retirement plan...

BoardGameCoin

sr. member

Activity: 283

Merit: 250

Quote from: ?? on ??

The $50k and $850k figures are flawed, the value would rise as they bought in so it would be some kind of compound interest figure.

The 50k figure is not flawed as a lower bound, and in fact would never happen in real life. The $850k figure is also not flawed as a lower bound, but has my guesstimate about 1/15th of an economy as being the maximum risk that China would be willing to forego its dollars for. If we instead do a population based split, where China takes a 5th of the BTC because they are a 5th of the world population, then the lower bound would be closer to ~$300k per BTC.

I think what you're forgetting as that, regardless of what price they buy in at, if the price doesn't rise to a sufficient level, they'll still have $ left over. I'm looking at a baseline, not a realistic estimate. My estimate would come in above all the numbers I've quoted, probably something like $1.25M per BTC.

Spekulatius