Will Retail Show Up This Cycle? - page 2.

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Quote from: Algominer2 on August 23, 2024, 09:40:19 AM

What do you think?

I think for BTC it doesn't really matter too much, but for alts we might not see the kind of returns everyone's expecting.

It would not matter for Bitcoin because regardless of the retail investors not having interest to invest as they did in 2021, the institutional investors are still going to pump the market to get high price as they can because they want to make profits from their investments and when Bitcoin is going up is the only way they can get the profits. They might not care too much about altcoins because alot of them are not focus on investing in altcoins but Bitcoin. Some exchanges are trying to push altcoins to the faces of institutional investors because they are listing as many of them but still they are not getting the attention. Only memecoins had a very bullish period but it did not last. Until Bitcoin has reduced in market dominance, there is no need to invest in any altcoins yet but to keep waiting.

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Quote from: MeGold666 on August 23, 2024, 10:19:04 AM

Quote from: Algominer2 on August 23, 2024, 09:40:19 AM

I think for BTC it doesn't really matter too much, but for alts we might not see the kind of returns everyone's expecting.

ahem

We cant compare some of the past outcome on market price and cryptocurrency entire networks as of then to what we are having now, it more better and appropriate if we can deal which each stages base of the economic conditions on ground, even though there is more to expect from the market this season and beyond, any little challenges felt from the economic and financial circumstance may not by this time have much impact on the value of the cryptos as we had during the covid years back.

Quote from: Algominer2 on August 23, 2024, 09:40:19 AM

I have a theory that retail may not ape in this cycle as much as they did in the last one.

Last bull run we had covid boredom (people sat at home with nothing to do) + a LOT of stimulus = a lot of new money flowing into crypto, especially alts.

Algominer2

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[/quote]

I also invested a little in altcoin and thought that making profit from it is as easy as previous cycles, but it is not. I realize that altcoins are having quite a hard time . Many people even predict that we will not have an altcoin season , what do you think ?
[/quote]

I think we will get an altcoin season but there's just SO MANY altcoins now and so many different narratives that it won't be as explosive as the last one. I hope I'm wrong of course!

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Quote from: Algominer2 on August 23, 2024, 09:40:19 AM

But it feels like retail are still licking their wounds from the last cycle and less likely to join the fun time round.

What do you think?

With each Bitcoin market cycle, it has noise on media that helps to attract new people joining this market. New people mean newbies and many of them are retail investors.

Bitcoin bubble index can satisfy your curiosity.
https://www.coinglass.com/pro/i/bitcoinBubble

You can use Google trend too.
https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=bitcoin&hl=en

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Quote from: Algominer2 on August 23, 2024, 09:40:19 AM

I have a theory that retail may not ape in this cycle as much as they did in the last one.

Last bull run we had covid boredom (people sat at home with nothing to do) + a LOT of stimulus = a lot of new money flowing into crypto, especially alts.

I don't really think that government stimulus contributed massively to the bull run last season. Statistics showed that most of the stimulus checks people received were spent on basic needs like food and other bills. Only a few percentage of these stimulus receivers invested from it. From these statistics, only 15% saved or invested.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2021/03/12/heres-how-americans-are-spending-those-coronavirus-stimulus-checks.html

Quote

This time we have the institutions of course, and I don't underestimate how big that could be for Bitcoin this cycle (although it could be more "slow and steady" than face-melting gains).

But it feels like retail are still licking their wounds from the last cycle and less likely to join the fun time round.

What do you think?

I think for BTC it doesn't really matter too much, but for alts we might not see the kind of returns everyone's expecting.

I am not aware of research that has studied the behaviour of Bitcoin retail investors in the current circle, it would have been helpful. The focus this period has been on institutional investors but retailers are observing the market and taking advantage of available opportunities. But I think the most attractive altcoin investment now is telegram shitcoins. And most of them have proved to be worthless.

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Quote from: MeGold666 on August 23, 2024, 10:19:04 AM

Quote from: Algominer2 on August 23, 2024, 09:40:19 AM

I think for BTC it doesn't really matter too much, but for alts we might not see the kind of returns everyone's expecting.

ahem
snip

This is not a chart of what is happening now and have you been following the market in recent months? Because if you follow the market closely, you will realize that most of the price increase is concentrated in bitcoin, only a few altcoins also have impressive growth. But with the recent correction, bitcoin has only lost nearly 30% of its value since ATH while many altcoins, especially shitcoins are seeing losses of up to 70%-80% . What is more ironic is that bitcoin price seems to have recovered above $60k but many altcoins have yet to see any significant recovery.

I also invested a little in altcoin and thought that making profit from it is as easy as previous cycles, but it is not. I realize that altcoins are having quite a hard time . Many people even predict that we will not have an altcoin season , what do you think ?

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The cycle before the last was a bigger pump and there was no locked wn boredom or stimulus. It may have been a added advantage but is not a determining factor for a bullrun.

One positive is that if we get less retail investors the drop from the next ATH will not be steep. They usually chase easy profits and make quick exits.

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Quote from: Algominer2 on August 23, 2024, 09:40:19 AM

I think for BTC it doesn't really matter too much, but for alts we might not see the kind of returns everyone's expecting.

ahem

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Quote from: Algominer2 on August 23, 2024, 09:57:50 AM

I guess typical retail behaviour is to arrive late and be exit liquidity for the OGs!

Mostly OG's dont put selling pressure on that market but yup if your OG = Institutional investment, yup they are gonna be the exit liquidity for the institutional investors, There are still 4 months to go for a new peak, From the beginning of this cycle my expectation by the end of 2024 was around 80k minimum and a 100k max, seems like its gonna be perfect speculation haha until now I'm pretty confident on it.

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Quote from: Algominer2 on August 23, 2024, 09:40:19 AM

I have a theory that retail may not ape in this cycle as much as they did in the last one.

Last bull run we had covid boredom (people sat at home with nothing to do) + a LOT of stimulus = a lot of new money flowing into crypto, especially alts.

This time we have the institutions of course, and I don't underestimate how big that could be for Bitcoin this cycle (although it could be more "slow and steady" than face-melting gains).

But it feels like retail are still licking their wounds from the last cycle and less likely to join the fun time round.

What do you think?

I think for BTC it doesn't really matter too much, but for alts we might not see the kind of returns everyone's expecting.

When I read the "licking their wounds" part, that cracked me up, the last cycle was fun for everyone I believe, only those who got in late came out with losses, but then, that's how it always is with every investment scheme and not just in crypto.
Although it also depends solely on the type of projectz the retails invested in in the last cycle, as I see that no just bitcoin, but a few number of Altcoins have also recovered and possibly touched or even past their all time high in the last cycle.

And coming back to the topic being discussed, retails are here already, but the issue is that, they are all focused on memecoin, majority of them are on telegram playing tap tap game to earn some free money instead of investing in the market, many of this guys are probably going to invest their money at some point, but like you said, I am also not expecting much for Altcoins in this coming season, though still worth taking a shot at some really good ones with great potentials.

Algominer2

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I guess typical retail behaviour is to arrive late and be exit liquidity for the OGs!

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We won’t see such an impact until after the current price cycle is over, as the rise in the price of Bitcoin and the increased potential to make money quickly and Bitcoin continuing to rise is what is driving more retail traders to join. Institutional investors have more market experience and better analysis than retail traders and therefore their investments will be mainly limited to 2024 and less in 2025.

Algominer2

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I have a theory that retail may not ape in this cycle as much as they did in the last one.

Last bull run we had covid boredom (people sat at home with nothing to do) + a LOT of stimulus = a lot of new money flowing into crypto, especially alts.

This time we have the institutions of course, and I don't underestimate how big that could be for Bitcoin this cycle (although it could be more "slow and steady" than face-melting gains).

But it feels like retail are still licking their wounds from the last cycle and less likely to join the fun time round.

What do you think?

I think for BTC it doesn't really matter too much, but for alts we might not see the kind of returns everyone's expecting.

Topic: Will Retail Show Up This Cycle? - page 2. (Read 345 times)