Topic: Will the bitcoin arms-race end with ASICs? (Read 6274 times)

Uhm. Yes, that's quantum computing.

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Don't forget we can easily replace the algorithm for mining at any time, as soon as enough miners agree on it. Not all algos are solveable by quantum computing.

Ente

There are other types of computers (mostly theoretical atm) that can give and check all possible answers in an equation.  Surely one will come out within 10 years.  It was mentioned they would just be for scientists and military, but if someone sees the profit to make one it will happen. 

I think the answer here is that there will always be encryption of some sort.  With greater computing power comes greater ability to encrypt.

I'm confident quantum computers will come and they will, of course, be light-years beyond amazing for code-cracking and Bitcoin mining. But having said that, we are still a very long, long way from anything approaching a quantum comp that you can pick up from a local hardware store. It may not even be economically feasible to do this in ... what 40 years?

I haven't been keepin' up with my tech news reading as much these days, but a working reliable early expensive quantum-based computer available even for researchers to order and purchase is at least 10 years away, I'd imagine. So basically so far in the future of BTC that its not worth considering (due to the rate of change). Early working and reliable q. comp's will solely be the property of the NSA and other similar power entities' code-breaking organizations for the first stretch.

Since ASICS are by their nature specialized circuits for mining, they are the end-all for silicon-based, traditional computing Bitcoin mining. Of course we will see Moore's law progression in efficiency for ASICS as tech develops, but I can't see any disruptive change coming anytime reasonable soon that will be anything like the shift from CPUs to GPUs, and now GPUs to ASICS.  If anyone else has any ideas on any potential disruptive tech that could do bring this kind of change besides quantum computing, please share, I'd love to hear about it.

Anyone stealing Bitcoins with quantum computers (or any other technology) is doing a 'Mutually Assured Destruction' of Bitcoin.  Once word is out that Bitcoins can be stolen via brute force attack on the blockchain, it's value as a secured medium of transaction is gone and the price plummets near instantly.

The game will be over for everyone.  Only some entity who wants to destroy Bitcoin would do this.

I hope this can never happen.

..that's what we thought about ASICs just a year ago too ;-)

Ente

It is going to take some time to get to 28nm. 

Sounds like your Compsci 101 failed you. Shor's Algo will not break hashing algo's like SHA, Grover's will. Shors will break ECDSA (bitcoin signing) by solving the ECDLP. I don't expect someone in Compsci 101 to know all of that though.

asics cost about $0.10 each to make after your R&D costs are realized.  The more centralized bitcoin mining becomes, the higher the price will go and the more incentive there will be for people to mine (even small amounts would be worth it if the price was sufficiently high)

To date, I think they can formulate about the first 10 digits, effectively with a standard computer, of any sha2-cypher. Beyond that, you have to just use brute-force, and "hope" for a solution, or a collision.

But as for ASICs... all they will do is squash out anyone with lower hash-rates, just as the GPU miners did to CPU miners. There is still only x-number of coins made per day, so the market will go from having several thousands of miners, down to about a few hundred, and then down to about three. The last three will be the ones who actually manufacture the ASICs... and I doubt that will be the ASIC producers we see here today. (BFL, AVALON, ASIC-Miner)... but it could be them... in the end, fighting over the same devalued coins they caused to devalue. (Using our money to make them what they are today. While they leave us behind.)

Funny thing is... once they all have 50THs each... that will make 49THs more than is required to "process" the few actual transactions that are trying to get in to the list, to be processed... (See, that will be three individual "processing gateways/servers", because there will be no more of the thousands of "GPU servers", running to collect the orders. Thus, even if the price does not fall, few will actually be able to get an actual transaction done. Unless they scatter the machines all across the world, and buy lots of internet connections, and then they will be in massive debit.)

Once the price hits $1000 per BTC... All the GPU's will have moved-on, and all the mini-ASICs below 1.5THs will be gone too. I am guessing, by income-tax time... next year. (It was already up to about 1/4 of that price, and people paid it...)

Then they will be forced to do a pump-and-dump of BTC into every other still-thriving alt-coin on the market. (Where all the GPUs will be mining... and they will try to rape us again... It will not work. We will just make a new system, that avoids all this horrible loss, and has a little more stability. Then they can come back and use the machines to HELP us instead of RAPE us.)

ASIC = AIDS
(Just like GPU was AIDS to CPU's)

But AMD didn't turn around and build mining rigs for themselves, and then stop selling us video cards... They made us more video cards! ASIC manufactures are building 1000 for them, and 1 for us... thus, selling us back 0.1% of the market, that we helped them build, with our cash.

Well, if they do come up with a working, functionally complete quantum computer SHA256 calculations become trivial. I don't expect we'll have one any less than 20 years from now. They've only just barely got the first hybrid quantum chips working. I'd love to be wrong though, there are a lot of things we could do with quantum computers that current digital computers suck at.

ASICs will probably get better, especially if fabbed at smaller processes but quantum computers change the game enough that an SHA or scrypt-based Bitcoin would likely not survive. Quantum computers would change the field of cryptography significantly. Because these algorithms are all based on the sums of large primes Shor's algorithm could be used to solve them vast orders of magnitude faster than current computers. Fast enough that one system could conceivably calculate out any and all possible answers fairly quickly. That's just simple COMPSCI 101 stuff.

This is one of the reasons that Bitcoin will not last indefinitely, I think it has the possibility to last for quite a while but if they ever build a fully functional quantum computer system the potential to bring down the network is there and eventually someone will.

... kick ass asics. 

And cold fusion.

Yes, because quantum computers haven't been heralded as the god send for the last 2 decades have they... You think they're going to make their way into bitcoin miner's hands over research, space and defense? Once they actually exist?

Asics aren't the end by a long shot. Soon we will have super asics and then quantum asics and then super quantum asics and then...

2140, so still a long way off.

I think that the current (first) gen ASICs are just the beginning. There is still a huge room for improvement. Liken them to a Commodore 64 compared to a Core i7!

ASIC is a general term. GPU were once ASICS if you look back at Apple's Quickdraw accelerator card.

The current crop of BTC mining ASIC's are crude inefficient, there is at least an order of magnitude hash rate to be gained with better smaller designs. I mean lets face it most of the chips out there are 110nm fab clocking at 300MHz. That's  90's tech. not 21st century.

WTB dead drive for 'research purposes'

It only ends for new BTC, but it will continue for transaction fees.

It will not be the end with the first generation asics.  However, it probably would be if BTC maintained its price, but as many people point out it is growing exponentially. Therefore, while growth in difficulty will outpace the increase in BTC value, mining will still be profitable beyond the first big difficulty increase.

I think there's enough inertia in the current migration to ASICs to drive difficulty past 100M this year. So much of the cost of hardware is not ASIC, so I don't think Moore's law will help for a while.

I guess it depends on the value of the currency.

Am I wrong, but doesn't mining end around 2040?